Fantasy Basketball: Jokić vs. Wembanyama — who should be the No. 1 pick?

Choosing between Nikola Jokić, the seasoned, can’t-miss MVP with a track record of fantasy dominance, and Victor Wembanyama, the electrifying new phenom, presents a unique dilemma for fantasy basketball managers with the first overall pick.

Sure, the choice may be easy for some, but others will wrestle with the allure of proven success versus exploring untapped potential. There’s ultimately no wrong way to go, but here are some considerations I’d debate with such an advantageous draft position this season.

The incumbent 1.01: Nikola Jokić

The model of consistency, Jokić has owned fantasy basketball for almost half a decade. Here’s a breakdown of his fantasy performances over the past four seasons, where he’s captured three MVPs, a Finals MVP and an NBA Championship.

Data courtesy of Basketball Monster and Hashtag Basketball

When you combine his per-game performance with his unmatched durability (totals), he’s been a no-brainer selection at the top of draft boards. He doesn’t miss games and fantasy is about stat accumulation. Jokić has more than earned it.

The Joker has 114 triple-doubles since 2019, the most in the NBA over that span. You’ll always see his name among the leaders in rebounds and assists per game and the only areas where he’s below league average are in turnovers (understood, given his usage) and three-pointers made. And to all of the “Jokić doesn’t play defense” haters, he’s averaged 2.2 stocks per game since 2019. Cut it out.

Then there’s the efficiency. With over 60% of Jokić’s shots coming from within 3-10 feet and 80% of his field goals being of the 2-point variety, he takes advantage of mismatches and finds ways to score closest to the rim. Jokić has shot over 56% from the field over the last four years and has been between an 81-82% free-throw shooter.

I’ll spare you from going down the rabbit hole of his advanced metrics (PER, win shares, BPM and VORP), but just know he’s been in a tier of his own.

He’s well in his into prime, turning 30 years old in February and, after securing his third MVP last year, there are only a few players who can hang with the Serbian legend. He’s one of the easiest players to build a team around and is one of the most versatile players in fantasy.

The challenger: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

Are you ready to break fantasy?

If the answer is yes, then draft Wemby No. 1. Whereas Jokić offers you the highest, safest floor available, Wembanyama has no ceiling. Here are some figures to prove that his rookie year is the start of something epic.

• First rookie since Karl-Anthony Towns to finish top-12 in per-game and total value in category formats

• Second-most fantasy points scored in rookie season (3,260 FPs through week 24)

• Finished top-10 in per-game and total value in points formats

• Led the league in total blocks (254) and blocks per game (3.6)

• Led all rookies in points, rebounds and blocks per game

• Led all rookies in total points, rebounds, blocks and steals

• 10th in the NBA in double-doubles (43) and triple-doubles (2)

• Joined Jamaal Tinsley as the only other rookie to record a 5×5 line (at least five pts, rebs, asts, stls and blks)

• First player since Michael Jordan to record five blocks and five steals in consecutive games

• 1 of 8 rookies in NBA history to average at least 20 points, 10 rebounds and three assists per game

• 1 of 6 rookies in NBA history average at least 20 points, 10 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 1.5 blocks per game

• The only player to average 21+ points in less than 30 minutes per night last season

• 1 of 9 players in NBA history to average at least 21 points in less than 30 minutes per game

• 1 of 5 players in NBA history with a 30% usage rate in his rookie year

I could find more, but hopefully, you get the point. Wemby is beyond an exceptional talent, but now that we’ve gone through some fun stats, let’s get to the case for him being the 1.01.

Wemby won’t match Jokić’s efficiency from the field or his assist production, but in scoring, rebounding and steals, he’s on par along with two defining outliers — blocks and 3s.

Wembanyama is the odds-on favorite to lead the league in blocks (by a considerable margin). His stock potential sets him into an echelon we haven’t seen in fantasy since Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson. He could legitimately be a three-point-shooting David Robinson, which is scary AF.

For the uninitiated, the Admiral averaged 21/11/3 with four stocks for his career — put some respeck on his name.

There’s a distinct advantage to having a player who’s proven capable of contributing to every statistical category, and that’s Wemby. And let’s be honest — this is a game, and having a nightly highlight reel leading your squad makes the experience much more enjoyable.

I’m not naive to the inherent risks of buying into the Wembanyama hype. Jokić’s durability amid a load management era matters. Availability is sometimes the best ability. Still, Wemby played 71 games in his rookie campaign, and despite being handled with kid gloves for the first half of the season, it was probably the best thing for his long-term health. Being a per-minute beast reduces some risk because, even if his minutes get monitored periodically, you’ll still reap some valuable production.

My Verdict:

I have Wembanyama at the top spot but I get it if you think Jokić is the right move — he most certainly is. It’s a win-win situation.

But scared money don’t make no money, and everything is pointing to Wembanyama becoming a cheat code for fantasy basketball.