Fantasy Football Fact or Fluke: Examining RB results after three weeks

The thing I love most, or at least love to hate most, in fantasy football is the complete and utter disrespect it has for the rules. There’s a lot of “It’s Week 3 and we think we know what’s going on now” content out right now, so I’m going to take a slightly different approach; a wider angle look at the season so far relative to our self-imposed fantasy rules.

The point of this column is to separate the fantasy performances we believe we can trust going forward — good or bad — from those that we think are random, fluky one-offs. We’re never going to get them all right. Take poor Isaiah Likely, for example. I maintain that the Ravens were at their best when he was a featured part of the pass game, and that is a role that has a ton of fantasy value. But I can’t make them throw the ball to him.

I’m hoping that by zooming out we can arrive at some conclusions that will help us make as many good decisions as we can in Week 4 and beyond. The two fantasy “rules” I want to focus on today are 1) older (29-30 years old) running backs are washed/ready to fall off the fantasy cliff and 2) injury replacements you pick up off waivers should be stashed not started (in Weeks 2-3).

Regarding Rule 1, the early rounds (especially Round 1) were full of young running backs (minus Christian McCaffrey) who have been outscored by a slew of Round 2+ veterans. Is this trend going to last all season? Let’s dive in:

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

Kamara is one of several backs in his age-29 season. Thanks to a bonkers Week 2, he is your second-highest-scoring fantasy back despite being drafted as RB17. He has yet to disappoint his fantasy managers, however, with at least 110 combined yards in each game and five total touchdowns. Even as Derek Carr and Rashid Shaheed came back to Earth in Week 3, Kamara was still a focal point of the Saints’ offense.

While we typically see opposing pass games dominate the Eagles’ weak secondary — and Chris Olave does stand out in that regard — Kamara was nearly as good. New Orleans does have some tricky matchups ahead and I’m not convinced Kamara stays healthy with this heavy usage through all of them, but start him if you’ve got him (he’s not a huge acquisition target and I would happily trade him away for an upgrade at WR).

Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are the surprise team of 2024 behind Sam Darnold (!?!), Justin Jefferson and of course, Jones. Jones is the under-the-radar piece here, as another aging back who will turn 30 before the season ends. He was a bit down against San Francisco in Week 2 but is the RB11 in half-PPR scoring with an average of 16.2 fantasy points per game, ahead of Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs and Travis Etienne, who were all drafted ahead of him.

On the other hand, his workload has been variable to start the season and he missed significant time due to injury last year. Therefore, I’m most confident with Jones in good matchups, but when healthy, he should continue to provide value — especially looking forward to Week 4’s revenge game vs. Green Bay.

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

What do these top three have in common besides aging and being on new teams? They scored four rushing touchdowns through the first three weeks. Baltimore is seemingly trying out different game plans each week, with varying success. They finally got the big W over Dallas this weekend and Henry was a huge part of the game plan.

His usage has increased each week and with it, his YPC (6.0 in Week 3 up from 3.5 in Week 1), rushing and receiving yards and touchdowns. I do think Week 3 was a ceiling game for Henry, but he has some nice matchups on the horizon and should be able to produce in the 15-20 fantasy points per game neighborhood vs. Buffalo, Cincinnati, Washington and Tampa Bay.

Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles

I can think of exactly one person who had Barkley as the RB1 this summer but here we are. Averaging 26.5 half-PPR fantasy points per game, Barkley leads not only all RBs but all players through the first three weeks of the season. At age 27 in his seventh season, Barkley is younger than the rest of these guys, but he appears to be in his prime. This is a fantasy-friendly team for RBs and could be even more so if the trend toward fewer Jalen Hurts tush pushes continues (he and Barkley have split four total inside-the-five-yard-line carries evenly, each scoring once).

Barkley does have the second-highest carry rate, with an average of 21 per game, but he’s getting a lot of work done in space, averaging 5.6 YPC. Barkley might not remain No. 1 all year but should continue providing extreme value to his managers. A definite hold or acquisition target in all leagues.

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And how are the young first-round RBs faring?

Breece Hall, NY Jets

As has been noted by others, Hall is one of the only good first-round picks this season. The second-year back is not posting gaudy efficiency numbers and has had some ball security issues (two fumbles, one lost already), but he is playing a big part in the pass game (19 targets, T-most in league among RBs).

Among starting RBs, only Jones (30%) has a higher target per route run percentage than Hall (28%). Hall is the first-round pick that someone would have to pry out of my cold dead hands.

De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

It appears that I can’t even type the word Miami without grimacing. They look BAD — on both sides of the ball. Achane was looking like a league winner again before Week 3, averaging 26 fantasy points per game. He is still tied with Hall for most RB targets, but until this offense figures out how to move the ball and sustain drives, Achane is going to be hampered. It’s a wait-and-see-who-plays-QB situation but I’m not optimistic for any Dolphins skill players at this point.

Kyren Williams, LA Rams

Williams was a somewhat controversial pick at the turn in drafts this year as fans and media were gaga over Blake Corum in the preseason. The first two games were good, not great, for Williams, but it wasn’t for lack of involvement. He boasts one of the highest utility rates among running backs in the league, handling about 80% of the Rams’ carries and 100% of carries inside the five.

The fact that he doubled his fantasy scoring against the 49ers in Week 3 when the receiving options were … limited … says a lot about his toughness and ability. Aside from a Week 6 bye, the upcoming schedule is favorable for Williams and his fantasy managers.

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

There is a B. Robinson fantasy value in the 2024 season, but unfortunately, it’s not Bijan in Round 1. There is still time, and the fact that he finally scored in Week 3 was nice, but we are not happy with his level of production. Utilization isn’t the problem; he’s in on 84% of snaps including all of the goal-line and passing downs. His efficiency wasn’t bad in Weeks 1 and 2, with his 4-5 targets per game helping him in PPR formats, but the Chiefs proved he is not invincible.

I’m afraid it will get worse in Week 4 vs. the Saints, and there are only a couple of bright spots in the schedule upcoming. Given that the Falcons suffered two offensive line injuries this weekend, I am concerned about Robinson not paying off his first-round price tag.

With respect to Rule 2 as mentioned in the intro, injury replacements have been really good … on fantasy benches. A savvy manager will pick up the hot waiver claim in these early weeks, but if you’re not the person who lost the starter, your team might still feel super loaded. Who are you benching for the real-life fill-in player? There might be some value in simply blocking others in your league from adding him, but let’s look at some of the hot backups and assess their future value.

Jordan Mason, San Francisco 49ers

By now, Mason is starting in most fantasy leagues, but it wasn’t the case in Week 1. What now? His rushing attempts, yardage, YPC and scoring are all trending down over the first three weeks. Teams are keying in on Mason as the premier threat, which is enabling Brock Purdy to air it out.

It didn’t help that rookie Isaac Guerendo got five carries in Week 3. Still, Mason is “the guy,” playing 80% of the snaps and getting 71% of the carries. He had five RZ rushing attempts in Week 3 alone. He should get back in the end zone vs. New England in Week 4.

Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks

He was excellent in Week 3 against Miami’s so-called defense, but Kenneth Walker III is hoping to return for Week 4 and it’s a difficult matchup with the Lions, who are allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing rushers this season (a continuation from last season). It’s time to look for another option if you’ve been enjoying the Charbonnet experience lately.

Carson Steele, Kansas City Chiefs

In this case, it was smart to wait and see, because Steele certainly did not take the field on a storming alligator. Still, he managed 71 yards on 17 carries and had six RZ rushing attempts in Week 3. He remains startable in Week 4 if you’re desperate at the position (who isn’t?).

Cam Akers, Houston Texans

We’ve been down this road before, so I understand if there was some hesitance in blithely starting Akers against the Vikings, who appear to have the best defense in football. While game script played a role, Akers’ nine carries for 21 yards were abysmal by any standards. He did score a receiving touchdown to produce a mediocre fantasy day. Based on what James Cook did to the Jaguars on MNF, Akers could be more valuable in Week 4 if Joe Mixon misses another game.

BONUS: Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Jennings is the name on everyone’s lips this week, coming off a staggering 11/175/3 line vs. the Rams in Week 3. Yes, we knew George Kittle and Deebo Samuel were out and a few people added Jennings (but he is still a free agent in a 12-team, 30-player dynasty league I’m in), but most (all?) didn’t start him. “Let’s wait and see … it’s all going to be Brandon Aiyuk,” we said.

Will Jennings put up these numbers next week? Heck no. But the Niners do have some nice matchups ahead and Jennings is not a fluke; he has the hands and route-running skills to make the most of a good opportunity.