Fantasy Football Fact or Fluke: Was Week 5’s scoring bonanza sustainable?

Fantasy points can be accrued without actual NFL points being scored, but there is a general correlation between team scoring and fantasy player performance. A team is only as good as its individual players perform any given Sunday and player performance depends on having the right teammates and coaching … and the right opponent.

Week 5 made headlines for its several high scoring games, including Baltimore vs. Cincinnati and Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville. Despite perceptions of 2024 being a low-scoring year, prior to Week 5, we were averaging 21.58 PPG compared to 21.76 in 2023. Per game scoring has been remarkably consistent over the last decade, with 2020 a notable high of 23.34 PPG. That year featured 21st century highs in passing touchdowns (871) and rushing touchdowns (535), each by a wide margin.

Week 5 yielded an exciting 24.47 PPG, bringing our season average to 22.05 PPG.

Breaking that down, eight teams — Baltimore (41), Cincinnati (38), Indianapolis (34), Chicago (36), Atlanta (36), Jacksonville (37), Denver (34) and the NY Giants (29) — outscored their previous 2024 season average by more than 10 points in Week 5. Only two teams, Buffalo and New Orleans, managed to score 10 or more points fewer than their season average in Week 5.

Looking at the role of matchups in the high-scoring week, only Indianapolis and Baltimore were facing defenses that had allowed top 10 points per game (great matchups with Cincy and Jax, respectively). The Giants, Jaguars and Falcons faced defenses that had ranked in the bottom third of the league in points allowed.

This is to say that we can only predict so much based on past performance.

When considering future performance, we can lean on the regression argument to some extent, but not completely. For one thing, the league changes from year to year. As a prime example, Washington is the highest-scoring team in the league. People thought Jayden Daniels would have an impact — for fantasy, at least — but few, if any, saw this offense catapult from (almost) worst to first. On the other hand, New Orleans, a team we expected to be average at best got off to an incredibly hot, unsustainable start (92 points in the first two games), but is regressing before our very eyes. Injuries have impacted Miami’s and Philadelphia’s starts, two teams that are positive regression candidates once healthy.

Let’s take a look at this week’s fantasy superstars with an eye toward figuring out which are sustainable (fact) and which are mere happenstance (fluke).

Baltimore: Isaiah Likely, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Lamar Jackson

Jackson threw a perfect game here, with 348 passing yards and four touchdowns, adding 55 rushing yards with zero mistakes. He completed passes to nine different players, but Zay Flowers was the big winner (7/111), even without making it into the end zone. Likely caught two short touchdowns, which is where he excels, but his usage (and yardage) was less than stellar (three targets for an 8% target share, 13 yards).

Mark Andrews is the name many wanted to see here, but it just isn’t happening. Sure, 4-55-0 is his best mark of the season, but it’s not good. Andrews remains unstartable as long as there are streaming options – like Tyler Kraft in Week 5 — available to you.

Henry needs no space here, because if anything, his 92 yards and a touchdown was a down game for him.

Cincinnati: JaMarr Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow

Chase finally had his WR1 week and is firmly in always-start territory, along with Burrow. This team is back in working order after a slow beginning. Up next are the New York Giants, whose defense has been pretty stout, ranking 21st in points allowed. That’s saying something considering four of their opponents have been Minnesota, Dallas, Washington and Seattle.

Although the Giants are an above-average fantasy matchup for QBs, their DvP against running backs is less favorable. Still, I wanted to point out that Chase Brown is outscoring Zach Moss the last two games. This is going to remain a committee unless Moss misses time with his ankle injury, but it appears that the preseason hype around Brown was not entirely misplaced. I’d wait for a better matchup, perhaps Cleveland in Week 7 or Las Vegas in Week 9 to put my full trust in Brown (unless Moss is out).

Atlanta: Kirk Cousins, Drake London, Darnell Mooney

Yes, we liked that.

Since this was the Thursday game, I won’t rehash all the excitement but instead look ahead. Next up is Carolina, so it can’t get much better for the Falcons and their fans/fantasy managers. This is a start ‘em if you’ve got ‘em situation, including Bijan Robinson (with prayers to the football gods).

The good news is that Tyler Allgeier isn’t really cutting into Robinson’s workload any more than he has been, around half the RB opportunities. I’d be willing to bet that Cousins won’t throw for 500 yards again this year, and the Panthers are a team you really want to run the ball against (more prayers).

Chicago: Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, D’Andre Swift

I’ve been fairly critical of Williams and the Bears’ start to 2024 offensively. Prior to this game, they’d been in the middle of the pack in terms of points scored, but closer to the bottom in passing touchdowns (0.8 per game) and passing yards (191 per game).

However, things had been trending up to the awesome performance Williams gave in Week 5. It was his third game without a turnover, and his two passing touchdowns to Moore marked his fifth in the last three games. His efficiency and accuracy have improved, but it is still worth noting that his two best games have come against sub-par defenses in Indianapolis and Carolina.

Moore was clearly the favorite target of Williams, and more success through the air has allowed Swift to post back-to-back fantasy-match-winning lines. I don’t think we’re done with the growing pains in Chicago, but I do think they’ll be masked by another delicious matchup with Jacksonville in Week 6. I’m a full-go on Chicago this weekend.

Indianapolis: Joe Flacco, Alec Pierce

See the note above; I’m not wacko for Flacco, but the Jaguars’ non-existent D can work wonders on a QB. No team has given up more fantasy points to the QB or WR positions this season. They’re also fourth against running backs. Pierce was the biggest beneficiary of Flacco’s big arm, catching three of three targets for 134 yards and a score, but Josh Downs (12) and Michael Pittman Jr. (8) were the WRs the QB was looking for most often.

Pierce has earned some big-play street cred this season, but I usually prefer to bank on opportunities, especially in PPR or half-PPR leagues. Up next is Tennessee, a team allowing an average number of points per game, but well below league average in DvP to QB, RB and WR (32nd). I’ll be largely avoiding the pass game of the Colts, even though Anthony Richardson is expected back. Of course, it depends on your other options, but this looks like a low-scoring, defense-oriented game as of now.

Jacksonville: Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr., Tank Bigsby

I thought we’d get a decent game from Lawrence, and Thomas Jr. is a star already, but even I didn’t expect this much offense. It is hard to lose 10 games in a row with as much talent as the Jaguars have. This was Lawrence’s first 300+ yard game of the season, and the second in a row in which he threw for two touchdowns. Promising signs. Thomas more than doubled everyone else’s target share with eight, catching five for 122 yards and a score.

Bigsby was the biggest surprise of the day, out-carrying Travis Etienne Jr. 13-6 and averaging an amazing 7.8 yards per carry with two touchdowns. He’s a guy to watch. I’m sold on him as a player, but I don’t think Jacksonville is done with Etienne and this performance could motivate him next week vs. Chicago. That game is in London, and I’m picking the Bears to win time of possession and take advantage of the Jaguars’ weak defense.

If I can start someone like Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton or Derek Carr (if healthy) over Lawrence, I’m doing it.

Denver: Bo Nix, Javonte Williams

Denver exceeded its season average in Week 5 by 18.5 points, nearly doubling it. Still, Nix is the only player worth a mention here. He accounted for three touchdowns, one a goal-line rush, and managed just over 200 passing yards. Remaining mistake-free was key to the Broncos’ success again, and Week 5 marked the third game with no interceptions by Nix.

A divisional matchup with L.A. is on tap next, and the Chargers are surprisingly the stingiest defense in the league so far, allowing a mere 12.5 PPG (vs. Raiders, Panthers, Steelers and Chiefs). Nix completed passes to 11 different players, including three TEs and a fullback. Javonte Williams caught 5/50 yards and added 61 rushing yards to earn the most valuable skill player honors, but it wasn’t matchup-winning stuff. None of the Denver skill players can be trusted in your fantasy lineups. Give them an extra dose of caution in Week 6.

NY Giants: Daniel Jones, Darius Slayton, Tyrone Tracy, Jr.

Jones has quietly produced three fantasy-starter-worthy games this season, in Weeks 2, 3 and 5. Those correspond to his easiest matchups but Week 5 was notable for the lack of Malik Nabers, who could probably make ME throwing the football look halfway decent. It was Jones’ third 200+ yard, 2-TD, errorless effort this year.

I struggle to buy in 100% as someone who was left holding this particular bag last year, but Jones can and will provide some fantasy-relevant performances.

I think Slayton and his 8/122/1 on 11 targets is unrepeatable. He’s well-known to fantasy managers for showing up and then ducking out. Put it in the fluke column. The actually interesting development here is Tracy, who took 18 carries for 129 yards.

That efficiency and usage is what allowed the Giants the opportunity to win the game this week. Devin Singletary is out with a groin injury, which can be a multi-week thing. Make sure Tracy is not available in your league as the Giants get the Bengals next week. It’s a more favorable passing matchup than running one, but in terms of points allowed, Cincy is No. 2.