Fantasy Football Fact or Fluke: Who’s surprising in 2024 (and how to adjust expectations moving forward)

It’s a big milestone, being about a quarter of the way through the fantasy football season. A lot of us use this mark as a trust check — which offenses are truly good, which defenses can be exploited, and which fantasy commodities are the real deal? It’s the perfect time for a bit of reflection on the current fantasy landscape.

Many of us don’t seem to have that much to reflect on — our roster is just a trail of little red O’s. Also, some of us have a hard time reflecting without emotion. We’re tied to our draft picks in very personal ways; every touchdown or 40-yard run is a validation, while every drop or overthrown bomb pass is a mix of anger and shame. Weekly ups and downs can drive us almost as crazy as consistent disappointments.

To move forward effectively, it’s important to set emotion aside, ignore draft capital or ADP, and just evaluate the players you have on your roster or could obtain via trade or waivers.

In this edition of Fact or Fluke, I’ll reflect on players drafted in the first six rounds who are performing contrary to expectations, either overall or in Week 4 specifically. We’ll decide who’s an every-week starter no matter what and who’s a matchup-based play (with extra focus on the Week 5 matchup) to give you the most actionable information.

Quarterbacks

Through four weeks, the top-seven scoring QBs on the season are Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott and Justin Fields. Meanwhile, some star QBs have disappointed due to injuries around them or their own inherent struggles: Patrick Mahomes (QB15), C.J. Stroud (QB12) and Trevor Lawrence (QB22) have failed to live up to their draft-day expectations, while Anthony Richardson (QB20) started the season hot but has a string of single-digit fantasy outings since. His Week 4 injury, a hip pointer, won’t keep him sidelined for as long as some initially feared.

Patrick Mahomes was the highest-drafted among these quarterbacks who have let their managers down. Losing Isaiah Pacheco, Hollywood Brown and now Rashee Rice hasn’t been great for Mahomes, who keeps finding ways to win games anyway. He gets a tough Week 5 matchup with New Orleans, whose defense, while allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game, ranks among the best defenses in points (and fantasy points to QB) allowed and the best in passing touchdowns allowed.

There’s a reason a player of Mahomes’ caliber gets some leeway in fantasy advice articles, but I wouldn’t hesitate to bench him for Jordan Love or Brock Purdy in Week 5 based on the numbers and matchups. If you have Fields or Daniels, you’re obviously starting one of them over Mahomes this weekend.

C.J. Stroud had his best game of the season in Week 4’s win over Jacksonville, with 345 yards passing and two scores. His down numbers in Weeks 2-3 were frustrating, but at least he’s performing in good matchups. Buffalo in Week 5 should be a fun one to watch but might not produce fantasy fireworks for Stroud given that Buffalo is an above-average defense in terms of points allowed, passing yards allowed and fantasy points to QBs allowed.

Trevor Lawrence has a chance to bounce back in Week 5 given the Jaguars face the No. 2 defense for fantasy points allowed to QBs. No. 1 is Jacksonville themselves, so we all hope Richardson will be back in action. If not, Joe Flacco is a worthy spot-start in what should be a high-scoring game. Lawrence threw two touchdown passes in Week 4, but his yardage was still low (169 yards passing), which is a death blow to fantasy managers given his lack of rushing potential.

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The takeaway

It’s much harder for pass-dominant QBs to reach or exceed fantasy value compared to a dual-threat rushing QB. You’ve been warned for years, but reaching in drafts for pocket passers — even Mahomes — is not the best strategy. Six of the current top-10 QBs in fantasy scoring have more than 100 rushing yards. Sam Darnold is the only one in the top five without a rushing touchdown. It’s much easier to get a hit on a later-round rushing-upside guy (à la Fields or Daniels) than to predict a Darnold or Mayfield breakout season.

Running backs

It was a quiet week for Breece Hall (RB16) and another quiet week for Bijan Robinson (RB21) and Rachaad White (RB35). James Cook (RB10) also took a big step back, equaling his 39-yard output from Week 3, but failing to score a fantasy line-saving touchdown vs. the Ravens. On the other hand, just when most people had given up, D’Andre Swift (RB24) turned in the third-best RB performance of the week with 26 fantasy points.

Breece Hall and the Jets’ loss to Denver at home was alarming on several fronts, but Hall did not look like a fantasy go-getter at all. Hall gets the Vikings in London for Week 5, a defense that allows the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. He’s done enough to warrant another start (and honestly, who else do you have?), but another lackluster effort would have me worried to the point of benching him if I had another option.

Bijan Robinson ought to give managers a pleasant surprise in Week 5 as the Falcons take on a Bucs team that has been overly generous to opposing backs, giving up the 10th most fantasy points and third-most rushing touchdowns per game. If he doesn’t produce here, I’ll be concerned, not least because his usage — in terms of snaps, routes run, and third downs — is dropping, while Tyler Allgeier’s is increasing.

D’Andre Swift won you your week if you had to start him, and I’m frankly curious how so many managers avoided it (59%), as I couldn’t in one of my leagues. I’m giving the lion’s share of credit here to the matchup, as the Rams haven’t stopped anyone on the ground this season. The good news for Swift managers is that next up is Carolina — an even juicier matchup for opposing backs (second-most fantasy points allowed). I’m starting Swift again in Week 5, on the basis of the matchup and the fact that Recency Bias isn’t always wrong. Swift looked motivated to make an impact and that’s something the Bears desperately need.

James Cook peaked big in Week 2 with his three total touchdowns but hasn’t been an amazing fantasy back outside of that one game. Serviceable, yes, before Sunday night, but not a league-winner. His one target in a game where the Bills were down big from the get-go was alarming, especially given that Ray Davis wasn’t effective either (1.7 YPC). Ty Johnson got the lone touchdown but wasn’t leaned on in the loss (three carries).

Lots of credit to Baltimore’s defense in this one, and so I’m heading into Week 5 with some optimism that Cook rebounds against the Texans, who are an average rushing defense. Cook is the clear lead back here, with no alarming changes in usage rate in this Buffalo backfield. While the post-Week 2 hype might have been overblown, Cook will remain a fantasy starter with some weeks just better than others.

The takeaway

It’s time to think about stockpiling some potentially explosive backup running backs if your starters have disappointed you so far. Consider snapping up Tank Bigsby, Bucky Irving, Braelon Allen or Emanuel Wilson if you can. Each would be a Jordan-Mason-esque game-changer if anything happened to the starting running back on his respective team.

Wide receivers

There’s been somewhat less volatility at the WR position than others this season. Guys we thought would be good are good. Some, like Nico Collins, Malik Nabers, and Jayden Reed, are better than expected, but you’ll get no complaints from me. All should have been firmly in starting territory from Week 1. Jauan Jennings might be more than a one-off fluke as he followed up his ridiculous Week 3 with a very solid 3/88 game in Week 4’s win.

Garrett Wilson (WR43) is the biggest disappointment so far (aside from WR or QB injuries). He should be getting double-digit targets every game and averaging far more than 8.4 fantasy points per game, but in his (and the Jets’) defense, he has faced some difficult matchups. All of them except New England (where he had his best game and scored) are in the bottom third of the league in DvP to wide receivers.

The takeaway

Better days are ahead for a player of this caliber as long as the Jets can keep Rodgers healthy. Although Minnesota has been a great defense so far, they do allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing WRs. Fingers crossed for a Week 5 breakout game.

Tight ends

The wasteland of fantasy football is the tight end position. The real solution to this problem is to make it optional as an extra flex spot, commissioners! The only tight ends that were drafted in 12-team leagues to score touchdowns this year — one each — are Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid, Pat Freiermuth and George Kittle (2). Dallas Goedert leads the position thanks to weeks without A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, while Brock Bowers, Cole Kmet and Isaiah Likely all total more fantasy points than Kincaid, Pitts, Travis Kelce, Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews and Jake Ferguson.

The takeaway

You’re going to keep starting Goedert, Kittle and Ferguson, who along with Kelce, Kincaid and McBride are enjoying a high usage rate in both snaps and target share. Notable, too, is Hunter Henry who’s enjoying 20% of the targets and 26% of the air yards for New England. The latest injury to Rice is likely to force an uptick in Kelce’s fantasy production, but I’m hard-pressed to find an excuse to keep starting Andrews, LaPorta or Pitts.