Fantasy Football Make or Break: Big names with big problems and bye-week booms

With six teams on a bye in Week 12, fantasy football managers are presented with two major problems — they must trust the boom-bust players they’ve been avoiding and lean on the big-name players who have been letting them down week after week. This isn’t a week for the faint of heart. Playoffs are right around the corner, and this week’s choices could make the difference between playoffs or the consolation bracket.

We’ll look at players from two perspectives this week — Bye Week Booms and Big Names with Big Problems.

Big Names with Big Problems

Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings

Heading into the season, I thought the Vikings would use Ty Chandler as a complementary back to ensure Jones wasn’t overused. Aside from the challenges of being a 29-year-old running back, Jones has never been a true workhorse. He’s been a back that produces as an RB1 within a committee. Instead of repeating this effective approach, the Vikings gave Jones significant volume.

Through 10 games, Jones has logged 157 rushing attempts. If he continues at this pace, he’ll exceed his previous career high of 236 carries, which was way back in 2019. Earlier in the season, when his legs were fresher, Jones was explosive, efficient and effective. Over the past four games, he has struggled significantly, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry and 9.2 fantasy points per game in half-PPR formats. This is a sharp contrast to his first 10 games, where he averaged 4.6 yards per carry and 13.5 fantasy points per game. The Vikings realized the need for another back and traded for Cam Akers, who has logged 23 carries over the past two games.

Will Jones make or break your lineup in Week 12?

Akers has been predictably inefficient, but the team continues to give him volume, likely in hopes of alleviating the strain on Jones. Despite the addition of Akers, Jones is still seeing solid volume; he’s simply no longer capitalizing on it. This week, he faces an advantageous matchup against the Chicago Bears. While the Bears’ defense has been strong overall, they are clearly weaker against the run. Statistically, Jones should get a rushing touchdown in this matchup. Despite the struggles, Jones could break through and have an RB1 week.

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Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, San Francisco 49ers

Before we dive into any numbers, let’s call a spade a spade; Deebo Samuel Sr. has flat-out looked awful.

It hasn’t been a season of perfect health for him, but that’s nothing new. Another common pattern for Samuel is his tendency to oscillate between good and bad seasons. After a terrible 2022, Samuel admitted he was out of shape and rebounded in 2023. Now, in 2024, it feels like we’re watching a repeat of 2022 — which, inevitably, means 2025 could be a bounce-back year, so make a note of that … but we can’t wait for the 2025 bounce-back. We need Samuel now.

Will Samuel make or break your lineup in Week 12?

Samuel is a special talent and there’s still time for him to turn things around this season, but it’s tough to trust him right now. He has clearly taken a backseat to George Kittle and Jauan Jennings and has just two total touchdowns on the season. This week, Samuel faces a Green Bay defense that has generally been strong against the pass. On one hand, this is a good opportunity to take advantage of his rushing upside. On the other hand, it’s difficult to believe he’ll provide strong receiving production this week. Samuel is, yet again, a risky flex play with bust potential.

Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans

If you’ve read my articles before, you’ll know I’ve been pleasantly surprised with Pollard for most of the season. Unlike Samuel and Jones, Pollard has no issues with his performance, despite being in a terrible offensive situation. Weeks 1 through 9, Pollard was a respectable RB22 in average points per game in half-PPR, averaging 13.2 points. He ranked seventh in total carries and averaged a solid 4.4 yards per carry.

However, much of his high volume earlier in the season was due to Tyjae Spears dealing with injuries. Over the past two weeks, with Spears active, there’s been a sharp decline in Pollard’s usage. Pollard has had just nine carries in each of the past two games and has failed to reach double-digit fantasy points.

Will Pollard make or break your lineup in Week 12?

The Titans have stated they want to reduce Pollard’s workload, perhaps out of concern for his long-term effectiveness. While this makes him wildly unreliable for fantasy purposes, there’s a potential silver lining. Spears is currently in concussion protocol, and if he’s unable to suit up, we could see the return of the old 20-30 touch version of Pollard. I have long-term concerns for Pollard in this offense, but if Spears is inactive, even with a less-than-ideal matchup, he offers RB1 upside.

Bye Week Booms

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Aside from his Week 1 start, Worthy is coming off his best performance of the year. He recorded four receptions on five targets for 61 yards and a touchdown. What made this even more impressive was that it came against a stout Buffalo secondary. While Worthy has had similar performances earlier this season, this was the first week where he truly felt like the Chiefs’ WR1. Worthy felt like the star — consistent and poised for more. It’s starting to feel like we could be on the verge of a rookie breakout in the second half of the season.

Fantasy managers may understandably want to dive in headfirst, especially with a matchup against a seemingly good matchup in the Panthers. However, the Panthers haven’t allowed a receiving touchdown since Week 6 (to Drake London). Volume is still possible, but the Panthers’ secondary seems to be developing and trending in a positive direction.

Will Worthy make or break your lineup in Week 12?

I’m actually a bit hesitant to lean into Worthy given the matchup. Comparatively, the Panthers have allowed the 11th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers but the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. If I’m predicting the Chiefs’ offensive approach to this matchup, pushing extremely high volume through the air doesn’t make sense. They’ll likely rely on their ground game, lean on their defense and limit Worthy’s involvement. He’ll likely see a maximum of five targets and will need a touchdown to have a productive day.

Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Bateman is having the best season of his career, already surpassing his previous highs in receiving yards and touchdowns. Unfortunately, his leap in production hasn’t come with consistency. Calling it a lack of consistency might be underselling it. He can finish as the overall WR2 one week and WR78 the next. He’s a boom-or-bust player who is heavily touchdown-dependent due to a lack of volume.

The good news is that Bateman’s boom games aren’t difficult to predict, as the Ravens’ offensive approach is fairly straightforward. Against weaker pass defenses, Baltimore tends to attack through the air and Bateman often thrives. His touchdowns this season have come against Dallas, both Cincinnati games and Tampa Bay—all defenses with clear struggles against the pass.

Will Bateman make or break your lineup in Week 12?

Bateman faces the Chargers who are very average against the pass, allowing the 16th most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Recently, they’ve been lit up by big play receivers recently and even secondary receivers like Xavier Worthy and Calvin Austin III have had success against them. This matchup profiles as a strong opportunity for Bateman to deliver another big performance. It’s risky but he’s a high-upside bye week fill-in.

Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Busted coverage or not, I’m ready to give Jim Harbaugh Coach of the Year purely for taking Quentin Johnston from arguably one of the worst receivers in the league to a shockingly usable fantasy asset. That said, it does feel a bit uncomfortable to fully lean into Johnston. A significant portion of his production has come from coverage breakdowns and it’s clear he still has some development to do.

Will Johnston make or break your lineup in Week 12?

Last week, Johnston caught two of his eight targets for 48 yards and scored a touchdown, delivering another solid fantasy outing. However, his fantasy value remains heavily reliant on touchdowns. He has three touchdowns this season and has finished inside the top 30 in those weeks. With Justin Herbert playing at an elite level, the Chargers have a beautiful matchup this week against the Baltimore Ravens — a game where Johnston could thrive. Johnston has legitimate flex value and with his boom-bust nature, could provide week-winning upside in Week 12.