Fantasy Football: Sorry, but your draft grades might be more accurate than you think

Every time you wrap up a draft with Yahoo Fantasy, a little birdy swoops into your email inboxes with a note critiquing your performance. Behold, your draft has been graded by the powers that be!

But wait — somehow, inexplicably, despite totally dominating the draft and snagging all of your favorite players, you’ve earned a disappointing grade … maybe a B. Maybe a C. Maybe even an F, if things really got wild.

Naturally, the human in us wants to shake off the totally uncalled-for evaluation. It’s a common instinct, as most of us run to social media proudly proclaiming our poor draft grade, just to enjoy the chorus of reassurance that draft grades mean nothing at all

… but what if it’s not just a goofy algorithm passing baseless judgments on your roster? What if there was actually a correlation between your draft grade and your winning percentage in the season?

As it turns out, that was exactly the case for 2023 fantasy football Public leagues on Yahoo.

Better the draft grade, better the win percentage

It’s true. Looking back at the 2023 fantasy football season, those who received higher draft grades did average a higher win percentage over the course of the season.

Those who received an “A+” grade averaged the highest win rate at 52.9%. Conversely, those who received an “F” grade had the lowest win rate at 43.2%. It’s pretty startling to see that correlation, especially with a glance at the visual:

Just in case you’re curious after seeing that beautifully perfect downward slope on the graph, here’s a full list of win percentages organized by draft grade:

• A+: 52.9%

• A: 51.9%

• A-: 51.5

• B+: 51.3%

• B: 51.0%

• B-: 50.6%

• C+: 50.3%

• C: 50.0%

• C-: 49.7%

• D+: 49.2%

• D: 48.6%

• D-: 47.5%

• F: 43.2%

Despite the correlation between draft grades and average win percentage, it’s important to note that it doesn’t imply a causal relationship between the two. Just because you received an “F” grade in your draft doesn’t mean you will lose your league, just as an “A+” draft grade doesn’t mean you’ll win it.

The ultimate decider when it comes to your team’s end-of-season record comes down to several factors — how you set your lineups, how you play the waiver wire and sometimes, just sheer dumb luck, as much as that element of the game can sting at times.

The game of fantasy can, at times, be random. Injuries happen that are beyond our control. Coaches make questionable decisions regarding the deployment of their personnel (cc: Arthur Smith — we haven’t forgotten the damage you did to our fantasy rosters in 2023). However, deploying good habits in the management of your fantasy football rosters can go a long way toward dominating your leagues, regardless of your Yahoo draft grade.

So you received a bad draft grade … what’s next?

As I said before, don’t be too spooked if you earn a less-than-desirable draft grade. What’s most important is to deploy winning habits. Some of my favorite tips:

• Follow a routine in the management of your rosters: Yahoo analyst Andy Behrens discussed the cadence of the fantasy week to help you visualize a schedule.

• Stay up-to-date on player news: Turn on your Yahoo Fantasy app notifications to get help in the form of alerts for our latest content and follow along with injury updates throughout the week.

• Play the waiver wire: Most often, you don’t win your fantasy leagues at the draft. You win them on the waiver wire. After all, 2023 league-winners Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams were waiver-wire gems. Be aggressive. Make moves. Don’t be too conservative or afraid to cut players from your roster who aren’t contributing to your season. Once waivers run each week, take a look at which players your opponents cut to make room on their rosters for new acquisitions.

• Take advantage of the tools at your disposal: Yahoo Fantasy is here to help you dominate your league with a number of resources. Listen to the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast five days a week on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, your favorite podcast app, or watch the show on YouTube. Tune into Fantasy Football Live, heading into its 19th season, for last-minute lineup advice. Consult our team’s weekly rankings. Read up on our up-to-date fantasy analysis throughout the week. Ask your start/sit questions on X (formerly Twitter) — @YahooFantasy — every Sunday morning.

Last but not least, regardless of your draft grade … just have fun. That’s the point of playing fantasy football, after all.