Fantasy Football storylines to watch in Week 4: Rachaad White has a Bucky Irving problem

Sean McVay’s reaction to the Rams’ win should apply to the rest of Week 3.

Even when we think we know what’s going to happen, the players give us something different. It’s part of why we analyze and play this game. Our data points and conclusions can be a guide. And yet, every Sunday at kickoff, there’s a new set of information. We have to take into account more context.

I’ll probably be parsing through all of the storylines from last week up until next Sunday morning. However, to help you get prepared for Week 4, let’s dig into the biggest talking points stemming from the latest round of NFL action.

New defensive coverages? No problem — get new receivers!

The shift in defensive play-calling has offenses rattled. On the unserious side of things, analysts are calling for a rule change to put the power back on offenses. Meanwhile, in reality, just one of the QBs drafted this year has thrown for more than 300 yards in a single game.

I agree there’s a talent gap, but the issue extends (way) past what coverage a defense calls. But while quarterback development (or lack thereof) has been the headline for top-12 QBs, at least one of the top-12 WRs seems to have things figured out.

Through three weeks, Malik Nabers has earned the highest target and air yard share of any rookie WR since 2000. Opportunity isn’t a problem here. But Daniel Jones throwing him the ball (at least) looks like one.

Take whatever accuracy metric you want (adjusted completion percentage, CPOE), and you’ll find Jones in the bottom half. However, for all of HC Brian Daboll’s and OC Mike Kafka’s faults, finding ways to get their first-round pick the ball isn’t one of them.

Nabers’ Week 2 route chart emphasizes part of the problem with trying to pin down his usage. He’s everywhere.

His first five routes in Week 3 included two Hitches (at five air yards), a Go (28), an Out (for a TD) and a Slant. Even better, Jones’ 68.0% catchable target rate with Nabers, per SportsInfoSolutions, is the highest among Giants’ WRs.

At this point, my only concern is if Nabers will lull the Giants front office into keeping Jones past his current contract.

Backfield bewilderment for the Bucs

Rachaad White would be an excellent used-car salesman. For instance, look at the 2023 workhorse he sold most of you this year at the cool cost of a third-round pick in drafts.

• All-Purpose Yards: 1,539 (fourth-most)

• Targets: 70 (ninth-most)

• Total TDs: 9 (T-11th-most)

Those are hard numbers to beat. After averaging 15.8 PPR PPG, I get why folks didn’t blink twice at an early round sticker price. But, anyone who took a look under the hood knew something was up.

Admittedly, these advanced stats don’t strongly correlate to fantasy production. The nerd in me hates this is true. However, having the fourth-most runs of a yard or fewer on early downs, resulting in your team having the 12th-most yards to go in obvious passing situations, doesn’t require any analysis. That’s not good! It’s probably no coincidence White had the second-most carries in the league last year and still didn’t crack 1,000 yards on the ground.

Unsurprisingly, nothing’s changed through three weeks of this season. Like Michael Bluth, I don’t know what I expected. Tampa made positive offensive line adjustments, and you’ll still find White at the backend of every rankings list.

What’s worse is he now has legitimate competition for touches.

Pick a rushing stat, and Bucky Irving grades out as the better option. At 20 lbs. lighter, the Oregon product has moved the chains at a higher rate (20.0% to 6.5% first down per rush rate) while matching White in explosive plays. Even HC Todd Bowles acknowledged the need to get Irving more reps.

But a switch or larger split for the rookie isn’t just about fantasy. Tampa hit its lowest average yards per play on early downs against Denver (4.6). Accordingly, Baker Mayfield’s success rate in obvious passing situations plummeted from 46.2% in W1 to 33.3% against the Broncos. Irving should be a top priority waiver add for Week 4, but his productivity should also raise the floor of the rest of the offense.

Keep poundin’, Andy Dalton

OK, let’s get the Andy Dalton superlatives out of the way.

• Dalton’s 0.24 EPA per play ranks first of all QB performances since Carolina drafted Bryce Young.

• Dalton tied for the most passing scores in a single game since 2020 (3).

• Carolina’s Week 3 yardage total (437) is the most since Week 16 of 2022.

Without a doubt, the Panthers switching to the Red Rifle allowed them to see HC Dave Canales’s vision for the offense. And notably, the change didn’t benefit just one skill player.

Diontae Johnson was sure to sync up with Dalton, given his route-running ability. The former Steeler had already earned 21.8% of Young’s targets. His WR1 role was unquestioned. However, with a more competent QB, Carolina’s passing game took a sizeable leap forward.

Similar to Baker Mayfield with Canales, Dalton attacked every level of the field. His 52.9% middle-of-the-field throw rate was a season-high, along with the number of attempts over 10 air yards. Both enabled Dalton to put his receivers in positions to create. Every wideout (except Adam Thielen, who exited early) averaged over six yards AFTER the catch. But it wasn’t just ball placement that kept the passing game alive.

Young crumpled under pressure. His 33.3% adjusted completion percentage when under duress ranked dead last amongst all starters. The Raiders tested the Panthers’ backup to see if he’d react similarly. Las Vegas dialed up a blitz on 56.4% of Dalton’s dropbacks. He responded by completing over 70.0% of his passes for nine first downs. So, adding Xavier Legette (who ran more routes and accumulated more air yards than Jonathan Mingo) makes sense for Week 4. But the running game also got a boost.

At 36.0 yards per drive, Carolina ran more plays in their opponent’s red zone (14) than they had in their previous two games combined. Chuba Hubbard quickly found his way into the end zone. Hubbard continues to be the play for now, but if you can stash Jonathon Brooks on your bench, he’ll hit the ground running with Dalton under center.

No Tua. No Skylar. No hope?

Unfortunately, I don’t have a “trust” stat to cite here. In either case, it’s part of what made the Dolphins’ offense hum with Tua Tagovailoa zipping the ball downfield. I realize they’re singular plays, but they highlight my points.

If you pause at six seconds, you can see Tua’s already halfway through his windup. Jaylen Waddle may have two steps on the defender. Regardless, they both know how the play will end. Waddle had his head turned around after he passed the 24-yard line. It was a wrap. Now, contrast Tua’s anticipatory style with what we saw on Sunday:

Again, both clips are just snapshots. One from last season. But they give qualitative context to an actual stat.

You could feel the lag in decision-making on Sunday. Thompson surely did. Boyle didn’t fare any better. Anyway, you can see how something so nuanced can short-circuit what should be one of the most efficient offenses in the league.

Their running game already ranks 31st in rushing EPA, as De’Von Achane sits ahead of only D’Andre Swift in rushing yards over expected. And without a robot at QB, the fragility of the roster becomes a larger discussion.

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Despite us lauding Mike McDaniel as a top-tier play-caller like his former colleagues, the Dolphins don’t have extra TEs or receivers to morph into a run-first offense like the Packers have done for Malik Willis. Nor do they have the reincarnation of Randy Moss as their WR3, like the 49ers.

Achane’s 18.3% target share (third-most among RBs) and Tyreek’s explosive talent are the only pieces worth holding onto in this offense. Until Tua comes back, see what value you can get in a trade for the rest.

Sam Darnold could be a 2024 league winner? Sure.

So, I want to be fair when it comes to evaluating this version of Sam Darnold.

Yes, from 2018 to 2020, you’d be hard-pressed to find a worse QB. Mitch Trubisky ranked higher in CPOE, EPA per play and passing success rate. And yet, Trubisky is hanging out with Buffalo, watching Josh Allen build his case for the MVP title while Darnold revives his career.

For the Darnold naysayers, I get it. We have 38 games of Darnold as the Jets starter compared to a three-game sample in 2024. Again, the nerd in me hates this is true. But look at what New York sent out with Darnold in Week 1 of his final season in New York.

• RB: Frank Gore, Le’Veon Bell

• WR: Chris Hogan, Breshad Perriman, Jamison Cowder

• TE: Chris Herndon

So, sure. Darnold isn’t a talent elevator. However, he has at least one player (for now) who is.

The explosives and highlight-reel plays from Justin Jefferson will always snatch our attention. But he’s terrorized defenses from all over the field.

Jefferson has the 10th-highest target rate from the slot, but only Chris Godwin and Rashee Rice have generated more yards from the interior. Jefferson is equally scary on the outside. He’s one of five wideouts with a YPRR over 2.5 from the perimeter (2.67). With KOC putting JJettas in motion before the snap at the eighth-highest rate and having him connect with Darnold using play action on 28.6% of his targets (fourth-highest among WR1s), there’s little defenses can do to stop Darnold.

But it’s not just Minnesota’s passing game “propping up” Darnold. Their ground attack also makes things easier.

Remember how I said the lack of efficiency from Miami’s running game will hurt their passing game without Tua? The Vikings are the opposite. When opting to run on early downs, the combined efforts of Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler have averaged 4.8 yards per play (eighth-most). In turn, Minnesota’s 45.7% third-down conversion rate ranks third-highest in the league.

Is it possible for Darnold to turn back into a pumpkin or have a bad game? Sure. Derek Carr just reminded us about using small samples. However, with this core around Darnold and help on the way, the upside case for Darnold as a league winner isn’t as hard as it sounds.