Fantasy Football Trade Desk: Should you sell Tyreek Hill?

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Trade Desk. As a former English teacher and a current sportswriter, I have no finance background whatsoever, but I do watch Industry every week on HBO Max and have talked to a few of my friends in finance so I’m now basically an expert at stock trades. If you’re on my desk each week, we’re going to have some fun and trade with the fervor of Rishi betting on the future of England’s currency (while addressing one another just a touch more civilly).

Each week in this column I’ll guide you through some of my recommendations on which players we should be looking to target in fantasy football trades, which players we should be testing the waters on, and which players we should be holding onto. We’ll try to go beyond just the box score and evaluate role, usage, and matchups in a way that can help us identify the perfect time to move on from a well-performing player or take a risk on an underperforming one.

As a quick overall citation, all of my data for routes, target share, and other advanced metrics comes from Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report over at Fantasy Life, so make sure you go check that out.

At the end of the day, we have one goal: to maximize the value of our players and get the best weekly returns on our fantasy lineup. Some of the calls may be risky. Some may be easy, but I’ll try to give you a wide range and a sense of value to help you navigate trade scenarios in your league. This leads to the final reminder that this is a trade column, so I won’t be discussing guys who are predominantly on waiver wires, but you can check out our awesome waiver wire articles for all of those potential names.

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Buy The Dip

As many of us know, “Buying the Dip” is when an investor buys an asset after its price has fallen in a way they believe to be temporary. That allows us to profit when the price rebounds, so all players listed here are players who I believe suffered a value dip in Week 1 that I feel confident will rebound in the coming weeks.

George Pickens – WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
I blurbed this game for Rotoworld this weekend, which means I watched every snap, so some of my rationale here will just be “Bro, trust me.” People who didn’t watch the game might see just two catches on four targets for Pickens for 29 yards and they’ll think “The Steelers quarterbacks suck, and so Pickens will continue to suck.” You should take advantage of that logic because Pickens’ fingerprints were all over that Week 2 win.

Every time Pickens made a big play, it seemed like a flag was thrown. He had a huge 50-yard catch called back due to a holding penalty away from the ball. He had an 11-yard touchdown catch called back due to a questionable pick call that even Gene Steratore on the broadcast said was not the correct call. Pickens also drew a pass interference penalty on a 40+-yard shot down the sideline, so his target share numbers and air yards numbers will not accurately reflect his real usage in this game. Justin Fields looked to Pickens often, and there will certainly be better days ahead if Fields remains under center, which he should.

In some Yahoo leagues, Pickens was traded straight up for Amari Cooper, Zack Moss, Michael Pittman Jr., and Terry McLaurin. I’d rather have Pickens than all of them right now.

Diontae Johnson – WR, Carolina Panthers
This one feels obvious so you might not actually have the opportunity to buy low on Johnson, but the Panthers moving from Bryce Young at quarterback to Andy Dalton is such a massive upgrade for Johnson. Young had just a 57% catchable pass rate this season and it’s not just about pressure. The Panthers have the 5th-best pass blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus this year, and Bryce Young has been brutal even when he’s not being pressured. Meanwhile, Andy Dalton has a nearly 70% catchable pass rate for his career and will make this entire offense far more reliable.

Through two games, Johnson has run a route on 80% of dropbacks, has a 23% target share, 23% targets per route run, and has 24% of the team’s air yards. All of that has led to a TOTAL of 8.3 fantasy points in a PPR format. Given his usage and the fact that he excels in the intermediate areas where Andy Dalton likes to throw the ball, I think this could be a nice marriage. Also, given that Johnson has caught passes from Young, Mason Rudolph, Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky, and a late-career Ben Roethlisberger, it’s possible Dalton is the best quarterback Johnson has ever played with. Yikes.

D’Andre Swift – RB Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears offense is a mess, and Swift has scored just 11.2 fantasy points in PPR formats through two games. He has never quite lived up to the expectations many had for him coming out of Georgia, so I can see why you’d be hesitant to add Swift to your roster, but there are two reasons I’m interested.

The first is usage. Swift has played on 67% of the snaps for the Bears this season, taking 62% of the rushes while also running a route on 59% of dropbacks. He’s playing the vast majority of the snaps in the two-minute drill and has 50% of the short down-and-distance snaps, so he’s being used in basically all situations for the Bears. We love to find running backs with that kind of usage.

The other reason I’m interested in trading for Swift is his schedule. This week, the Bears face the Colts who have allowed 474 rushing yards in two games. Yes, that’s in just two games. The Colts knew the Packers were going to run the ball a lot in Week 2 with Jordan Love out, and they still allowed 261 yards on the ground. Swift should feast in this matchup. But the schedule continues to be strong after that with the Bears facing the Rams, Panthers, Jaguars, and Commanders in the four subsequent weeks. If you trade for Swift now, you could get five weeks of strong production before thinking about unloading him to another team.

In Yahoo leagues this week, Swift has been traded straight up for Tank Dell, Jerome Ford, and a combination of Zach Charbonnet and DeAndre Hopkins to name a few scenarios. It’s worth exploring what you can give up to get Swift in your league.

Run a Process

If you’re going to Run a Process on a player, then we’re going to explore a potential sale while not being locked into selling. This is essentially for players who we think will still perform at a solid clip this season but not at the rate that they currently are or not at the same rate that their current value suggests they will.

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle – WR, Miami Dolphins

It’s not a surprise why you see these two Dolphins receivers on here. With Skylar Thompson taking over for Tua Tagovailoa for the foreseeable future, and perhaps even the remainder of the season, this Miami offense is going to be much less dynamic. In eight games with Thompson at quarterback, Hill averages 8.6 targets for 75.1 yards per game and two total touchdowns. Those aren’t awful numbers, but they’re not the numbers you drafted Hill for.

It’s been worse for Waddle, who averages six targets for 56 receiving yards per game and no touchdowns in eight games with Thompson. Hill is going to be more effective on passes close to the line of scrimmage where he can make people miss in space, so he has the ability to hit a home run on every play, and we can’t say that about Waddle. Still, both of these guys are talented receivers, so you don’t want to force a trade. There’s also the optimistic take that Tyler Huntley might be better for their value, or Tua might come back this year, but if somebody in your league has that optimism and wants to take either of these receivers off of your hands for a fair price, it might not be a bad idea.

For example, in Yahoo leagues, Tyreek has been traded for a package of Mike Evans and Puka Nacua, which I would probably do, and has also been traded with Alexander Mattison for a package of Ja’Marr Chase and George Pickens, which I would definitely do. In another league, Tyreek was traded for a combo of Chase and Jameson Williams, which I would do in a heartbeat, and somebody was able to trade Tyreek straight up for Justin Jefferson. My point here simply is that there are leagues out there where people are willing to give up plenty of talent to acquire Tyreek Hill, and maybe your league is one of those.

Michael Pittman Jr. – WR, Indianapolis Colts
Unlike the situation above, I’m far more likely to just move on from Michael Pittman Jr. The receiver was one of my picks on our staff Shy Away list heading into the season, and in that article, I said: “In the four games Richardson played last year, Pittman averaged 7.5 PPR points per game, which was good for WR38. That’s a small sample size, but it’s the one we have to work with. Overall, Pittman had a solid 72.4% catchable pass rate last year with Gardner Minshew under center, so I just don’t buy the narrative that he finds himself in a much better situation as a pass-catcher in 2024.”

Through two games, Pittman has a 64% catchable target rate and has an aDOT of 10.9 which is worse than Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell. Given that Pittman isn’t the deep target, he’s being used in the intermediate area of the field with a quarterback who doesn’t like to throw there and isn’t as accurate when doing so. All of this is without Josh Downs on the field as he works his work back from a high ankle sprain. Downs was apparently the star of the offseason camps, so his return will muddy this receiver situation even more.

Pittman has upside because Anthony Richardson can hit on some big throws, but he is going to be inconsistent week over week, and I’m not sure his 12.2 total fantasy points through two games is all that misleading for his value. In some leagues, Pittman has been traded straight up for Stefon Diggs and Aaron Jones and has been packaged with Chuba Hubbard for Marvin Harrison Jr. or packaged with Aaron Jones for Amon-Ra St. Brown. I would jump at any of those, so it might be worth seeing what somebody in your league will give you for Pittman.

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Hold

This one is self-explanatory. Sometimes you see a player getting recommended in lots of trade articles, but you can actually get consistent value out of that player for the rest of the season and you should just hold them.

Rhamondre Stevenson – RB, New England Patriots

It seems like everybody wants to trade Rhamondre Stevenson because he’s averaging 19.3 points per game in PPR formats and nobody thinks the Patriots are really any good. Neither do I, but I’m content to hold on to Stevenson in leagues where I have him. I doubted this Patriots offense coming into the season and while I still don’t think it’s great, I have some faith in Jacoby Brissett as a solid NFL quarterback. He’s going to keep the offense from turning the ball over, and he gives them just enough of a threat as a passer to prevent defenses from simply loading the box against Stevenson.

Yet, Brissett is not good enough to take work away from Stevenson. Rhamondre has been on the field for 75% of snaps through two games, taking 67% of the rushes and running routes on 67% of dropbacks. That last part is CRUCIAL to his fantasy value because, even if you think the Patriots will be playing from behind, he’s going to remain on the field. He’s seen a target on 16% of his routes and also has the red zone role with all of the carries inside the five-yard line. Oh, and he’s also not yet ceding passing down work to Antonio Gibson. Stevenson played 100% of the two-minute drill snaps in Week 2 and has played on 72% of the long down-and-distance snaps this season. So he’s dominating the rushes, running routes on plenty of dropbacks, working as the sole red zone threat, and also staying on the field in passing downs? We love ALL of that.

Now, Stevenson was also traded straight up for Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Amari Cooper this week. He was also traded with Jonathan Brooks for Jahmyr Gibbs and with Xavier Worthy for Travis Etienne, so if you can get value that good, it’s worth making a move, but I’m not looking to do it.

Buy a Call

When we buy a call on somebody, we are essentially buying the option on a player we think might hit big in the future. In finance (as I’ve learned from research) this means the buyer isn’t locked into purchasing the stock but has the option to do so at a lower price – a strike price – if they choose to do so in the future. For us, this means players who we want to add to our roster now in a small trade because we believe there’s a chance they are going to hit big for us later. We don’t want to pay a lot, but we want them around for the option to use them if it all breaks right.

Bucky Irving – RB, Tampa Bay Bucs
I’m going to keep Bucky Irving on here because I think there is still a chance to get him on your team before his value takes off. Rachaad White was banged up a little bit in Week 2, but he continues to look ineffective as a runner. He will always remain in the offense as a receiving weapon, but Irving has seen 35% of the carries and 34% of the total snaps already, and I think this will continue to inch more toward a 50/50 split and then into Irving as the main runner with White as the primary receiver out of the backfield. Considering that the Bucs offense looks solid again, I like taking flyers on Irving right now.

Quentin Johnston – WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Like many people, I was intrigued by Quentin Johnston when he was coming out of TCU and then fully out on him after he looked lost in his rookie season. He was unable to get separation, and he couldn’t seem to haul in catches against professional-level corners. The Chargers offense seemed destined for a step back this year, but the removal of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams from the equation has led to target shares of 21% and 32% for Johnston over the first two weeks of the season. He didn’t do that in any game last year. He’s on the field often and running routes on 84% of dropbacks while catching passes from Justin Herbert so that gives him clear value. This offense won’t throw a lot, but at some point, they are going to be trailing in games and that will mean a heavy dose of Johnston.

Straight Sell

Another self-explanatory one, but these are players we just want to get off our team. We’re not yet at the point where we’re cutting them, but if we can get anything of value in a trade, we want to move off of these players because we don’t believe in the long-term value at all.

Courtland Sutton – WR, Denver Broncos
Bo Nix just doesn’t do it for me. He’s seemingly not willing to push the ball down the field and is not accurate when he does. I know Sutton saw 12 targets in Week 1, and he’s a talented receiver, so you may not want to move on, but in shallower formats, I’d take whatever you can get. In one league, he was paired with Zach Charbonnet to get Brandon Aiyuk. In another league, Sutton was traded with Tee Higgins for DK Metcalf and Rhamondre Stevenson. Give me both of those in a heartbeat. I just don’t like trusting wide receivers in a bad offense with a bad quarterback.

Zach Charbonnet – RB, Seattle Seahawks
Charbonnet could start again this week with Kenneth Walker still battling an injury. Last week, Charbonnet played 95% of the snaps, took 78% of the rushing attempts, and ran a route on 77% of the team’s dropbacks. That’s RB1 usage; however, Charbonnet didn’t look dynamic in that usage. We know that his role as the lead back will come to an end soon, so you’re not likely to get much for him, especially if you wait longer before you deal him. However, if you offer him now to a running back-needy team, you could get a decent return.

On Tuesday, in two Yahoo leagues, he was traded straight up for A.J. Brown and Drake London. I’m not kidding. You’re going to want to offer up Charbonnet now if you might be able to get something remotely close to that.