Fantasy Football Waiver Wire, Week 3: Isiah Pacheco fallout

Quarterback

Derek Carr, Saints (19%)

As I said last week, this new version of the Saints’ offense is built to score fantasy points.

The Saints have also used play-action on over half of their pass attempts. The increase in play-fakes has opened up more deep shots for Carr, who has the sixth-highest aDOT plus three completions over 50 yards. The Saints have scored 91 points through two games. That’s the fourth-most in NFL history. Carr gets a potentially high-scoring date with Philly in Week 3 and is the top add at the QB position.

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Geno Smith, Seahawks (34%)

We got the Seahawks we paid for in Week 2. Seattle was in 11-personnel on 87 percent of their pass plays. They went from a neutral pass rate over expected in Week 1 to a +12 percent versus the Patriots.

Geno threw for 327 yards and a touchdown while peppering DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba with targets. With OC Ryan Grubb officially “cooking,” Smith is an appealing QB2 streamer.

Sam Darnold, Vikings (13%)

Darnold hasn’t had a breakout fantasy performance yet, but the underlying metrics say he has arrived. He ranks sixth in the NFL in EPA per play, third in CPOE, and third in PFF passing grade. The Vikings have only given up 23 points in two games, so Darnold hasn’t been asked to do much so far. He gets a date at home versus C.J. Stroud and the Texans in Week 3.

Others receiving votes: Daniel Jones, Justin Fields

Running Back

Carson Steele, Chiefs (4%)

Isiah Pacheco suffered a fractured fibula in Week 2 and will be placed on injured reserve, sidelining him for at least four weeks and possibly much longer. That leaves the Chiefs with just Carson Steele and Samaje Perine on the roster. Keontay Ingram is a good bet to be called up from the practice squad and the Chiefs could also add an outside name to the mix. With those caveats out of the way, Steele’s performance was strong in Week 2. He out-snapped Samaje Perine 14-9 and out-carried him 7-0. Steele even took the team’s final carries despite coughing up a fumble earlier in the game.

With the news that Kareem Hunt is visiting the Chiefs, fantasy managers should be particularly cautious when bidding on Steele. The training camp star is a fullback/halfback hybrid who went undrafted. Hunt knows the system and is a more traditional running back. I’ve downgraded him to a 10 percent FAAB bid. Perine’s role will also improve sans Pacheco, but it doesn’t look like the Chiefs see him as a primary option between the tackles.

Braelon Allen, Jets (10%)

Braelon Allen only logged two touches in his Week 1 debut. He upped that number to nine in Week 2, going for 56 yards with a receiving and a rushing touchdown. Allen nearly doubled his snap share from 18 percent versus the 49ers to 35 percent versus the Titans. He could continue to be involved more often in an effort to ease Breece Hall’s workload. That would only get him to the RB4 ranks, but a mix of low-end standalone value and elite contingency upside makes him one of the best adds for a quiet week of waivers.

Ty Chandler, Vikings (29%)
The Vikings operated a backfield-by-committee in Week 2, giving Chandler 10 carries to Aaron Jones’s nine. Chandler made the case to see more work going forward with 82 rushing yards on his limited workload. Chandler isn’t the most exciting pickup of the week, but he does appear to be a good bet for a handful of touches, putting him on the RB3 radar.

Bucky Irving, Bucs (34%)

Tampa Bay’s fifth-round rookie Bucky Irving led the backfield in rushing yards for the second straight week. He only ran for 22 yards on seven carries, but that was enough to out-produce Rachaad White, who totaled a dismal 18 yards on 10 attempts. Irving isn’t setting the world on fire, but White looks like one of the league’s least efficient backs once again. Irving is making the case for a larger share of the carries every week.

Others receiving votes: Alexander Mattison, Justice Hill, Jeff Wilson

Wide Receiver

Demarcus Robinson, Rams (42%)

Things went from bad to worse for the Rams in Week 2. After losing Puka Nacua to a knee injury in their opener, LA saw Cooper Kupp go down to an ankle injury last week. He did not return after receiving a “doubtful” designation. Kupp was spotted in a walking boot after the game. With Nacua on IR and Kupp’s stats for Week 3 up in the air. Demarcus Robinson may be Matthew Stafford’s No. 1 receiver for at least a week. Robinson began the year as the team’s WR3 and has run a route on 91 percent of the team’s dropbacks through two games. He is second on the team in targets (11) and has a 15.3 aDOT.

Tyler Johnson has gotten some run because of the injuries and is now in line for the No. 2 role. He is a deep-cut FLEX option for rosters bit by the injury bug. Jordan Whittington received plenty of hype during camp but hasn’t found a clear role in the LA offense yet. He split reps with Tutu Atwell after Kupp went down, making both deep league stashes at best.

Quentin Johnston, Chargers (7%)

So…Quentin Johnston might be good.

In his rookie season, QJ averaged .9 yards per route run and 6.4 yards per target. He posted 25.4 yards per game. Those numbers are up to 2.1 YPPR, 8.1 YPT, and 44.5 yards per game. Over a third of his targets were contested as a rookie and he came down with just 7-of-22 contested looks. He has cut his contested rate to 18 percent and has reeled in 1-of-2 contested targets. The Chargers are also treating him as their WR1 with a heavy dose of first-read targets.

LA’s absurdly run-heavy approach has dampened the receiving output of everyone involved, but Johnston deserves loads of credit for turning things around.

Jalen Nailor, Vikings (1%)

Jordan Addison is likely at least one more week away from returning. He suffered an ankle injury in Week 1 and didn’t practice at all before being ruled out for Week 2. Jalen Nailor has run a route on 76 percent of Sam Darnold’s dropbacks this year and has a touchdown in both games. His role as a deep ball specialist lends itself to long touchdowns but will also leave fantasy managers holding the bag when he doesn’t hit on the big play. Nailor is a no-floor WR5.

Jauan Jennings, 49ers (2%)

The 49ers, who are built on having an elite skill position group, are now shockingly thin on play-makers with Christian McCaffrey on injured reserve and Deebo Samuel set to miss a few weeks because of a calf injury. First-round rookie Ricky Pearsall is also on the NFI list and isn’t eligible to return until Week 5. Jennings is going to step into a starting role and stay on the field in two-receiver sets until Samuel or Pearsall return. He had played on at least 60 percent of his team’s snaps in nine career games. Jennings averaged 43 yards in those contests and topped 40 yards six times.

Alec Pierce, Colts (28%)

Heading into MNF, Pierce is sixth in the NFL in total air yards. He has a respectable 20 percent target share and has seen just over a third of Anthony Richardson’s air yards. He has over 50 yards and a touchdown in both games this year. The downside for Pierce is Josh Downs‘ impending return. Downs appeared to be close to playing in Week 2 but was held out presumably for a final week. He will earn more targets than Adonai Mitchell and could take Pierce off the field at times, complicating an otherwise fun but on a few weekly deep shots from Richardson.

Others receiving votes: Wan’Dale Robinson, Josh Reynolds, Jalen Tolbert

Tight End

Hunter Henry, Patriots (24%)

Hunter Henry’s 15 targets rank second among all tight ends, second only to rising star Brock Bowers. He went for 109 yards in Week 2, giving him one of just 18 100-yard performances over the past season and two weeks. His 30 percent target share and 31 percent air yards share both lead the position. You may not like it, but this is what peak tight end production looks like.

Colby Parkinson, Rams (49%)

Colby Parkinson ranks second among tight ends in routes (67) and eighth in route rate (80 percent). Sans Nacua and Kupp, someone has to see targets. He isn’t much more than a PPR scam TE2, but the waiver wire is thin for viable fantasy tight ends.

Mike Gesicki, Bengals (5%)

The Bengals’ role for Mike Gesicki is an odd one. He ran a route on less than half of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks in Week 1 and that number barely crested 50 percent in Week 2. He still hasn’t topped a 50 percent snap share in a game. Despite that, when Gesicki is on the field, they throw him the football. He leads all tight end (min. 30 routes) in targets per route run at .35 and saw nine targets in Week 2. PFF credited him with an additional target and counted nine of his looks as first-read targets. That easily led the Bengals. Gesicki went for 91 yards on seven grabs in a close loss to the Chiefs. He could operate as the team’s de facto WR2 until Tee Higgins returns.

Others receiving votes: Foster Moreau, Zach Ertz