Fantasy Football Week 13 Start Sit Decisions: Baker is cooking

Quarterback

Start: Baker Mayfield, Bucs

Mayfield is quietly the QB4 in points per game on the back of six 20-point outings, a number that trails only Lamar Jackson. The Bucs get a date with a Carolina secondary that has allowed the second-highest EPA per dropback and the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Vegas is buying the Bucs’ offense as well with a 26.25 team total that trails only the Ravens.

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Sit: Kyler Murray, Cardinals 

The Vikings are a below-average opponent for the fantasy production of opposing quarterbacks in general and match up particularly well against Murray and the Cardinals. They have allowed the fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks this year and have only given up one rushing touchdown. Minnesota’s biggest weakness on defense is an inability to contain deep shots, but the Cardinals aren’t big on attempting those throws. Murray ranks 24th in deep throw rate this year. Murray is stuck on the QB1/2 border this week.

Running Back

Start: Bucky Irving, Bucs

Irving has been one of the league’s most efficient backs this year, ranking second in yards after contact per carry and seventh in Next Gen’s rush yards over expected per attempt.

He is now marrying those fancy numbers with an increase in touches. Irving earned a season-high 18 touches in Week 12. His 55 percent snap share and 59 percent route rate were both high-water marks in games with Rachaad White active. Now he gets a Panthers defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to running backs.

Sit: Nick Chubb, Browns

The Browns have the lowest implied team total of any team playing on Sunday at 18 points. They are 5.5-point underdogs on the road versus a Denver defense that ranks seventh in rush EPA per attempt allowed. Chubb isn’t involved as a receiver out of the backfield and is generating no explosive plays. He has one gain of 15 or more yards and is last in the NFL in yards per carry (min. 70 attempts).

Wide Receiver

Start: Courtland Sutton, Broncos

Sutton was held without a target in Week 7. Since then, he’s seen more targets than all but seven wide receivers. He has a 29 percent target share and a 45 percent air yards share since the doughnut game. Sutton gets a Cleveland defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts.

Sit: Marquez Valdes-Scantling

This feels like low-hanging fruit, but MVS is the player I’ve been asked about the most this week. With playoff berths on the line, the risk isn’t worth the reward. Despite scoring three times in his past two appearances, he has just seven targets and a 15 percent target share in those games. MVS was the WR56 in expected points in Weeks 10 and 11. He finished as the WR3 overall. Given his modest role, I don’t buy that he can sustain anything close to this level of efficiency going forward.

Tight End

Start: Evan Engram, Jaguars

Engram has appeared in nine games with Christian Kirk inactive over the past two seasons. He has averaged 15.5 fantasy points on the back of 9.6 targets per game in those contests.

His target share is up to an absurd 32 percent in three games without Kirk this year. With Trevor Lawrence expected to return on Sunday, Engram is pushing for a top-five ranking at tight end.

Sit: Kyle Pitts, Falcons

Pitts is a volatile player and cold streaks are to be expected, but his latest downswing has been accompanied by a noticeable hit to his role. Pitts has scored 13.5 fantasy points over his past three games combined. During that stretch, he has a disastrous 11 percent target share while running 74 percent of the routes. The Chargers defense is sixth in EPA per dropback allowed and has faced a -3% pass rate over expected. Pitts should get back on the board with a big game at some point, but Week 13 isn’t the time to make that bet.