Fantasy University: Course 402 — How to factor in rankings into your draft and lineup decisions

Preface from Andy Behrens — The first thing you need to know about player rankings for fantasy football is that people love them — deeply, feverishly and with their whole hearts.

Fantasy rankings are among the most-clicked pieces of sports content on the internet. A truly shocking number of people are willing to spend a truly shocking percentage of their time viewing numbered lists of tight ends, defenses and kickers. It’s a strange phenomenon for which we are sincerely grateful.

The second thing you need to know about player rankings is that they are blunt instruments, not applicable to all roster predicaments. They certainly do not tell a full story. Rankings offer no subtlety and zero context. If rankings alone were the only tool required to win your matchups, then we’d have a pretty boring game on our hands.

Every analyst takes a slightly different approach to position ranks, which must really annoy readers who are looking for uniformity and concurrence. But ranks are a pretty lousy way to capture a player’s full range of potential outcomes, and they don’t necessarily allow for clear expressions of relative confidence. For some of us, the ranking process is hard science. For others, it’s whimsical art.

If you really want to understand the meaning and methodology behind player ranks, you probably need to hear from a collection of professional rankers.

[2024 Fantasy Draft Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers]

What do rankings truly reflect?

Dalton Del Don: My rankings generally reflect where I would draft players if average draft position (ADP) data didn’t exist. Of course, that information is abundantly available, so it’s best to take both rankings and ADP into account when drafting. I’m aware of the overall market, but my ranks are independent and can vary greatly from consensus — often leading to strong stances, even if unintentional.

Scott Pianowski: Aggregate rankings can be a powerful tool to consider as we evaluate the market; generally the wisdom of the crowd grades stronger than any individual ranker. The contrast to this is that fantasy leagues are often swayed by outlier performances, and those rare outliers are more likely to be uncovered by lone-wolf rankings than they are through aggregation.

Matt Harmon: Rankings are an incomplete approximation of player preference on a yearly or weekly basis. They should be guided by the ranker’s view of each player’s range of outcomes. That is an incredibly difficult, if not impossible, bit of substance to convey in a simple numerical list, which is why they’re not a complete picture.

Rankings are a good quality appetizer. If you’re not ordering more courses of content to consume, you’re not getting the best possible experience.

Andy Behrens: For most of us, rankings reflect something close to our estimate of the 50th-percentile outcome for a player. And hey, if you want to argue that making decisions based on 50th-percentile outcomes is no way to go through life or manage your fantasy rosters, I’m with you. Ideally, I’d like to start a player or two each week who might be somewhat volatile, but who also possesses supernova potential. Sometimes our focus should be on the 90th percentile — not the 50th. It’s not easy to flag such players in preseason or weekly ranks (which of course is why we produce nuanced content, too).

How should you use rankings when drafting or making lineup decisions?

Matt: Draft and in-season rankings can help you get in the right neighborhood of a draft pick or lineup answer, but they aren’t giving you an exact address. If you’re debating between two players and one is ranked RB10 vs. RB25, that probably tells you something. However, if your two players are within a handful of spots of each other, don’t let that one numerical assignment be what makes the call.

Andy: I have an ostensibly snarky answer which also happens to be a sincere answer: the real purpose of the ranks is to give you someone to blame when things go sideways for your team. Place the blame on me, folks. I can take it. Rankings are a mostly accurate reflection of how we’d set our lineups and draft our teams, but, again, they do not fully reflect our opinions on a player’s absolute ceiling. Think of them more as a paperback travel guide than GPS navigation.

Dalton: Since leagues can differ in formats, it’s typically better to use positional ranks instead of an overall cheat sheet, preferably with tiers. But beware — groupthink frequently comes into play with community rankings.

[Scott Pianowski’s 2024 Tiered Fantasy Draft Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs ]

How do rankings help you determine a player’s floor vs. ceiling?

Matt: Traditional rankings are not going to provide you with that, which is a part of the reason I’m such a big advocate for tiered rankings. This helps you see where certain players are bucketed who have similar floor and ceiling combinations. Even though it is an imperfect demonstration, it helps show this concept. A player within a tier of WR15 to WR24 can realistically fall anywhere within that grouping and the ranker is telling you neither would be a big shock.

Andy: Generally speaking, they do not. Occasionally, I will go all-in on a Gabe Davis-type player if the matchup is exceedingly friendly, but there’s no perfect way to express that man’s potential to go either 2-24-0 or 6-255-3 in any given week. If you believe your team to be an underdog in a particular matchup, sometimes you need to scrap ranks altogether and simply chase upside.

Scott: Although every individual ranker has to consider ceiling and floor as they compose their ranks, it’s borderline impossible to suss out those levels as you consider a number on a page. Your own personal views on ceiling and floor need to be seasoned to your own personal roster build and style as a fantasy manager.

Dalton: Players with a wide range of outcomes are tougher to rank, and predicting injuries is just guesswork. If there’s a player with a high risk/reward, I’ll usually take a strong stance with my ranking, one way or the other.

Final rankings thoughts

Scott: Your level of experience and confidence will probably have a major say in how much you consider rankings for your major decisions. Rankings should be seen as a consigliere, a cross-check, another voice of reason as you look to make your best decisions. But never forget, it’s your team. Consider every reasonable and respectable opinion you come across, but lean into your own final decisions.

Dalton: Overall season stats can be misleading, as accumulators can often finish much higher in the rankings relative to how much they actually helped your fantasy team. Rankings should be forward-looking and used purely as a guide.

Matt: I’d argue that once you get into the late rounds, you should just toss out your rankings entirely. You should accept that most of those late-round picks will not be on your team for the vast majority of your season — if they even make it out of the first few weeks of the waiver-wire rush. So don’t be afraid to put aside rankings or wisdom of the group and just target the high-upside fliers you have conviction on. The worst thing that will happen is that you cut them in the first few weeks of the season. Odds are, that’s going to happen anyway.

Now that you know rankings are just one part of your overall decision-making process, let’s examine what else you should keep in mind during the fantasy season.