Football 301 Playbook: A look at what will define Vikings-Lions clash and my prediction for this huge game

It’s a battle for the No. 1 seed in the NFC! While the rest of the Week 18 NFL schedule leaves much to be desired, Vikings-Lions is as juicy as they come.

Two Coach of the Year candidates. Two dangerous offenses with supreme play-callers. Two aggressive defenses that have battled injuries of varying degrees lately. Stars, reclamation projects and hipster role players are on every side. The Lions even feature one of the best special teams in the NFL.

For Week 18’s playbook, I am going to look at when both the Vikings and Lions have the ball and what will be the key components to each matchup.

It’s a Black and Blue division brouhaha. Let’s get into it.

When the Vikings have the ball

Both units have new faces sprinkled throughout compared to their first go-around this season. For the Vikings, it’s been a mix of positive additions (T.J. Hockenson returning from injury, Dalton Risner replacing the woeful Ed Ingram at right guard) and subtractions to mitigate, like losing Christian Darrisaw at left tackle to season-ending injury and replacing him with Cam Robinson who was acquired before the trade deadline. On Detroit’s side, the Lions’ defense seems like it has mostly ended up on the athletic trainer’s table. Injuries have hit every position room for this group, but a recent return has shifted the Lions’ structure and another potential return could help steady a different patched-together portion of this unit.

Detroit’s defense had a quirk this season: the Lions would trot out their “base” personnel (four linemen, three linebackers, four defensive backs) at a higher rate than any other team this season. In a league that has been getting smaller on the defensive side, the Lions went big and stayed big whenever they could. Linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez was injured in Week 10 and went to IR soon afterward. Alex Anzalone was also on injured reserve, but has been designated to return and practiced Thursday. The loss of those two has been felt for the Lions (the absence of Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill hasn’t been fun, either) when teams like to put bigger bodies on the field and throw the ball. It’s an issue for this defense, one that has reared its ugly head even as Detroit keeps collecting wins. The Lions are still quite good in defending the run, stacking up as one of the league’s most stout units even with injuries accumulating left and right. DJ Reader is still DJ Reader. Jack Cambell has definitely improved to tolerable against the pass but he is firmly good against the run.

After the Lions suffered those linebacker injuries and lost McNeill’s early down pressure, opponents have found ways to get chunks of yardage through the air when they put bigger bodies on the field and throw the ball. Play-action concepts, especially bootlegs that move the quarterback out of the pocket, have given the Lions issues as of late. It’s a weakness that got poked at more recently by offenses as they look to affect the Lions’ off-ball defenders with fakes and misdirection.

Since Week 15, the Lions have allowed the most passing yards (373) and yards per attempt (12.4) in the NFL to play-action concepts. And this isn’t just a few chunk plays. QBs have a dropback success rate of 67.7% against the Lions on play-action concepts. Caleb Williams, Josh Allen and Brock Purdy had consistent success on a variety of different actions. That’s an easy thread to pull at for Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell. While Sam Darnold has been plenty effective on straight dropbacks, play-action concepts are still a healthy part of O’Connell’s well-balanced, and Shanahan/McVay-influenced, play menu.

Darnold is top-five in just about any number you want to look at on play-action concepts. From simple box score statistics like yards per attempt (10.6, second), passer rating (135.1, second) and even touchdowns (16, first) to advanced metrics like dropback success rate (55.2%, fifth). The Vikings are a throw-first team, but they still use that threat of the run to provide eye candy and the heavier protection that play-action provides to chuck the ball downfield. With Darnold loving to oblige that downfield philosophy.

With the return of Hockenson, the Vikings also have even more paths to get after the Lions. The Vikings play with two or fewer WRs on the field (personnel groupings that typically force defenses to match with their own base defenses) at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL on early downs. Minnesota uses 21 personnel (two running backs including fullback C.J. Ham, a TE and two WRs) and 12 personnel (one RB, two TEs, two WRs) at equal rates. These tools for O’Connell get more useful with the threat of Hockenson as a pass catcher.

What can the Lions throw at the Vikings? Well, they’re still good against the run and they’re potentially getting Anzalone back. And even with the injury that knocked out cornerback Carlton Davis, the Lions don’t shy away from their preference for man coverage. Ifeatu Melifonwu’s return at safety has also created a defensive shift back to something we’ve seen Detroit more familiar using in the past. Brian Branch has moved back to the slot when the Lions are in nickel personnel (five DBs). Branch is a dynamo from the slot, especially as a blitzer. This might push the Lions into playing more nickel with the return of Anzalone allowing them to get their best 11 defenders on the field, keeping the Lions out of bad matchups in zone coverage. Especially on early downs.

On late downs, the Lions still run man coverage at a high rate. How Branch holds up as a slot defender in man coverage is huge for the Lions in this game and the playoffs.

It might not matter who is in the slot for the Lions, though. In their first matchup, Darnold went 12-for-13 for 190 yards and a TD on targets to the slot; 48% of his pass attempts went there, double his season rate at that target. The Lions have allowed the most yards and second most pass attempts to slot targets in the NFL this season. Justin Jefferson is fantastic everywhere, including the slot (12th in yards per route run and 13th in explosive receptions per route run from the slot this season). See where I’m going with this?

The Lions are still going to be tough to run against. But they have to make passing plays a gash-or-be-gashed world to complement their explosive offense. The Lions blitzed Darnold often in their first game, with Darnold going 12-of-15 for 143 yards, one TD and one INT, and he took four sacks. Holding up against Jefferson, Hockenson and Jordan Addison in straight defensive looks wouldn’t be my favorite plan of attack, especially with a starting cornerback and several All-Pro-caliber defensive linemen out. Pressing Darnold, understanding that explosive plays will happen but hopefully you create just a few more, seems like the path of attack for coordinator Aaron Glenn and his Lions defense.

There are avenues to pry open for Detroit as Darnold has been better at avoiding sacks as of late but will still take a few, and Robinson has allowed the highest one-on-one pressure rate among any offensive lineman with 200 or more pass blocking snaps since he’s joined the Vikings, per NextGenStats. The Lions have to withstand the ground game (which I think they can) and the headshots O’Connell and Darnold are going to go for, and deliver just enough counterpunches to help their offense go on a run.

This side of the ball is going to turn into fireworks. Expect plenty of aggressive defensive plays from the Lions with their man coverage and blitzing, with a couple of sacks and possibly a turnover. And plenty of downfield excursions from Darnold to one of his talented pass catchers.

Buckle up.

When the Lions have the ball

Let’s get the easy stuff out of the way: the Lions *gestures over to Michigan* even without David Montgomery, are really good on offense. The Vikings *waves over to the Twin Cities* have a good and funky defense.

OK. Out of the way. Let’s get into the specifics.

Football, especially in the NFL, is situational. Offenses and defenses will take on completely different identities in different personnel groupings or on different down-and-distances. First-and-10 is wildly different than third-and-5. First-and-10 at midfield is different than it is inside the 15-yard line. Which is different than it is at a team’s own 5-yard line.

The difference between early downs (first and second downs) and late downs (third and fourth) can be stark based on the teams involved and gameplans. This matchup is no different. In the first clash between these two sides this season in Week 7, the Vikings, staying in character under coordinator Brian Flores, blitzed frequently. Jared Goff shredded the Vikings’ blitzes that day, finishing 14-for-15 for 159 yards and 10 first downs, and taking only one sack. Flores blitzing like he has a quota to fill is nothing notable. What is notable about those 16 blitzes in Week 7 was on the downs that they happened.

Fifteen of those 16 blitzes happened on first or second down with the lone late-down blitz coming on third-and-2 (often labeled as short yardage, i.e. a run down, as well). That 15-to-1 early down-late-down split is tied for the seventh-most lopsided in a single game since 2016, per NextGenStats.

Goff torched those blitzes, but it is interesting that Flores didn’t blitz Goff at all on a true late passing down, the most common situation for teams to throw pressure at signal-callers.

The Vikings thought they had an angle here, possibly attributed to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers having some success with early down funk in their Week 2 victory in Detroit. But Goff was excellent against the blitz that day vs. Minnesota and this entire season, currently ranking second in dropback success rate and EPA per dropback among qualifying QBs. This is a testament to not only Goff’s efficient pocket movement and ability to find clean answers, but also the Lions’ excellent coaching and game-planning from offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and offensive line coach Hank Fraley (does Johnson get to bring Fraley with him at his next stop?).

I think Flores will tweak that formula on early downs. Perhaps he’ll spread the pressure looks to all downs. Or he’ll use a change-up that he loves, which is dropping eight into coverage (something the Vikings didn’t do a single time on early downs in their first game vs. the Lions).

The run game is an obvious strength of this Lions team, and they currently rank third in early down rushing success rate, with Jahmyr Gibbs a threat to take any touch to the house on top of the Lions’ deadly efficient and varied run attack. The Vikings, despite not having true needle movers in their interior defensive line, were strong against the run most of this season, but have fallen off in recent weeks with their own linebacker injuries.

Since Week 12, when linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. injured his hamstring five snaps into the game and then missed the following four weeks on injured reserve (he returned in Week 17), the Vikings rank 30th in early down rushing success rate allowed. Over the first 11 weeks, the Vikings were first in the same category. They are last in stuff rate (a run that gains 0 or negative yards) since Week 12.

Offenses have gone from averaging 8.63 yards to go on third down over the first 11 weeks (longest in the NFL) to 6.9 yards over the past six weeks (19th). Pace has returned, and teams might still find it tough to get explosives running the ball against the Vikings but they are finding more success in recent weeks when they pound away on the ground.

Another linebacker difference in this game is Blake Cashman, who will also be available for the Vikings. Cashman was out during the Week 7 game (and two others) with turf toe. His presence will surely help on Sunday night for the Vikings.

The distance to go on third down is also paramount for a Vikings defense that loves to play games of chicken with the opposition in obvious passing situations (although not in this first matchup). Moving off of early downs and onto third down, Flores has leaned into a different change-up, especially as of late. And he’ll keep throwing it this weekend at Goff.

That change-up is the coverage labeled as “2 Man.” The scheme will put five defenders in man coverage (with inside leverage) against the opponent’s five eligible receivers and with two safeties playing in deep halves over the top. This narrows the routes available to the offense, with the heavy inside leverage from the defenders making outbreakers or bending routes the “best” (relatively) answers. This coverage forces the QB into making “hero throws” like seams and deep outbreakers like Geno Smith did here against the Vikings a few weeks ago:

Another good answer against 2 Man is to run the ball, including the QB as a scrambler. The Lions are more than willing to run the ball. But anyone that has watched Goff knows he’s not really looking to do damage with his legs.

This isn’t just a slight uptick in 2 Man for the Vikings in passing situations, by the way. They aren’t currently using it at the highest rate by any NFL defense since 2018 on third-and-3+, which is as far back as NextGenStats coverage database goes. They have gone from using it 2.4% in 2023 on those situations to 14.8% in 2024, and that rate has crept to over 20% since Week 10.

Goff hasn’t faced much 2 Man this season, but he ranks 30th in dropback success rate among qualifying QBs since 2022 against the coverage. The Lions are willing to run the ball in these situations (trailing only the Eagles in designed run rate on third-and-3+ over the past two seasons). But the lack of threat of Goff as a scrambler (overall and against 2 Man, with only one scramble for 5 yards), makes me think that Flores will continue to throw this prominent off-speed pitch even more in a huge battle.

Look for the Lions to have their way on the ground. But how Flores evolves his gameplan after the Lions and Goff found answers the first time around will be key. Every blitz and passing down could wildly swing this game.

Final prediction: Vikings 34, Lions 31