Futures: ‘Historical’ Tesla Event Due

Dow Jones futures were little changed overnight, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The CPI inflation report and Delta earnings are due before the open, with the “game changing” Tesla robotaxi event looming Thursday night.

The stock market rally rose solidly again Wednesday, with the S&P 500 hitting an all-time high and the Dow Jones a record close.

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Nvidia stock edged lower, snapping a five-session run, but remains actionable from multiple entries. Nvidia (NVDA) chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reported strong sales early Wednesday.

Cruise lines were big winners Wednesday, with Carnival (CCL), Viking Holdings (VIK) flashing buy signals and peers sailing higher.

Delta Air Lines (DAL) earnings are expected to fall, but investors are bullish about the outlook for airlines and travel generally. Delta stock rose Wednesday toward a 52.45 cup-with-handle buy point.

Nvidia and Viking stock are on IBD Leaderboard. Nvidia stock is on SwingTrader and the IBD 50. Carnival was Wednesday’s IBD Stock Of The Day.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures edged higher vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were steady.

Crude oil futures rose.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Hurricane Milton

Hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida as a Category 3 storm Wednesday night. Insurance stocks rose for a second straight session after tumbling Monday, while Generac (GNRC) held in a buy zone. But the damage may not be clear for some time.

CPI Inflation Report

The Labor Department will release the September consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. ET. The CPI should rise 0.1% vs. August, with core CPI up 0.2%. Overall CPI inflation should cool to 2.3% vs. a year earlier, while core inflation holds at 3.2%.

The PPI inflation report is due Friday.

Barring a big surprise, the CPI inflation report may not have a big market impact, or alter expectations for gradual Fed rate cuts ahead. Inflation is trending lower while economic data has been firming up.

Fed minutes from the September meeting released Wednesday showed policymakers were split on a big rate cut, but went ahead with a half-point move.

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Stock Market Rally Wednesday

The stock market rally had notable gains after Tuesday’s solid rebound.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ran up 1% in Wednesday’s stock market trading, setting an all-time closing best. The S&P 500 index gained 0.7%, marking a record high. The Nasdaq composite advanced 0.6%, hitting its best close in two-months and breaking a downtrend. The small-cap Russell 2000 edged up 0.2%, rising slightly from its 21-day line.

Leading stocks are acting well. After a period of relatively few actionable stocks, a flurry of buy signals have come in the past couple of sessions from a variety of groups.

U.S. crude oil prices dipped 0.45% to $73.24 a barrel, but came well off lows.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose three basis points to 4.065%, reaching its highest level since the end of July.

ETFs

Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) advanced 0.7%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) rose 1.3%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed 1%, with Nvidia stock the No. 1 holding.

Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) rose a fraction and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) fell 2%. Tesla stock is a major holding across Ark Invest’s ETFs. Cathie Wood also has built up a big stake in Nvidia.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) climbed 0.6%. U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) dipped 0.3%, with Delta stock a big member. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) edged up 0.2%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) rose 0.6% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) gained 1%.

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) and Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) were up 0.9%.

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Cruise Line Stocks Cruising

Cruise lines soared Wednesday as Citigroup raised price targets on Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) and made generally bullish comments about the industry.

Carnival stock jumped just over 7%, running right through the buy zone of a cup-with-handle base.

Viking Holding stock gained 2.6%, back in a buy zone.

Norwegian Cruise Line stock leapt 10.9%, exiting a buy zone.

Royal Caribbean (RCL), already extended, sailed 5.3% to a new high.

Tesla Robotaxi Event

The “We, Robot” Tesla robotaxi event takes place at the Warner Bros. studio lot at 7 p.m. PT Thursday.

Elon Musk is expected to show off a robotaxi, which a rising number of reports say will be a two-seat car with butterfly-wing doors. It’s possible he’ll also unveil an autonomous van.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives, a longtime Tesla and Full Self-Driving bull, said the robotaxi event will be a “seminal and historical day for Musk and Tesla and marks a new chapter of growth around autonomous,” expecting  “game changing” autonomous technology.

Musk will surely tout Tesla’s self-driving efforts broadly and express optimism that full autonomy is coming soon. But he’s said that for years. So will Tesla and Musk change anyone’s minds on Tesla’s self-driving?

Meanwhile, Tesla could also show off a long-awaited “affordable” vehicle, while the latest Optimus robot may make an appearance.

Tesla stock fell 1.4% to 241.05, just below its 21-day line. The EV giant has a 264.86 cup-with-handle buy point, according to MarketSurge. The 250 area offers an early entry. But buying before the robotaxi event would be highly risky.

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What To Do Now

The stock market rally is looking strong. The S&P 500 is at record highs while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq look poised to clear recent tight areas. Buying opportunities have picked up, with market leadership broad.

Investors could choose to add exposure. How much exposure, including going on margin, depends on your risk tolerance and ability to act quickly. Alternatively, you could offset new buys by paring some weaker holdings.

A number of setups are developing, so make sure your watchlists are up to date. Have your game plan ready before the trading day, because it’s harder to control emotions when trading starts.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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