Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide prediction: Odds, expert picks, player news, stats, and trends

Georgia is coming off a bye week following a tenuous 13-12 victory over Kentucky in which they only earned a 44% win expectancy based on game play. The Wildcats gained 23 first downs to Georgia’s 12 and out-rushed the Bulldogs 170-to-102 yards. UK goaded Georgia into 9 penalties for 85 yards, while the Wildcats themselves committed just four penalties for 23 yards along with a costly fumble. Prior to that hiccup, UGA basted a strong Clemson team 34-3 in their opener and fields a 3 defense that is rated 1st nationally in IsoPPP and Marginal Explosiveness. While still potent, the offense isn’t hitting home runs at the same rate they did last year now that McConkey and Bowers have moved on, ranking 99th in offensive explosiveness.

The biggest challenge Alabama has faced thus far came from a plucky USF squad that played the Tide to a 14-13 standstill for three quarters before a 28-point Q4 Bama explosion put the game away. New HC Kalen DeBouer just passes his first Power Four test with flying colors, eviscerating Wisconsin 42-10 with QB Jalen Milroe averaging 10.3 yards per attempt and Alabama out gaining the Badgers 407-to-290 total yards. The Tide are fielding the third-ranked SP+ offense and sixth-ranked defense, but they’re lagging behind the competition with a special teams unit that currently ranks 84th according to SP+.

We broke down this game indepth on this week’s episode of Bet the EDGE: The College Football Edition.

Listen to the B1G Talk podcast with Todd Blackledge and Noah Eagle for the most compelling storylines across all of college football, with the biggest teams on the rise and the latest rankings! 

Game Details and How to watch Georgia @ Alabama live Saturday Night

· Date: Saturday, September 28th, 2024
· Time: 7:30 PM EST
· Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium
· City: Tuscaloosa, Alabama
· TV/Streaming: ABC/ESPN+

Want to check out the other games on the College Football schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!

Latest Game odds for Georgia @ Alabama – Week 5

The latest odds as of Thursday:
· Moneyline: Georgia -125, Alabama +105
· Spread: Georgia -1.5
· Total: 48.5 points

*odds courtesy of BetMGM

The market opened at Georgia -4.5/-162 and while BetMGM is currently at -1.5/-125, the line is showing -2 in some spots. The game total has dropped slightly from 49.5 at open to 48.5 at time of publishing, and Alabama’s moneyline has decreased from +136 to +105 over the week.

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers. 

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

Eric Froton (@CFFroton) likes the visitors in this one.
“While both teams have looked mortal at times this season, Alabama/USF and Georgia/Kentucky, there are nits to be picked equally. In what purports to be a coin flip situation like their unforgettable 27-24 tilt in the SEC Championship, I’m banking on the steady hand of Carson Beck over the explosive potential of Jalen Milroe. Give me Georgia -115 Moneyline.”

From the Trading Desk at BetMGM courtesy of John Ewing: National Championship

Line movement (Last Week to Now)
· Texas +550 to +500
· Alabama +900 to +800
· Tennessee +1600 to +1200

Highest Ticket%
· Ohio State 16.0%
· Texas 11.3%
· Georgia 11.3%

Highest Handle%
· Ohio State 17.9%
· Georgia 16.1%
· Miami 10.7%

Biggest Liabilities
· Tennessee
· Ohio State
· Miami

Quarterback matchup for Georgia @ Alabama

· Georgia: Carson Beck entered the 2024 season as a Heisman favorite after completing 72% of his passes for 9.2 yards per attempt and 3,941 passing yards. Beck’s passing yardage ranked as the highest single-season mark among returning signal callers, he’s been sacked on just 2% of his pass attempts since 2023 and just once in the fourth quarter, both the third-best marks in FBS. An efficient distributor, Beck’s 2.39s average release time on his passes is the lowest mark among returnees. Stetson Bennett’s successor is coming off a lackluster performance against Kentucky in which he produced the lowest single-game NFL passer rating (81.9) of his career, so the blueprint to stifle Beck’s effectiveness has been laid out. We will see if Alabama can push the pocket and dial up nine pressures like UK did in Week 3.

· Alabama: Dual-threat QB Jalen Milroe wasn’t asked to throw with the frequency of his Georgia counterpart, uncorking 284 passes compared with Beck’s 418, but his 10.0 YPA was second nationally behind only Heisman winning QB Jayden Daniels. Milroe’s career 31-to-12 big time throw-to-turnover worthy play ratio shows his legitimate arm-talent, in addition to running for 687 yards and 18 rushing touchdowns dating back to 2023. The big knock on Milroe is his troubling career 31% pressure-to-sack rate, which has dipped slightly this season to 25%. HC Kalen DeBouer has mitigated those issues by running the ball at a 70% clip on standard downs (11th in FBS) with Milroe taking just 63 dropbacks in three games this season. Despite a perfect 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio, Milroe ranks just 45th in PFF passing grade among 133 qualifying FBS quarterbacks.

Player news & recent stats

· While Georgia RB Trevor Etienne has averaged 6.5 YPC and 4.4 yards after contact in his two games with UGA, his 3.3 yards per touch average on 3rd downs since 2023 is the lowest among starting SEC running backs, so it will be interesting to see how he is used in that capacity going forward.

· UGA WR Dominic Lovett has secured 10 red zone receptions dating back to the beginning of last season, the second-highest mark in the SEC (8th in P4) behind only Missouri superstar WR Luther Burden.

· Alabama is 8-2 ATS when intercepting at least one pass since 2023, tied for best among P4 programs with Penn State, Tennessee and Arizona. They are 6-1 ATS when allowing less than three sacks. Protection was an issue last year though, with the Tide allowing 4+ sacks in seven games.

· Though there is a new coaching staff in Tuscaloosa, Bama is undefeated (7-0) in one score games dating back to the beginning of last year. However they are 1-6 ATS when converting less than 50% of their third-down opportunities, 10-worst in FBS.

College Football talk is taking over Bet the Edge every Thursday throughout the season. Bet the EDGE is your source for all things sports betting. Get all of Vaughn Dalzell, Eric Froton, and Brad Thomas’ insights Thursdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

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