Heisman Trophy tiers, odds and a pick: Who will win college football’s most coveted award this season?

You’re not going out on much of a limb if you’re predicting that a quarterback will be hoisting the Heisman Trophy in December.

Just four non-QBs have won the award since the turn of the century and the trend is highly likely to continue this season. Per BetMGM’s odds, the top 22 favorites for the award are all quarterbacks.

Here’s a look at how the Heisman race stands ahead of the start of the 2024 season as many of the favorites are signal callers for teams likely to be in the conversation for the expanded College Football Playoff at the end of the season.

The favorites

There aren’t many surprises among this group. Each player quarterbacks a serious national title contender entering the 2024 season. Gabriel has surged to favorite status this summer after Bo Nix set an NCAA record for completion percentage with the Ducks in 2023. Asking Gabriel to break Nix’s new record is a lot, but he should be a great fit for an Oregon offense that brings a ton of talent back ahead of its first season in the Big Ten.

Beck was fantastic in his first year as a starter for the Bulldogs and figures to be even better with the experience under his belt. Ewers eschewed the chance to head to the NFL for another season in Austin after a College Football Playoff appearance and a breakout campaign. Milroe got a lot better as the 2023 season went on and is a fascinating player to watch in new Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer’s offense.

Like Gabriel, Dart has moved up the board recently as Ole Miss is a popular pick to challenge for the SEC title and make the playoff. Howard comes to Ohio State from Kansas State and the Buckeyes hope he’s the missing piece for a national title run.

The next tier

Iamaleava enters the season as the No. 8 favorite even though he has just one career start. He looked great in the Citrus Bowl and Tennessee’s offense should be fantastic with the former five-star recruit taking over for Joe Milton. If the Vols get into the playoff, Iamaleava will be a big reason why.

Nussmeier is the guy tasked with replacing reigning Heisman winner Jayden Daniels at LSU and he will be breaking in a new set of receivers. He’ll also have a new offensive coordinator. Mike Denbrock, who ran LSU’s offense last season, is now at Notre Dame and calling plays for Leonard. The former Duke QB struggled in 2023 as he dealt with injuries. If he can stay healthy, Notre Dame is in line for a big season.

Johnson’s emergence over the second half of the 2023 season helped push Howard into the transfer portal. He could be the fastest starting QB in college football. Weigman looked good in his brief time as the Aggies’ starter in 2023 before a season-ending foot injury. Any hopes of a 10-win season in College Station likely hinge on his health.

Ward, meanwhile, is tasked with leading a playoff push for the Hurricanes. Miami loaded up in the transfer portal over the offseason and landed Ward from Washington State after a flirtation with the NFL Draft. His odds have steadily decreased as the season approaches and he’s no longer a sleeper favorite for the award.

The sleeper QBs

If you’re looking at a quarterback in this group to emerge as a Heisman contender, the best bets would seem to be Arnold, Cook and Allar. The Missouri and Penn State QBs each play for teams harboring serious playoff hopes and schedules that make 10-win seasons look like real possibilities. Arnold had a rough starting debut in the Alamo Bowl, but he should be much improved after a full offseason as the Sooners’ starter.

Daniels was the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year in 2023 but was limited by a back injury. We’re excited to see what he can do if he’s healthy.

Sanders, meanwhile, is in this tier simply because of bettors’ fascination with Colorado. A lot has to go right for Colorado if he’s going to be a Heisman contender. And we all saw how quickly things went wrong for the Buffaloes in 2023.

The long shot QBs

• Arizona QB Noah Fifita (+4000)

• Utah QB Cam Rising (+4000)

• USC QB Miller Moss (+4000)

• Florida State QB D.J. Uiagalelei (+4000)

• Clemson QB Cade Klubnik (+5000)

• USC QB Jayden Maiava (+8000)

Yes, there are two USC QBs in this group. The competition in Los Angeles was the biggest of the offseason as the UNLV transfer (and brief Georgia commit) Maiava arrived to push Moss for the starting job. Moss eventually won the battle and will fill the role left by top NFL Draft pick Caleb Williams.

Rising is back for a seventh season of college football after he missed 2023 with a knee injury he sustained in the Rose Bowl the prior season. The Utes are the preseason favorites in the Big 12. Fifita lost his head coach Jedd Fisch to Washington, but Arizona should still be very good under former San Jose State coach Brent Brennan.

Uiagalelei is taking over for Jordan Travis at Florida State and he’s off to a rough start after the Seminoles’ loss to Georgia Tech on Saturday in their season opener. We’ll see how Mike Norvell adapts his offense to fit Uiagalelei’s skillset.

Klubnik had an uneven season last year in his first season in Garrett Riley’s offense. Another offseason of familiarity could pay big dividends.

The top non-QBs

Yes, you have to go all the way down to 50-1 odds to find the first non-quarterback on the board. And it’s hard to make a Heisman case for many of these players. Hunter is phenomenal and a rare athlete. But his chances hinge on serious improvement for the Buffs. And have you seen their 2024 schedule?

Judkins was hampered by injury in 2023 and regressed from a stellar freshman season at Ole Miss. He and Henderson are the best 1-2 punch at running back in college football. Will either player earn enough carries to get Heisman consideration?

It doesn’t look like Gordon will receive a suspension of any kind for his offseason DUI arrest and may have the best Heisman chances of anyone in this bunch as a result. He rushed for over 1,700 yards a season ago and will be the Cowboys’ offensive engine again in 2024.

Burden enters the season as perhaps the best WR in college football. But he’ll likely have to put up a DeVonta Smith-like season to win the award. Edwards was huge for the Wolverines in the national title game after a lackluster season. If that’s a sign of things to come in 2024 with Blake Corum off to the NFL, he’s worth a flier.

Prediction

The justification here is pretty simple. Beck is set to be the best player on the best team in the toughest conference in the country. Georgia is the overwhelming preseason pick in the SEC despite a schedule that features Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss. Beck is a big reason why. He was fantastic in his first season as a starter in 2023 and should only get better in 2024. He’s primed for a big season that could set him up to be the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.