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How Does Seider’s New Deal Compare to High-End Defense Market?

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3 months ago

September 20, 2024

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How Does Seider’s New Deal Compare to High-End Defense Market?

TRAVERSE CITY, Mich.—He hasn’t yet arrived at training camp, but Moritz Seider has his brand new seven-year, $59.85 million deal to remain a Detroit Red Wing through 2028. It was welcome news for Red Wing fans everywhere, but how does Seider’s $8.55 AAV compare to other high-end contracts for defensemen around the league. Let’s take a look at some deals within about a million dollars annually of Seider’s:

Apr 7, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider (53) skates with the puck in the first period against the Buffalo Sabres at Little Caesars Arena<p><button class= — Apr 7, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider (53) skates with the puck in the first period against the Buffalo Sabres at Little Caesars Arena

© Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Owen Power (Buffalo Sabres, seven years, $8.35 million AAV) & Jake Sanderson (Ottawa Senators, eight years, $8.05 million AAV): the Divisional Rivals

What I like about the comparison here with Seider is that you have three very similar contracts (two seven deals and one eight, with just an AAV range of just a half million. They’ve also all been signed by Atlantic Division rivals that are looking to make the same leap in the standings over the course of those contracts. Chances are, all three deals won’t (and perhaps can’t) work out the way the teams signing them envisioned.

If I could have any of the three regardless of contract, I think I would chose Seider. The immediacy with which he emerged as an impact player (and, in fact, Detroit’s number one defenseman) and his ability to confront an obscenely difficult work load.

Regardless, it will be an interesting Atlantic Division storyline for nearly the next decade to track the health and viability of these contracts, as well as the teams and players who signed them.

Seth Jones (Chicago Blackhawks, eight years, $9.5 million AAV) & Darnell Nurse (Edmonton Oilers, eight years, $9.25): The Cautionary Tales

These two contracts were arguably both regrettable the moment they were signed, and within a year or two, it became inarguable. Among the most intensely analytically inclined, there has been some suggestion that Seider may be on this trajectory, but it’s not too hard to argue that those ignominious public underlying numbers are more a function of Seider’s difficult workload than his ability. In that regard, avoiding the worst case scenario here is to some extent more about the Red Wings’ choices around usage than Seider’s actual performance.

Miro Heiskanen (Dallas Stars, eight years, $8.45 million AAV) & Quinn Hughes (Vancouver Canucks, six years, $7.85 million AAV): The Bargains

These are the two players on this list where right now, it’s hard to argue anything other than that they are better and cheaper than Seider right now. However, the obvious explanation for that fact is that these two players are both heading into the fourth year of those deals, and they were signed when the league was in the thick of its post-COVID salary cap crunch.

Adam Fox (New York Rangers, seven years, $9.5 million AAV) & Charlie McAvoy (Boston Bruins, eight years, $9.5 million AAV): The Gold Standards?

Fox value is indisputable. He’s making more than Seider, but he’s also a Norris winner who has shown greater offensive upside. Seider’s career high in points came in his rookie year, when he put up 50; Fox is coming off his third straight season with 70+ points. It’s outstanding value for the Rangers. McAvoy however is a slightly story. I suspect the consensus around the league is that McAvoy is a far superior player to Seider, but that looks like a gap the German could quite reasonably close.