In Roob’s Eagles Observations: How insanely predictable the Eagles have become on third down

In Roob’s Eagles Observations: How insanely predictable the Eagles have become on third down originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

An ominous Jalen Hurts stat, an ignominious Eagles streak that dates more than 30 years and the insane story of Davey O’Brien’s record-setting NFL game.

You should know by now there are no bye weeks for Roob’s Observations. We’re old school. We never stop. You’ll get 10 random Eagles observations every weekend of the year. Here’s this week’s edition:

1. This is sobering. Take a look at how far Jalen Hurts’ performance has plunged from the start of his career to the present (kneel downs removed from rushing stats):
Hurts’ first eight career starts: 89.7 passer rating, 503 rushing yards, 6.6 rushing average, 3-5 record.

Hurts’ last eight career starts: 79.4 passer rating, eight touchdown passes, nine interceptions, 314 rushing yards, 4.6 rushing average, 3-5 record.

Hurts was actually better in his first eight career starts – four after replacing Carson Wentz at the end of 2020 and the first four weeks of 2021 before Shane Steichen took over play calling – than his last eight. This kind of regression at this point in his career is alarming.

I’m still not convinced Hurts can’t snap out of this funk. He’s done some good things this year when he wasn’t turning the ball over, and that 68 percent accuracy is encouraging. But it’s hard to have a lot of success when you do turn the ball over nearly twice a game.

Hurts will presumably have all his weapons – and offensive linemen – back after the bye, and only one of the Eagles’ next nine opponents currently has a winning record. If he can’t turn it around during that stretch … we’ll see.

1B. Hurts has three red-zone turnovers this year – two interceptions and one fumble. No other quarterback has more than one. And every other quarterback combined has nine. Hurts has 25 percent of all quarterback red-zone turnovers in the NFL this year.

2. When Nick Sirianni spoke the other day about how Saquon Barkley only had two carries on the Eagles’ first three drives against the Bucs, he said the Eagles only had nine total plays on those three drives, so there just weren’t many opportunities for him to carry the ball. And then he corrected himself and explained that it was actually six opportunities for Barkley to run the ball and not nine because three of those plays were third downs. So the inference was that Barkley is not a viable option on third down. Which I just don’t get. At all. But that’s apparently how the Eagles’ offensive coaches look at Barkley. As a guy who can’t get the ball on third down. And the stats bear it out. Somehow, Barkley has only three rushing attempts on third down this year. There are 49 running backs or quarterbacks with more 3^rd-down carries. Considering Hurts’ struggles on third down – no touchdowns, three interceptions, an NFL-worst 47.0 passer rating – maybe mixing things up on third down would make sense? And I don’t want to hear about all these 3rd-and-longs. The Eagles have had 23 third downs with four yards or less to go. I’m not buying that Barkley can’t be a weapon on those plays. Against defenses expecting the pass? Hurts also has 15 carries on third down and four sacks. Kenny Gainwell has one 3^rd-down carry, so 50 of the Eagles’ 54 third-down plays have been Hurts drop backs or scrambles. That’s insane. That’s 93 percent. And 93 percent of anything is too much.

3A. Since Week 13 of last year, a week after the Eagles traded him to the Texans, Derek Barnett has more sacks (5 ½) than all Eagles edge rushers combined (5.0). Barnett had 3 ½ sacks in seven games with Houston last year and has 2.0 this year. During the same period for the Eagles, Josh Sweat and Haason Reddick have two sacks each and Brandon Graham has one. Barnett had two sacks in his last 28 games with the Eagles. He has 5 ½ in 11 games with Houston.

3B. The Texans’ coaching staff is loaded with guys with Eagles connections. Obviously, head coach DeMeco Ryans played for the Eagles from 2012 through 2015, but defensive coordinator Matt Burke was here under Doug Pederson in 2019 and 2020, defensive passing game coordinator Cory Undlin was here from 2015 through 2019 under Chip Kelly and Pederson, linebackers coach Billy Davis was defensive coordinator under Kelly from 2013 through 2015 and coached Ryans (and Barnett) during that span, secondary coach Dino Vasso was here under Pederson from 2016 through 2020 and on offense Texans senior offensive assistant Bill Lazor was Kelly’s quarterbacks coach in 2013.

4. The Eagles have forced just 12 turnovers in their last 18 games going back to the first Washington game last year. That matches the fewest turnovers they’ve ever forced in any 18-game span in franchise history. And that’s a history that goes back 92 years. They also forced just 12 turnovers in an 18-game span over the last 14 games of 2012 and the first four of 2013.

5. The Eagles have gone six straight games without leading at any point in any game by more than five points. It’s the first time that’s happened in 31 years. Last time they led by at least six points was at 28-21 with 5:26 left in the fourth quarter of the loss to the Cards at the Linc in Week 17 last year. So they’ve gone 365 minutes and 26 seconds without holding a six-point lead over anybody. That’s their longest streak since 1993, when they went nine straight games without leading by more than five points. That year they opened the season with a six-point win over the Cards, but they didn’t lead by six again until Week 13 when a Matt Bahr field goal and Vaughn Hebron rushing touchdown gave them a 10-0 2^nd-quarter lead over Washington at RFK Stadium in a game they won 17-14. Including the nine games they never led by six and the first 11:37 of the Washington game, they went 551 minutes, 37 seconds without leading by more than five points.

6A. Something seems completely wrong when the Eagles have to trade a 3^rd-round pick to get Jahan Dotson from the Commanders, and he has just 25 receiving yards in four games, but the Commanders signed free agent Olamide Zaccheaus when the Eagles didn’t want him for next to nothing – one year, $1.275 million – and he had six catches for 85 yards last weekend and was the Commanders’ leading receiver in Washington’s win over the Cards? O.Z. already has as many catches in four games in Washington this year (10) as he had in 17 games last year with the Eagles.

6B. The Eagles have gone 32 meaningful games without a wide receiver other than DeVonta Smith or A.J. Brown recording 60 yards in a game. Quez Watkins had 80 vs. Washington late in the 2022 season and that’s it. Watkins did have 93 yards on the last day of last season after Nick Sirianni pulled his starters because the Eagles were locked into the five seed. The most yards by an Eagles WR other than Smith or Brown this year? Britain Covey’s 23 yards against the Falcons. Not ideal.

7. This is nuts, but the Eagles are one of only three teams to rank in the top 10 in the NFL in offense in 2022, 2023 and so far in 2024. The others are the 49ers and Lions. The Eagles ranked 2^nd in 2022 at 389 yards per game, 8^th last year at 354 yards per game and they’re 8^th again this year at 366 yards per game. Overall, the Eagles are 5^thin offense over the last three years under three different offensive coordinators.

8A. Good to see Harold Jackson make the latest cut for Hall of Fame seniors committee consideration. I never understood why Jackson isn’t already in the Hall of Fame. He led the NFL in receiving yards twice during his short stay with the Eagles and led the NFL in touchdowns once with the Rams. Through 1981, Jackson had the 3^rd-most receiving yards in NFL history (10,246), yet he’s the only guy in the top eight on that list who’s not already in the Hall. His 29 100-yard games through 1981 were 4^th-most in NFL history (behind Don Maynard, Lance Alworth and the criminally under-rated Art Powell, a 1959 Eagles draft pick who also made the seniors committee cut). To this day Jackson is one of only three players in NFL history with 10,000 receiving yards, a 17.9 average and 76 touchdowns. The other two are Hall of Famers Maynard and Alworth. Jackson put up huge receiving numbers in an era when that wasn’t the norm. Everybody else who put up similar stats during that era is in the Hall of Fame. Jackson should be. The other thing about Jackson is here’s a guy who was a 12^th-round draft pick and became one of the best WRs in NFL history. He had the most receiving yards by a player drafted that late for 30 years, until Keenan McCardle passed him. Jackson’s one-time teammate Harold Carmichael deservedly got into the Hall of Fame in 2020, and Jackson had 11 fewer catches, 1,387 more yards, three fewer touchdowns, 2 ½ more yards per catch and slightly more yards per game (49.9 to 49.4). Any way you look at it, Jackson is a Hall of Famer.

8B. Speaking of receivers named Jackson who played for the Eagles and surpassed 10,000 yards and had a high yards-per-catch average, DeSean Jackson is one of only three players in NFL history with 11,000 yards and a 17.5 average. Hall of Famers Maynard and Alworth are the others.

9. A quick thought on Darius Slay’s week: For me it comes down to this – A guy who’s 33 and in his 12^th NFL season should know better. I don’t think he should be fined or disciplined or be stripped of his captaincy, but you expect a veteran like Slay to use better judgment when it comes to social media and what podcasts he chooses to be on. Despite all this, you see Slay’s leadership every day with how he takes all the young corners under his wing, works with them during and after practice, advises them on real-world responsibilities, helps them adjust to the challenges of being a pro and so on. He’s incredibly generous with his time and storehouse of knowledge that comes from being a top cornerback for over a decade. My biggest concern with Slay, though, is that he’s not the player he used to be, which shouldn’t surprise anybody considering his age. You don’t see a lot of 33-year-old Pro Bowl cornerbacks – Champ Bailey was the last one, back in 2012. Quarterbacks are 14-for-21 for 129 yards and two touchdowns when targeting Slay so far this year, and his 115.0 opposing passer rating ranks 70^th of 83 corners who’ve faced at least 10 targets this year. He hasn’t been awful, but right now Slay is an average or slightly below average cornerback. He’s under contract for one more year, but there’s a reason the Eagles drafted Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. This could easily be Slay’s last year here. Not because of social media but because of the way he’s playing.

10. How about an Eagles franchise record that’s stood for 84 years? On Dec. 1, 1940, the Eagles lost 13-6 to Washington at the old Griffith Stadium in Washington, D.C. The Eagles’ quarterback that day was Davey O’Brien, who the Eagles drafted out of Texas Christian with the fourth overall pick a year earlier. O’Brien – the first Heisman Trophy winner ever – completed 33 of 60 passes that day for 316 yards with one touchdown (to Frank Emmons) and – significantly – no interceptions. To this day, that’s the most passes thrown in a game in Eagles history without an interception. Sam Bradford came close – he threw 56 passes in a 2015 loss to Washington at the Linc without an INT – and Donovan McNabb threw 55 passes without an interception in the Eagles’ overtime win over the Steelers at Three Rivers in 2000. But O’Brien’s performance remains the record. Matter of fact, it was an NFL record at the time and it stood for 51 years. In 1991, Rich Gannon of the Vikings threw 63 passes in an overtime loss to the Patriots without an INT. In 1994, Drew Bledsoe set an NFL record with 70 passes without an interception in another Patriots overtime win over the Vikings. Most passes ever against the Eagles without an INT? Dan Marino and Tom Brady each threw 54, Marino in 1990 and Brady in 2007. O’Brien – who was 5-foot-7, 150 pounds – retired with a 2-19-1 career won-lost record and a 41.8 passer rating – 3^rd-worst in NFL history. The wildest thing about O’Brien’s historic 60-attempt performance that day in 1940? It was the last game of his career. He retired at 23 years old to take a job with the FBI.

An ominous Jalen Hurts stat, an ignominious Eagles streak that dates more than 30 years and the insane story of Davey O’Brien’s record-setting NFL game.

You should know by now there are no bye weeks for Roob’s Observations. We’re old school. We never stop. You’ll get 10 random Eagles observations every weekend of the year. Here’s this week’s edition:

1. This is sobering. Take a look at how far Jalen Hurts’ performance has plunged from the start of his career to the present (kneel downs removed from rushing stats):
Hurts’ first eight career starts: 89.7 passer rating, 503 rushing yards, 6.6 rushing average, 3-5 record.

Hurts’ last eight career starts: 79.4 passer rating, eight touchdown passes, nine interceptions, 314 rushing yards, 4.6 rushing average, 3-5 record.

Hurts was actually better in his first eight career starts – four after replacing Carson Wentz at the end of 2020 and the first four weeks of 2021 before Shane Steichen took over play calling – than his last eight. This kind of regression at this point in his career is alarming.

I’m still not convinced Hurts can’t snap out of this funk. He’s done some good things this year when he wasn’t turning the ball over, and that 68 percent accuracy is encouraging. But it’s hard to have a lot of success when you do turn the ball over nearly twice a game.

Hurts will presumably have all his weapons – and offensive linemen – back after the bye, and only one of the Eagles’ next nine opponents currently has a winning record. If he can’t turn it around during that stretch … we’ll see.

1B. Hurts has three red-zone turnovers this year – two interceptions and one fumble. No other quarterback has more than one. And every other quarterback combined has nine. Hurts has 25 percent of all quarterback red-zone turnovers in the NFL this year.

2. When Nick Sirianni spoke the other day about how Saquon Barkley only had two carries on the Eagles’ first three drives against the Bucs, he said the Eagles only had nine total plays on those three drives, so there just weren’t many opportunities for him to carry the ball. And then he corrected himself and explained that it was actually six opportunities for Barkley to run the ball and not nine because three of those plays were third downs. So the inference was that Barkley is not a viable option on third down. Which I just don’t get. At all. But that’s apparently how the Eagles’ offensive coaches look at Barkley. As a guy who can’t get the ball on third down. And the stats bear it out. Somehow, Barkley has only three rushing attempts on third down this year. There are 49 running backs or quarterbacks with more 3^rd-down carries. Considering Hurts’ struggles on third down – no touchdowns, three interceptions, an NFL-worst 47.0 passer rating – maybe mixing things up on third down would make sense? And I don’t want to hear about all these 3rd-and-longs. The Eagles have had 23 third downs with four yards or less to go. I’m not buying that Barkley can’t be a weapon on those plays. Against defenses expecting the pass? Hurts also has 15 carries on third down and four sacks. Kenny Gainwell has one 3^rd-down carry, so 50 of the Eagles’ 54 third-down plays have been Hurts drop backs or scrambles. That’s insane. That’s 93 percent. And 93 percent of anything is too much.

3A. Since Week 13 of last year, a week after the Eagles traded him to the Texans, Derek Barnett has more sacks (5 ½) than all Eagles edge rushers combined (5.0). Barnett had 3 ½ sacks in seven games with Houston last year and has 2.0 this year. During the same period for the Eagles, Josh Sweat and Haason Reddick have two sacks each and Brandon Graham has one. Barnett had two sacks in his last 28 games with the Eagles. He has 5 ½ in 11 games with Houston.

3B. The Texans’ coaching staff is loaded with guys with Eagles connections. Obviously, head coach DeMeco Ryans played for the Eagles from 2012 through 2015, but defensive coordinator Matt Burke was here under Doug Pederson in 2019 and 2020, defensive passing game coordinator Cory Undlin was here from 2015 through 2019 under Chip Kelly and Pederson, linebackers coach Billy Davis was defensive coordinator under Kelly from 2013 through 2015 and coached Ryans (and Barnett) during that span, secondary coach Dino Vasso was here under Pederson from 2016 through 2020 and on offense Texans senior offensive assistant Bill Lazor was Kelly’s quarterbacks coach in 2013.

4. The Eagles have forced just 12 turnovers in their last 18 games going back to the first Washington game last year. That matches the fewest turnovers they’ve ever forced in any 18-game span in franchise history. And that’s a history that goes back 92 years. They also forced just 12 turnovers in an 18-game span over the last 14 games of 2012 and the first four of 2013.

5. The Eagles have gone six straight games without leading at any point in any game by more than five points. It’s the first time that’s happened in 31 years. Last time they led by at least six points was at 28-21 with 5:26 left in the fourth quarter of the loss to the Cards at the Linc in Week 17 last year. So they’ve gone 365 minutes and 26 seconds without holding a six-point lead over anybody. That’s their longest streak since 1993, when they went nine straight games without leading by more than five points. That year they opened the season with a six-point win over the Cards, but they didn’t lead by six again until Week 13 when a Matt Bahr field goal and Vaughn Hebron rushing touchdown gave them a 10-0 2^nd-quarter lead over Washington at RFK Stadium in a game they won 17-14. Including the nine games they never led by six and the first 11:37 of the Washington game, they went 551 minutes, 37 seconds without leading by more than five points.

6A. Something seems completely wrong when the Eagles have to trade a 3^rd-round pick to get Jahan Dotson from the Commanders, and he has just 25 receiving yards in four games, but the Commanders signed free agent Olamide Zaccheaus when the Eagles didn’t want him for next to nothing – one year, $1.275 million – and he had six catches for 85 yards last weekend and was the Commanders’ leading receiver in Washington’s win over the Cards? O.Z. already has as many catches in four games in Washington this year (10) as he had in 17 games last year with the Eagles.

6B. The Eagles have gone 32 meaningful games without a wide receiver other than DeVonta Smith or A.J. Brown recording 60 yards in a game. Quez Watkins had 80 vs. Washington late in the 2022 season and that’s it. Watkins did have 93 yards on the last day of last season after Nick Sirianni pulled his starters because the Eagles were locked into the five seed. The most yards by an Eagles WR other than Smith or Brown this year? Britain Covey’s 23 yards against the Falcons. Not ideal.

7. This is nuts, but the Eagles are one of only three teams to rank in the top 10 in the NFL in offense in 2022, 2023 and so far in 2024. The others are the 49ers and Lions. The Eagles ranked 2^nd in 2022 at 389 yards per game, 8^th last year at 354 yards per game and they’re 8^th again this year at 366 yards per game. Overall, the Eagles are 5^thin offense over the last three years under three different offensive coordinators.

8A. Good to see Harold Jackson make the latest cut for Hall of Fame seniors committee consideration. I never understood why Jackson isn’t already in the Hall of Fame. He led the NFL in receiving yards twice during his short stay with the Eagles and led the NFL in touchdowns once with the Rams. Through 1981, Jackson had the 3^rd-most receiving yards in NFL history (10,246), yet he’s the only guy in the top eight on that list who’s not already in the Hall. His 29 100-yard games through 1981 were 4^th-most in NFL history (behind Don Maynard, Lance Alworth and the criminally under-rated Art Powell, a 1959 Eagles draft pick who also made the seniors committee cut). To this day Jackson is one of only three players in NFL history with 10,000 receiving yards, a 17.9 average and 76 touchdowns. The other two are Hall of Famers Maynard and Alworth. Jackson put up huge receiving numbers in an era when that wasn’t the norm. Everybody else who put up similar stats during that era is in the Hall of Fame. Jackson should be. The other thing about Jackson is here’s a guy who was a 12^th-round draft pick and became one of the best WRs in NFL history. He had the most receiving yards by a player drafted that late for 30 years, until Keenan McCardle passed him. Jackson’s one-time teammate Harold Carmichael deservedly got into the Hall of Fame in 2020, and Jackson had 11 fewer catches, 1,387 more yards, three fewer touchdowns, 2 ½ more yards per catch and slightly more yards per game (49.9 to 49.4). Any way you look at it, Jackson is a Hall of Famer.

8B. Speaking of receivers named Jackson who played for the Eagles and surpassed 10,000 yards and had a high yards-per-catch average, DeSean Jackson is one of only three players in NFL history with 11,000 yards and a 17.5 average. Hall of Famers Maynard and Alworth are the others.

9. A quick thought on Darius Slay’s week: For me it comes down to this – A guy who’s 33 and in his 12^th NFL season should know better. I don’t think he should be fined or disciplined or be stripped of his captaincy, but you expect a veteran like Slay to use better judgment when it comes to social media and what podcasts he chooses to be on. Despite all this, you see Slay’s leadership every day with how he takes all the young corners under his wing, works with them during and after practice, advises them on real-world responsibilities, helps them adjust to the challenges of being a pro and so on. He’s incredibly generous with his time and storehouse of knowledge that comes from being a top cornerback for over a decade. My biggest concern with Slay, though, is that he’s not the player he used to be, which shouldn’t surprise anybody considering his age. You don’t see a lot of 33-year-old Pro Bowl cornerbacks – Champ Bailey was the last one, back in 2012. Quarterbacks are 14-for-21 for 129 yards and two touchdowns when targeting Slay so far this year, and his 115.0 opposing passer rating ranks 70^th of 83 corners who’ve faced at least 10 targets this year. He hasn’t been awful, but right now Slay is an average or slightly below average cornerback. He’s under contract for one more year, but there’s a reason the Eagles drafted Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. This could easily be Slay’s last year here. Not because of social media but because of the way he’s playing.

10. How about an Eagles franchise record that’s stood for 84 years? On Dec. 1, 1940, the Eagles lost 13-6 to Washington at the old Griffith Stadium in Washington, D.C. The Eagles’ quarterback that day was Davey O’Brien, who the Eagles drafted out of Texas Christian with the fourth overall pick a year earlier. O’Brien – the first Heisman Trophy winner ever – completed 33 of 60 passes that day for 316 yards with one touchdown (to Frank Emmons) and – significantly – no interceptions. To this day, that’s the most passes thrown in a game in Eagles history without an interception. Sam Bradford came close – he threw 56 passes in a 2015 loss to Washington at the Linc without an INT – and Donovan McNabb threw 55 passes without an interception in the Eagles’ overtime win over the Steelers at Three Rivers in 2000. But O’Brien’s performance remains the record. Matter of fact, it was an NFL record at the time and it stood for 51 years. In 1991, Rich Gannon of the Vikings threw 63 passes in an overtime loss to the Patriots without an INT. In 1994, Drew Bledsoe set an NFL record with 70 passes without an interception in another Patriots overtime win over the Vikings. Most passes ever against the Eagles without an INT? Dan Marino and Tom Brady each threw 54, Marino in 1990 and Brady in 2007. O’Brien – who was 5-foot-7, 150 pounds – retired with a 2-19-1 career won-lost record and a 41.8 passer rating – 3^rd-worst in NFL history. The wildest thing about O’Brien’s historic 60-attempt performance that day in 1940? It was the last game of his career. He retired at 23 years old to take a job with the FBI.

Subscribe to Eagle Eye anywhere you get your podcasts: 
Apple Podcasts | YouTube Music | Spotify | Stitcher | Art19 | RSS | Watch on YouTube