Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes prediction: Odds, expert picks, player news, betting trends, and stats

In the offseason Ohio State decided they had enough of losing to Michigan, bringing in QB Will Howard, OC Chip Kelly, S Caleb Downs, RB Quinshon Judkins and perhaps the greatest freshman WR in modern history, Jeremiah Smith, in order to fortify their roster to make a run at the CFP National Championship. Through four games the results have been overwhelming, with OSU throttling their helpless opponents by a combined score of 195-27. Their lone P4 opponent, Michigan State, generated an anemic 246 total yards and averaged just 1.9 yards per carry in the lopsided 38-7 defeat. The Buckeyes rank 9th in SP+ offense and 2nd in defense, making OSU the current #1 team in the nation according to the numbers.

It’s hard to argue with the decision to jettison nepo-hire OC Brian Ferentz in favor of former Western Michigan HC Tim Lester, as the Hawkeyes are averaging twice as many points through four games in 2024 (30.7) than they did last season (15.4). In fact, Iowa has already eclipsed the 30-point barrier three times this season, which matches the sum total of 30+ point performances from the previous three years combined! HC Kirk Ferentz’ team is 3-1, dropping a 20-19 decision to arch-rival Iowa State thanks to some late-game heroics from QB Rocco Becht.

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

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Game Details and How to watch 2024 Iowa @ Ohio State live

· Date: Saturday, October 5, 2024
· Time: 3:30 PM EST
· Site: The Horseshoe
· City: Columbus, OH
· TV/Streaming: CBS

Want to check out the other games on the College Football schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!

Game odds for Iowa @ Ohio State – Week 6

The latest odds as of Friday morning:

This game opened at an aggressive OSU -24 and has since been steadily hammered down to the current -19.5/20 mark we’re seeing at time of print. Same with the moneyline with Ohio State cratering from -2100 to an enticing -1,100. Iowa ML has dipped from +1,100 down to a high of +950. The spread-related market fluctuations had little effect on the total however, opening and currently sitting in the 44.5-to-45.5 range.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) believes points will be aplenty in this contest:
“With Iowa currently batting .1000 going 4-for-4 to the Over, and Ohio State hitting the Over at a 75% clip this year, I’m following the trends and advocating for a play on the OVER 45.5 Points.”

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers. 

From the Trading Desk at BetMGM courtesy of John Ewing: Week 6 Insights

Most bet games (tickets)

1. Syracuse-UNLV

2. Michigan State-Oregon

3. Tennessee-Arkansas

Most bet teams (tickets)

1. Tennessee -13.5

2. UNLV -6.5

3. Michigan +1.5

Most bet teams (handle)

1. Navy -9

2. Alabama -23.5

3. Tennessee -13.5

Most bet Overs (tickets)

1. Michigan State-Oregon 52.5

2. Iowa-Ohio State 45.5

3. Syracuse-UNLV 57.5

Most bet Unders (tickets)

1. Baylor-Iowa State 44.5

2. Indiana-Northwestern 41.5

3. USC-Minnesota 49.5

Most bet underdogs to win (tickets)

1. Michigan +100

2. Missouri +115

3. Michigan State +1200

Quarterback matchup for Iowa @ Ohio State

• Ohio State: While he imported multiple impact transfers, HC Ryan Day made upgrading the QB position his #1 priority in the portal this offseason. Kansas State transplant QB Will Howard was the choice, and it’s paying off so far with Howard boosting his completion rate from 61- to-69% with an 8-to-2 ratio. It’s nice to see improvement with turnovers, as he threw 10 interceptions last year and cutting down on miscues was a point of emphasis for new OC Chip Kelly. Howard has taken just one sack and is currently sporting a 117.9 passer rating which is the highest mark of his five-year collegiate career. With the soft non-conference slate behind him, Howard now faces a gauntlet of strong defenses in Iowa/@Oregon/Nebraska/@Penn State.

• Iowa: Is the Hawkeyes’ 86th-ranked SP+ offense striking fear into the hearts of opposing DC’s after their aforementioned barrage of 30+ point showings this year? Well, not quite yet as their humdrum pass game still ranks 133rd in passes of 20+ yards, 128th in explosiveness and 120th in yards per dropback. However, at a respectable 73.8 PFF overall grade QB Cade McNamara looks like Iowa all-time passing leader Nathan Stanley compared to former super-sized starting Deacon Hill. OC Lester has McNamara completing 63% of his throws thanks to a conservative 6.8 ADOT designed to get the ball in playmakers’ hands quickly and efficiently. Well, as efficiently as the Iowa passing game can reasonably be expected to perform. So long as McNamara can be an accurate short-area distributor to offset a potentially very good Iowa run game, he should be effective.

Trends & recent stats

• Iowa is 8-3 ATS when intercepting 1+ passes, and 8-4 when allowing less than 3 sacks since 2023. Conversely, they are also winless (0-3) ATS when allowing 22 or more points

• Iowa’s run game has vastly improved from a year ago, ranking 18th in yards per successful rush, 15th in YPC and 7th with a robust 3.8 yards after contact. They averaged 3.3 YPC in 2023 and a meager 2.9 YPC in 2022, so this is a major positive development. 

• Despite some fairly aggressive totals OSU is 3-1 to the Over so far this season. Though the Buckeyes boast a +42-point average scoring margin (2nd in FBS), the Buckeyes are only 2-2 ATS.

• Ohio State’s defense has become a top-flight unit under the tutelage of DC Jim Knowles, as teams are petrified of throwing on them with OSU ranking #1 nationally defending 45% of their passes going for 0 or less air yards. Helps having a defensive line that’s pitching an 11.3% sack rate of course, 3rd-best nationally.

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