Iowa Hawkeyes vs. UCLA Bruins prediction: Odds, expert picks, betting trends, stats, and QB matchup

Iowa (6-3) suffered a 20-19 comeback loss to in-state rival Iowa State in Week 2, then beat @Minnesota 31-14 with a 99% win expectancy before getting throttled by @Ohio State. Since then, the Hawkeyes have won three out of four Big Ten contests with home victories over Washington, Northwestern and Wisconsin, with a loss at Michigan State tossed in. HC Kirk Ferentz is fielding another formidable defense that ranks 5th in SP+ and 10th in EPA/play. They’ve made real strides on the offensive side of the ball, specifically in the run game where potential All-American RB Kaleb Johnson has led Iowa to 6.1 yards per non-QB rush (14th in FBS) while ranking first nationally with a 13.7% explosive run rate.

UCLA (3-5) experienced a rather rude introduction to the Big Ten, losing their first four conference games against Indiana, Oregon, @ Penn State and Minnesota. However, HC DeShaun Foster and his staff have managed to turn around their fortunes over the last two games, defeating @Rutgers 35-32 and @Nebraska 27-20. Now riding a two-game win streak, UCLA welcomes a strong Iowa team that has won their last two contests against Wisconsin and Northwestern by a combined score of 82-24. The Bruins are struggling to move the ball on the ground, ranking 2nd to last in FBS with a 30% rushing success rate and 3rd-to-last in yards before contact. Defensively they’ve been exceptional in containing offenses, ranking 8th in marginal explosiveness and 30th with a 5.3% 20+ play rate. However, they rank 124th with a 49% success rate allowed and 123rd in points per scoring opportunity.

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Game details and how to watch 2024 Iowa @ UCLA

· Date: Friday, November 8, 2024
· Time: 9:00 PM EST
· Site: The Rose Bowl
· City: Pasadena, CA
· TV/Streaming: FOX

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Game odds for Iowa @ UCLA

The latest odds as of Monday courtesy of BetMGM:

We got a Sunday opening line of Iowa -5.5 but that spiked to -6.5 late in the evening. Iowa’s moneyline is available anywhere from -205 to -250 at the moment, with UCLA toggling between +168 and +195 on BetMGM. The total is holding steady at 45.5 in early trading.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) expects points in this game:
“Believe it or not Iowa has been an Over factory this season, going 8-1 to the Over while scoring 40+ points in three of their last four contests. On the other side UCLA has scored 35 and 27 points in their last two games, both of which cleared this game’s 45.5 point game total. I’m following the trends and backing the OVER 45.5 points.”

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.

BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

Line movement (Last Week to Now)

• Ohio State +450 to +350

• Miami +1800 to +1100

• Indiana +5000 to +3500

Highest Ticket%

• Ohio State 14.2%

• Texas 11.6%

• Georgia 10.9%

Highest Handle%

• Ohio State 18.5%

• Georgia 16.9%

• Texas 11.5%

Biggest Liabilities

• Ohio State

• Tennessee

• Colorado

Quarterback matchup for Iowa @ UCLA

• Iowa: Michigan transfer QB Cade McNamara won the starting job out of fall camp, completing 60% of his passes with a 5.9 yards per attempt average that ranks 139th out of 157 qualifying FBS signal callers. He is injured and will give way to Brendan Sullivan, who had been the short-yardage substitute quarterback before starting last week and completing 7-of-10 passes for 93 yards, as the Hawkeyes ran the ball 53 times for 330 yards against an overmatched Badgers front. A Northwestern transfer who portaled into Des Moines, IA this offseason, Sullivan earned a 57th% PFF passing grade last year but has lifted that to a respectable 66.8 passing grade thus far.

• UCLA: Ethan Garbers entered 2023 as the backup for promising five-star freshman recruit Dante Moore. However, when Moore faltered in his shot at the starting gig, Garbers dutifully stepped in and completed 67% of his passes with an 11-to-3 ratio and a commendable 77.7 PFF offensive grade for the 8-5 Bruins. He won the job outright this year but hasn’t had the same success, as is evidenced by his 6-to-10 big time throw-to-turnover worthy play rate and 87.1 NFL passer rating (107.0 NFL PR in 2023). That being said, Garbers is coming off his two best games of the year, having completed 49-of-63 passes with a perfect 6-to-0 ratio in UCLA’s two road victories.

Betting trends & recent stats

• Iowa leads all Power Four programs with just 2 red zone rushing touchdowns allowed in 27 attempts. Their 13.5 RZ carries-to-touchdown ratio narrowly edges out 2nd-place Penn State and their 13-to-1 ratio.

• The Hawkeyes rank last among P4 teams in wide receiver receptions per game with 5.2. Michigan ranks a close 2nd with 5.4 WR receptions a game.

• UCLA has dropped opposing ball carriers for a loss on 21% of their red zone carries, 14th-best among Power Four programs. Ole Miss leads the P4 with a 34% RZ TFL rate.

• UCLA is allowing 24 pass completions per game, which ranks 67 out of 68 Power Four defenses. Only Wake Forest has allowed more completions (26.6 per game).

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