Keys to a fantasy football victory in Week 15

Dominate in Week 15 with Sal Vetri’s keys to a fantasy football victory.

Pick-up-and-play: Isaiah Davis vs. JAX

The Jets fifth-round rookie earned a surprisingly large role in Week 14 with Breece Hall out. The expectation was that Braelon Allen would lead the Jets backfield and Davis would operate as the clear RB2, but this wasn’t the case. In Week 14, Allen played 56% of the snaps and earned 16 opportunities while Davis played 52% of the snaps and also earned 16 opportunities. Both backs were efficient, but Davis was the one to find the end zone and finish with a better fantasy day. He turned 13 touches into 67 yards and a score.

If you aren’t familiar with Davis, he was one of the most productive backs in college football the past two seasons. Over his final two years at South Dakota State, he totaled 3,056 rushing yards which was the most of any Division I back. When you include his receiving production, Davis averaged 1,714 total yards his final two seasons at South Dakota State.

Hall is at risk of missing more time due to an MCL injury. This opens the door for both Allen and Davis once again in Week 15. They draw a strong matchup against the Jaguars. It’s one of the few times this season the Jets enter a game as favorites. Jacksonville allows the ninth-most rushing yards per game and just gave up 124 total yards to Tony Pollard last week. Assuming Hall is out, you can FLEX Davis in Week 15.

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Sketchy spot of the week: Tyrone Tracy Jr. vs. BAL

Tracy Jr. had a strong Week 14 showing against Saints. It was a good matchup as New Orleans ranked 32nd against the run entering Week 14. Tracy took advantage of this great spot by turning 26 opportunities into 83 yards and a touchdown. Tracy played 84% of the snaps, his most in a game with Devin Singletary active this season, and he handled 26 of 28 backfield opportunities. All of this is awesome to see. The concerns around Tracy’s role from a few weeks back seem to be long gone.

But his matchup this week is a major concern.

The Giants are massive 15-point underdogs this week against the Ravens. Baltimore allows just 3.5 rushing yards per play, the fewest in the league. This is as sketchy as a spot gets for an opposing RB. The Giants are projected to score just 14 points this week which is one of the lowest marks for a team this season. The touchdown upside is surely lower for Tracy in this matchup, and he’ll likely have to rely on his passing-game role to be worthwhile this week. If you have a better option, consider starting them over Tracy.

Best RB spot of the week: Brian Robinson Jr. @ NO

Robinson finds himself in an incredible spot this week. He returns from his bye week and gets to face the Saints. The bye week came at a perfect time as Robinson has spent the past few months battling knee and hamstring injuries. But he appeared to be healthier in Week 13 before the bye when he took his first carry of the game for an explosive 40-yard touchdown. Robinson finished this game with 109 total yards and a score on 17 touches. The most impressive part is he did this in basically three quarters of play as the Commanders blew out the Titans and pulled some starters, which included Robinson, in the fourth quarter.

Robinson now enters the best spot on the week against the Saints 32nd-ranked run defense. We discussed earlier how Tyrone Tracy Jr. had a successful day against New Orleans last week and that was while running behind the Giants’ bottom-10 offensive line. The Commanders are seven-point favorites against the Saints this week. In six completed games as a favorite this season, Robinson averages 14.7 fantasy points on 16 touches per game. Robinson is a must-start in Week 15 fantasy matchups.

Must-start of the week: Rico Dowdle @ CAR

Dowdle continued his stretch of career-best performances this past week. It started in Week 13 against the Giants when Dowdle topped 100 rushing yards for the first time in his career and earned a career-high 25 touches and 123 total yards. This production led to Dowdle finishing as a top 10 weekly RB for the third time this season. But in Week 14, the production improved even more. Dowdle produced a new career-high with 141 total yards on 19 touches. His 7.4 yards per touch was also the best of his career.

Dowdle has taken advantage of strong matchups the past few weeks and he gets another one this week. The Cowboys will go on the road to face the Panthers. This game has just a one-point spread so expect it to remain close. This benefits Dowdle, who should see carries in all four quarters if the game script remains neutral or positive for Dallas. Carolina allows the most rushing yards per game and second-most rushing touchdowns this season. Dowdle is a must-start this week.

Sleeper of the week: Sean Tucker @ LAC

Bucky Irving re-injured his back last week and didn’t return for the second half. This led to Rachaad White and Tucker splitting the backfield touches. If you just look at the results you would see that White earned 73% of the second-half carries. This would lead you to believe White is the clear workhorse if Irving was to miss Week 15. But we need to take a closer look at what actually happened in the second half last week.

The Bucs only had four second-half drives in Week 14. Through the first three drives White had earned 39 yards on five opportunities while Tucker earned 47 yards on four opportunities. This includes a 34-yard run for Tucker where he was tackled at the three-yard line and replaced for a breather by White who ended up scoring a touchdown on the next play.

Then, on the final drive of the game, White earned three carries for seven yards to separate himself in the final box score from Tucker. But this was a near-split backfield before that final drive where Tucker was the more explosive back. Irving hasn’t practiced to start the week. If he ends up missing Tucker becomes a sleeper option for Week 15. The last time we got an extended run out of Tucker was in Week 6 when he totaled 192 yards and two touchdowns.

Stash this D/ST: Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are coming out of their bye week and playing better on defense as of late. For starters, they’ve gotten healthier since the first month of the season when they were getting run on by any team they faced. Despite this improvement, Indy’s defense is still available in over 80% of Yahoo leagues and that’s crazy to me when you look at their fantasy playoff schedule.

This week they take on the Broncos. Bo Nix has been great this season but he’s not in the tier of QBs where you fear him putting up three or more touchdowns any given week. Last time we saw Nix, he threw two INTs against the Browns and completed just 51% of his passes.

In Week 16, the Colts will face the Titans who allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing fantasy defenses. Will Levis has been better lately but he’s still turning the ball over at a high rate. Levis is also a bit banged up which could lead to a Mason Rudolph start in future weeks.

Then, in Week 17, the fantasy championships, the Colts get to face the Giants. New York allows the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing fantasy defenses and Tommy DeVito takes sacks at an unusually high rate. Grab the Colts defense if they are still available in your league.

Bounce-back of the week: Isiah Pacheco @ CLE

Pacheco only produced 7.1 fantasy points last week in his second game back from injury. This was a disappointing performance for those who were relying on Pacheco on Sunday Night as a last-ditch effort to try and make their fantasy playoffs. But for those who survived this subpar showing, there is some good news.

Pacheco’s underlying usage was encouraging in Week 14. His snaps increased from 33% to 48% but more importantly, he earned 70% of the backfield carries compared to just 50% the previous week. This led to 16 touches for Pacheco compared to just six for Kareem Hunt. It appears Pacheco is back to being the Chiefs’ workhorse back and his usage is trending in the right direction.

This week he’ll take on a shaky Browns run defense. Cleveland allows the 10th-most rushing yards per game and fourth-most rushing touchdowns this season. The Chiefs are four-point favorites this week and projected to score 24 points. In seven similar spots in his career as the starter, Pacheco averages 13.4 fantasy points per game on 18.3 touches per game according to RotoViz game splits tool. You can start Pacheco this week in the first round of your fantasy playoffs.