Keys to a fantasy football victory in Week 17

Dominate in Week 17 with Sal Vetri’s keys to a fantasy football victory.

The pick-up-and-play defense: Indianapolis Colts @ NYG

Indianapolis is shaping up to be a league-winning fantasy defense. We discussed them a few weeks back as a stash option for the fantasy playoffs due to their strong postseason schedule. In Week 15, they took on the Broncos and forced three interceptions against Bo Nix which resulted in a double-digit fantasy performance. This was the third time in their previous four games that the Colts defense put up at least 10 fantasy points. Then in Week 16, the matchups got even better against Mason Rudolph and the Titans who allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses this season.

Believe it or not, the Colts Week 17 matchup is even more appealing. Indy will face the Giants who have been rotating QBs due to injuries the past few weeks. But no matter who has been behind center for New York, it hasn’t looked pretty. The Giants have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and when you pair that with poor quarterback play it often leads to big days for opposing fantasy defenses. The Colts defense now ranks top-10 overall according to PFF and they’ll get to face the Giants’ 29th-ranked offense. It’s one of the biggest mismatches on the week and it’s making the Colts a must-start option for fantasy championship week. If they’re still available in your league, pick them up before your opponent does.

Sketchy spot of the week: Rico Dowdle @ PHI

Dowdle has been one of the biggest fantasy bright spots the past few months. Since Dowdle returned from an illness in Week 9, he’s earned 65% of the Cowboys snaps and over 19 opportunities per game. During this stretch, he’s produced five top-20 finishes at the position across eight games and he’s earned more points per game than Kenneth Walker III and Aaron Jones during this time. Dowdle was efficient last year, which led to the Cowboys trusting him enough this season to efficiently become their workhorse back and he’s rewarded Dallas with even more efficient play in 2024. Dowdle is currently averaging over five yards per touch and over the past month he’s averaged just under six yards per touch.

Dowdle has been an automatic start the past few weeks due to his strong play and even stronger matchups. He’s faced the Giants, Bengals, Panthers and Bucs the past month, one of the friendliest RB schedules you will find. But now Dowdle is faced with his first difficult spot in nearly two months. He’ll take on the Eagles as an 11-point road underdog. Philadelphia allows the seventh fewest rushing yards per game and second-fewest rushing touchdowns this season. Dowdle may have to rely more on his passing-game role to be productive in this one.

He’s been great of late but it’s a sketchy spot this week. If you have a viable replacement, you should consider playing them over Dowdle in Week 17.

Best spot of the week: Bucky Irving vs. CAR

Irving has been a joy to watch and roster in fantasy this season. The Bucs rookie started the season as a clear backup to Rachaad White, but it only took one game for everyone to realize Irving was special. In his NFL debut, he produced 76 yards on just nine touches (8.4 yards per touch). This elite efficiency would only continue throughout the entire season because Irving enters Week 17 averaging six yards per touch. He’s one of only five running backs currently hitting this mark and Irving also ranks top 10 in breakaway runs and broken tackle rate according to Player Profiler. The Bucs rookie has topped 90 total yards in four of his last five games and now he gets the perfect matchup for fantasy championship week.

Irving will take on the Panthers in Week 17. He faced Carolina earlier this season and produced a season-high 185 total yards and a touchdown against them back in Week 13. In this game, Irving broke four tackles and had four different runs go for at least 10 yards. It was his best showing of the season and it led to him finishing as the RB1 overall on the week. Running backs have found success against the Panthers all season. Carolina currently allows the most rushing yards per game and over the past seven weeks starting RBs have averaged over 120 yards per game against them.

Congratulations if you have Irving and you’re in your fantasy championship this week — you officially have the best matchup of the week on your roster.

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Must-start of the week: Deebo Samuel Sr. vs. DET

Heading into Week 16, Samuel had failed to top four fantasy points in five straight games. But he finally broke out of his slump last week with seven catches for 96 yards and a touchdown. It was his first top-10 finish at the position since Week 6 and only the third time he’s finished as a weekly WR1 this season. Samuel has had a frustrating season filled with drops and ailments. He’s battled injuries to his calf, wrist, ribs, oblique and even had to recover from pneumonia. Perhaps Week 16 was the start of what a healthy Samuel can do to end the year.

In Week 17, Samuel takes on the Lions as a home underdog. This game has the highest projected point total on the week at 50.5 points. This is historically a great spot to target in fantasy; offenses that are home underdogs in high total games. Detroit comes into this game battling many injuries on defense. Over their past two weeks, the Lions have allowed 348 passing yards per game to opposing offenses. Samuel is a top 20 receiver this week and he should be in your championship lineups this week.

Sleeper of the week: Kimani Vidal @ NE

Vidal hasn’t had many opportunities to earn a significant role in the Chargers offense this season. To begin 2024, he was often a healthy scratch or, at best, the RB3 behind J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. It wasn’t until Week 6 when Vidal saw his first offensive touch and, in this game, he turned six touches into 51 yards and a score. But despite the strong start to his NFL career, Vidal wouldn’t top 35 total yards in any of his next seven games. But this lack of production may change this week as Edwards has been ruled out with an ankle injury and Dobbins is questionable with a knee injury. Dobbins was able to practice in full on Friday, but even if he suits up there’s a chance, he’s limited in his first game back from IR.

This opens the door for Vidal to see a larger role in Week 17. Vidal is a sixth-round rookie out of Troy who is known for his college production and strong pass protection skills. Last year at Troy, he rushed for 1,661 yards which led all of college football. Vidal would add 201 yards in the air to finish with a whopping 1,882 total yards in 2023, or 134 total yards per game.

On his limited sample on the NFL, Vidal is averaging 4.5 yards per touch, and he has the size at 213 pounds to earn red-zone touches. This week, he finds himself in a favorable matchup because the Chargers are four-point favorites against the Patriots. According to PFF, New England ranks 25th against the run this season and they’ve allowed 120+ total yards and a score to RBs in back-to-back games. Vidal is a top-25 option this week if Dobbins is out, but if Dobbins plays you can still FLEX Vidal.

Bounce-back of the week: Courtland Sutton @ CIN

Sutton failed to top 10 fantasy points in Week 16 for the first time in eight weeks. He caught five balls for 50 yards against the Chargers last week. This snapped a streak of Sutton topping 70 yards or scoring a touchdown in seven straight games. His performance wasn’t bad enough to cost you your Week 16 matchup, but it surely wasn’t enough to help you win. However, you may be rewarded in a major way this week if you were able to survive his average showing in Week 16.

The Broncos will face the Bengals this week. Both teams are still fighting to secure a playoff spot so expect two fully motivated teams in this matchup. Targeting the Bengals defense has been a fantasy goldmine all season long for both running backs and wide receivers. Cincinnati allows 362 yards per game to opposing offenses this season, which is the fifth-highest yardage total in the league. As for the passing game specifically, the Bengals allow the seventh-most passing yards per game and the sixth-most passing touchdowns this season. It’s a strong spot for Sutton to bounce back against this bottom-10 secondary. In seven similar matchups against bottom-10 secondaries this season, Sutton averages 15 fantasy points on eight targets per game. Sutton is a must-start this week.

Bonus if you’re still playing in Week 18: Stash Diontae Johnson

For those of you who have meaningful fantasy matchups in Week 18, you should consider adding Johnson who is available in over 60% of Yahoo leagues right now.

A lot happened over the past week. Johnson was cut by the Ravens and signed by the Texans. Houston lost Tank Dell to a serious knee injury in Week 16, and this left it with a major gap in wide receiver production behind Nico Collins. That’s where Johnson comes in. It seems like forever ago that he was a top-15 fantasy receiver earlier this season with the Panthers. Over the first six weeks of the year, Johnson produced three top-12 finishes at the position and earned at least six targets in each of these six games. But then he was traded to the Ravens and only earned one catch for six yards across four starts with Baltimore.

Clearly, something went wrong with the Ravens that doesn’t have to do with Johnson’s on-field play. But now he’s in a new home and profiles out to be the potential No. 2 option for CJ Stroud in Week 18. Houston will face the Titans next week and Tennessee has one of the worst pass defenses in the league over the past two months. Houston can still secure the three seed in the AFC for the NFL playoffs so they should be playing their starters. If so, Johnson is worth an add in deeper leagues, especially if you need to replace Tank Dell.