Keys to a fantasy football victory in Week 9

Best spot of the week: Brian Robinson Jr.

Robinson Jr. has been great for fantasy managers this season. He’s scored 10+ fantasy points in six of seven games this year and has even played through injuries in multiple games. He’s proven to be someone you can rely on, and his role has been great this year. Robinson is averaging over 16 opportunities per game and ranks top 10 in red-zone touches this year. The role is strong and so is his efficiency. Robinson currently ranks eighth in EPA among all RBs, and he continues to break tackles at an above-average rate.

This week, Robinson takes on a division rival in the Giants. New York allows the most rushing yards per play this season and is coming off a week where they allowed 131 total yards to Najee Harris. Start Robinson with confidence this week.

Sketchy spot of the week: J.K. Dobbins

Dobbins has failed to top 60 rushing yards in four of his last five games. He’s struggled to break tackles and create explosive plays since his first two games of the season. One of those games was against the Panthers, who we now know are one of the worst run defenses in the leagues. Dobbins now ranks 52nd in broken-tackle rate and just 33rd in yards per touch according to Player Profiler.

The recent run of poor play may only get worse this week. Dobbins will face the Browns on the road. Cleveland has the No. 1-ranked run defense in the NFL according to PFF. It’s a sketchy spot for Dobbins, who looks like a touchdown-or-bust candidate for Week 9.

If you have another option, I’d consider starting them.

Pickup-and-play of the week: Elijah Moore vs. LAC

All the attention in the Browns’ WR room is on Cedric Tillman and for good reason. Tillman has posted 15 catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns the past two weeks without Amari Cooper. The hype is warranted, but this hype is allowing Elijah Moore’s Week 8 usage to fly under the radar.

In Week 8, Moore earned a team-high 30% target share and turned this into a solid day of eight catches for 85 yards. Moore is a talented receiver who has shown pockets of success in his career when paired with capable quarterback play. We saw that in Week 8 as Jameis Winston completed 66% of his passes for 334 yards and three touchdowns. Jameis leaned on Moore often when it came to third down and under-pressure situations. This is a good indicator that Jameis trusts Moore. You can pick up and play Moore this week against the Chargers, who allowed 107 yards to Chris Olave last week.

Trending up: WR Josh Downs

Downs has been the Colts’ best receiver this season. He leads the team with a 26% target share and has finished as a top-20 receiver in four of his six starts. Downs is trending up because the Colts made the move to sit QB Anthony Richardson and start veteran Joe Flacco. This is an instant upgrade to the entire passing attack as Richardson was completing a league-low 50% of his passes and only 25% of his deep attempts.

In three starts with Joe Flacco, Downs has averaged 10 targets per game and an average fantasy finish of WR13. This means Downs has been a borderline WR1 for fantasy with Flacco as his QB. Downs takes on the Vikings this week, who have struggled on defense the past two games. Minnesota allowed 280 yards and two touchdowns to Jared Goff in Week 7, as he completed 88% of his passes. In Week 8, the Vikings gave up 279 yards and four touchdowns to Matthew Stafford. Start Downs with confidence this week.

Trending down: WR Zay Flowers

Flowers is coming off a strong bounce-back performance. In Week 8, he produced 115 yards on seven receptions. Flowers earned a season-high 36% target share in this game, and he’s now seen a team-high 27% of the Ravens targets this season. All of this is great news as Flowers continues to break out in his second year. But on Tuesday, Flowers’ fantasy stock took a major hit.

The Ravens traded for Diontae Johnson. Johnson is an elite target earner who knows how to separate and get open. He’s earned a 26% target share since entering the NFL for a total of 697 career targets. This ranks sixth in the NFL since 2019 according to Statmuse. Johnson will replace Nelson Agholor in the Ravens offense. Agholor has only earned 10% of the team’s targets this season. The addition of Johnson will likely drive down Flowers’ target share, which reduces his weekly fantasy value. Flowers is trending down despite his strong start to the season.

Sell high of the week: Tucker Kraft

Kraft has been a pleasant surprise in fantasy football this season. He was a relative unknown entering 2024. Kraft had an offseason surgery and seemed to be behind TE Luke Musgrave on the depth chart. But it was evident from Week 1 that Kraft was the guy in this TE room, when he played 96% of the Packers’ snaps. He currently ranks seventh in TE points per game this season, but his production is not sustainable. Kraft has a 20% touchdown rate this season. This means 20% of his receptions have gone for touchdowns which is about four times more than the NFL average.

Over the past three games, the Packers have had all their WRs back from injury and/or suspension. During this time, Kraft has earned only 11% of the team’s targets which ranks sixth behind RB Josh Jacobs and WR4 Dontayvion Wicks. His role isn’t good right now and it’s been propped up by touchdowns. According to Player Profiler, Kraft ranks 20th in TE expected fantasy points based on his usage. This puts him in a range around Jonnu Smith and Tyler Conklin on the season. Right now is the time to sell high. Try to trade him for someone like TJ Hockenson or Bucky Irving if you can.

Buy low of the week: Mike Evans

It’s the perfect time to buy low on Mike Evans. A lot was made the past week about which Bucs receiver would fill in and replace Evans and Chris Godwin in Week 8. But sadly, the answer was none of them. Rookie Jalen McMillan led the receivers with seven targets but was only able to produce 35 scoreless yards. The Bucs relied on TE Cade Otton and their RBs in the passing game instead of the replacement WRs. There’s a good chance this continues the next few weeks.

Evans is a great buy-low right now as he recovers from a hamstring injury. He’s finished as a top-10 receiver in three of his five completed games this season. Evans has earned a solid 23% target share over those five completed games and once he returns, he’ll no longer have to compete with Chris Godwin for targets. But there’s even more good news because Evans has a great fantasy playoff schedule. He’ll face the Cowboys and Panthers; both teams rank in the top five in yards per passing play allowed this season per NFL Pro. Trade someone like J.K. Dobbins or Darnell Mooney for Evans if you can.

Must start of the week: Chase Brown

Brown has been trending up the past month in the Bengals offense. Over his last three games, he leads the Bengals backfield with a 56% snap share and he’s earned 60% of the rush attempts according to Fantasy Life. In Week 8, Brown earned a season-high 67% of the team’s carries and turned this into a 14-touch game for 34 yards and a touchdown. Brown has now scored 10+ points in four of his last five games with three top-20 finishes during this stretch.

This week Brown finds himself in a great spot. He’s a seven-point home favorite against the Raiders. This sets up nicely for Brown to earn plenty of touches in the second half. Las Vegas ranks dead last in tackling this season according to PFF. This makes them a great matchup for any running back, but it’s even better for Brown because he breaks tackles at a top-10 rate this season. Make sure Brown is in your lineup this week and consider trading for him if he’s not already on your roster.