Lionel Messi, despite missing half of the MLS season, is still the clear MVP

Lionel Messi has played 49% of Inter Miami’s 2024 MLS season, and the entire history of U.S. professional sport suggests that he should, therefore, not win MLS MVP.

No player in the history of the major leagues has ever missed nearly half a season and still been named the “Most Valuable Player.” NFL MVPs have always played at least 12 of 16 games. In baseball, non-pitchers have always played more than 100.

In basketball, Bill Walton won the NBA’s 1978 award despite missing 24 of 82 games — and, like Messi, only playing 49% of available minutes — but the NBA recently codified a rule that, if copied by Major League Soccer, would actually disqualify Messi: Players must appear in at least 65 games to be eligible for the MVP award.

And yet, with two weeks to go, Messi isn’t just a contender for the MLS award; he should be the runaway favorite.

He’s the favorite because he’s packed an entire season of MVP production into his 15 starts and two substitute appearances; but also because his mere presence has completely transformed Inter Miami from a laughingstock, and MLS’ worst team, to perhaps its best ever.

He is, literally, and obviously, by a wide margin, the league’s “most valuable player.”

The numbers

Statistically, Messi hasn’t just been the league’s best player on a per-game basis; he’s been the most prolific and productive player, period.

In his 17 games, he’s scored 17 goals and assisted 15. Those 32 goal contributions are the joint-second-most in MLS, one behind Portland’s Evander (15G, 18A), as many as FC Cincinnati’s Luciano Acosta (13G, 19A), more than Columbus Crew forward Cucho Hernández (17G, 13A) — and more than Acosta recorded last season when he ran away with the 2023 MVP award.

Denis Bouanga and Chicho Arango, two other MVP contenders, are close behind them. Both, like Acosta and Evander, and like most stars, have started 25-plus games and played more than 2,100 minutes.

Messi, on the other hand, has compiled those numbers in 1,424 minutes.

He was injured in March, then away for the Copa América in June, then injured again in July and August. And yes, his unavailability is a knock on his MVP candidacy. When he’s not on the field, he can’t be “valuable” in the traditional sense of the word — which is why MVP voters typically value raw stats, and total bodies of work, over efficiency metrics.

Messi, though, has been so absurdly good when on the field that his raw numbers still measure up to Cucho’s and Acosta’s and Evander’s. In fact, if you subtract penalties, Messi is, remarkably, at the very top of the goal-creation list (with 31 to Evander’s 30, Acosta’s 29, Cucho’s 28, Arango’s 27 and Bouanga’s 22).

And his per-90 numbers? Otherworldly. Historic.

His 1.71 non-penalty goals plus assists per 90 minutes (npG+A/90) — based on the global definition of assists, rather than the generous MLS definition — are nearly a half-goal better than any other player’s single-season rate in MLS history, per FBref.

In fact, in a few of MLS’ 28 completed seasons, Messi’s rate would’ve been more than twice as good as the league leader.

Many of his secondary metrics — successful dribbles, progressive passes, shot-creating actions — are also elite. His gravity — the defensive attention he commands, the space he creates for teammates simply by existing — is unparalleled.

The only real arguments against Messi for MVP are that he doesn’t defend, and that Miami still won without him.

The counterargument

You could craft a clever case against Messi using a separate set of numbers and logic.

Inter Miami has actually taken more points per game with Messi absent (2.13 ppg) than with Messi present (2.12).

And surely, the thinking might go, a reason for that surprising stat is Messi’s lagging work rate. His defensive contribution is essentially nothing. When opponents have the ball, it’s as if Inter is playing 10-v-11 — and suffering. Their Expected Goals Against (xGA) tally — a measure of opponent chance creation — ranks in the bottom half of MLS.

That logic, though, quickly unravels. Statistically, Miami has not been significantly better or worse defensively with Messi off the field or on it. They recalibrate to accommodate him, because his impact at the other end of the field is undeniable. With Messi on the field, in 15.8 MLS games, Miami has scored 42 goals — which, if projected out over 34 games, would break the league’s single-season record.

With Messi absent, in May, June, July and August, they strung together several 2-1 wins that were tight, and easily could’ve been draws or losses. With Messi present, on the other hand, they have been supreme and dynamic. Their goal differential in those 17 games is +20.

The oversimplified view that Inter is just as good without Messi also ignores the bigger picture. They are good without him precisely because he came to Miami in the first place.

The bigger picture

Before Messi arrived midway through the 2023 season, Inter Miami was rock bottom of the Eastern Conference. The Herons had taken 18 points (via five wins, three draws, 14 losses) from 22 games. They were dreadful in every soccer sense of the word. They were scoring only a goal per match. Their Expected Goal differential was the worst in the entire league.

Then Messi showed up.

Fifteen months later, the same Inter Miami is two wins away from breaking the MLS single-season points record.

“We were a team that habitually lost for years,” head coach Tata Martino recently said, “and now, we are a team that habitually wins.”

They’re a team that habitually wins not solely because of Messi. Sergio Busquets also showed up. Then came Jordi Alba, and later Luis Suarez. Miami also signed a half-dozen South American youngsters, and a few less-heralded veterans, who’ve helped elevate the club.

But the vast majority wouldn’t be here if Messi weren’t. Martino probably wouldn’t be the coach. Messi has also been the league’s most valuable recruiter — not because he was picking up the phone and calling midfielder Diego Gómez or defender Tomás Avilés, but because his god-like stature made Inter Miami a destination for players whom most MLS clubs couldn’t attract or afford.

So, the case for Messi? It’s comprehensive and clear.

He has created more non-penalty goals than anyone else in the league.

He has transformed a dysfunctional cellar-dweller into a Supporters’ Shield winner (the regular-season champion).

In 2024, he has been the most valuable MLS player.