Matthew Judon trade would’ve been right idea, wrong move for Bears in Year 1 with Caleb Williams

Matthew Judon trade would’ve been right idea, wrong move for Bears in Year 1 with Caleb Williams originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago

General manager Ryan Poles clearly understands the opportunity at hand and the moves needed to be made over the next few years as quarterback Caleb Williams ascends and the Chicago Bears thrust their contention window open.

With Williams on a cheap rookie contract for the next four seasons plus a fifth-year team option, Poles needs to do everything possible to surround Williams with blue-chip talent to maximize the greatest advantage a hopeful Super Bowl contender can have — a franchise quarterback on a rookie contract.

It’s why Poles signed wide receiver DJ Moore to a four-year, $110 million extension to almost match up perfectly with Williams’ rookie deal. And it’s why the Bears reportedly were among the teams who were finalists to trade for veteran edge rusher Matthew Judon, who the New England Patriots sent to the Atlanta Falcons for a third-round pick on Wednesday night.

It makes sense that the Bears would at least sniff around a trade for the 32-year-old Judon. Judon posted back-to-back double-digit sack seasons in 2021 and 2022 (12.5 and 15.5, respectively). He recorded four sacks in four games last season before suffering a season-ending biceps injury. Judon is entering the final year of his four-year contract and wanted a new deal from the Patriots before the trade. Judon is set to make a $6.5 million base salary this season and believes that doesn’t currently reflect his value as a pass rusher.

On the surface, adding a proven pass rusher like Judon opposite Montez Sweat would make a lot of sense for the Bears. Poles was unable to bolster the pass rush this offseason outside of a few fringe additions. When the Bears opened training camp, Poles said he wanted to get a full evaluation of the pass rush before deciding whether or not to add to it.

The Bears have gotten good reps from DeMarcus Walker in practice, and rookie Austin Booker has made steady progress in his early development.

But a need for a more reliable pass-rusher still exists at Halas Hall.

That’s why Poles offered the Patriots a third-round pick for Judon, a league source confirmed to NBC Sports Chicago. NBC Sports Boston’s Phil Perry was first to report the offer.

Taking a swing at Judon shows that Poles has the right mindset entering the Williams era. The Bears have seen the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Chargers waste the rookie quarterback windows of Josh Allen and Justin Herbert, leaving them a much more difficult task of building a winner around a quarterback who makes $50-plus million a year.

Poles understands the Bears’ window to contend is opening, and he doesn’t want to waste it by leaving a weakness unaddressed.

But while the thinking was correct, acquiring Judon probably wasn’t the right move.

Judon is 32 and is likely seeking a new contract that will pay him between $15 and $18 million annually. While CBS Sports’ Jonathan Jones reported that Judon plans to play this season for Atlanta without a new deal, the Falcons didn’t surrender valuable draft capital for a one-year rental. The Bears would have had to do the same.

While the Bears have Williams and rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze on affordable deals, they have invested heavily in Sweat, Moore, cornerback Jaylon Johnson, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, and tight end Cole Kmet. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is in the final year of his contract but has said he’d be open to a new deal to stay in Chicago if the Bears meet his asking price. If that number is in the $22 million range, the Bears would have only $16 million left in salary cap space for 2025 before their draft picks are signed. If they were to pay Judon something in the $15 million ballpark, they would have just over $2 million left in cap space.

It’s always important to note that there are different ways to lessen the cap hit for a season or two, but eventually, the bill comes due.

Edge rusher also isn’t the only area the Bears need to address around Williams.

The Bears’ offensive line remains a work in progress. They still need to find a long-term answer at center, determine if Braxton Jones is the future at left tackle, and decide whether or not they want to extend left guard Teven Jenkins.

Investing both draft capital and a big salary in Judon could complicate the Bears’ ability to fortify other areas around Williams and potentially hamper their ability to retain some of their young talent, who will be due an extension in the coming years.

Poles’ strong offer for Judon shows that he understands the importance of these next few seasons and can see where things are headed with Williams.

But sometimes the best moves are the ones you don’t make. The right deal will come along for the Bears over the next few seasons. Their window to truly contend should open next season, and Poles will be ready to push his chips in when the right opportunity presents itself.

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