Mets at Reds: 5 things to watch and series predictions | Sept. 6-8

Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Reds play a three-game series at Citi Field starting on Friday night…

Preview

The calm before the storm

With 22 games left in the regular season, the Mets are right there as they battle the Braves, Diamondbacks, and Padres for one of the three Wild Card spots in the National League.

And except for a three-game series against the Nationals at Citi Field in the middle of the month, the schedule will soon get very challenging for the Mets, who will end the campaign by playing 13 of their final 16 games against the Phillies, Braves, and Brewers.

Before that, they’ll have three games against the Reds at home before traveling to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays.

But the Reds, despite being under .500 and having close to no chance to reach the postseason, are not pushovers.

Cincinnati‘s positive run differential belies its record, though, and suggests that they’ve been a bit unlucky.

Their offensive attack is middle of the road in the National League, but has a true game-changer who can wreak havoc at the plate and on the bases — more on that in a bit.

The Reds’ rotation is in disarray

While Cincinnati’s offense can erupt at times, the rotation is not in great shape.

The Reds are without flamethrowing ace Hunter Greene, who is on the IL due to an elbow injury, and are also missing Andrew Abbott, who landed on the IL late last month due to a shoulder strain.

Meanwhile, mid-rotation starter Nick Martinez started Wednesday against the Astros, meaning he won’t be available to start this weekend against the Mets.

As of now, the Reds have Friday and Saturday’s starters listed as TBD, and have right-hander Julian Aguilar down as Sunday’s starter.

Aguilar has struggled in limited action this season, allowing 12 runs in 16.2 innings over four starts. He gave up six runs on 10 hits in 4.0 innings against the Athletics on Aug. 29, and lasted just 2.2 innings against the Astros on Monday while giving up two runs.

Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, and Jesse Winker are carrying the offense

The Mets’ offense has been solid during their seven-game winning streak, and they scored 19 runs during their three-game sweep of the Red Sox.

Along the way, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo have continued to ebb and flow, Starling Marte has been working his way back in, Francisco Alvarez is starting to show signs but not providing much power, and Harrison Bader has been mired in a long slump.

The above has left the hot-hitting Lindor, Vientos, and Winker to carry much of the load.

Lindor has a 33-game on-base streak, and is hitting a sizzling .336/.380/.600 with eight homers, 11 doubles, one triple, 27 runs scored, and 21 RBI during that span.

Vientos, who continues to showcase his mammoth power, is hitting .327/.359/.531 with three homers in 53 plate appearances since Aug. 21.

Winker is hitting .391/.440/.739 with two homers — including Wednesday’s grand slam — over his last seven games.

Beware of Elly De Le Cruz

De La Cruz strikes out a ton — a league-leading 179 entering play on Thursday.

But when he isn’t swinging and missing, he’s an absolute toolshed.

The 22-year-old has 22 homers, 33 doubles, eight triples, and a league-leading 62 steals.

He’s also been truly elite at shortstop.

De La Cruz is in the 98th percentile in Outs Above Average and his arm strength is in the 91st percentile.

Edwin Diaz looks confident again

Diaz has had some hiccups this season, which isn’t surprising considering he missed the entire 2023 season after a brutal knee injury that required surgery.

He lost his confidence early on, was suspended for 10 games due to sticky stuff, and recently had to bounce back from blowing games against the Padres and Diamondbacks.

But since allowing a grand slam to Corbin Carroll on Aug. 28, Diaz has been nearly perfect.

In four appearances since, he has fired four hitless innings while walking one and striking out nine.

Diaz has been extra fastball-happy lately, including a game-ending sequence against the Red Sox on Wednesday when he threw his final three pitches at 101, 101, and 100 mph.

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Jesse Winker

Winker has been on a bit of a heater lately, and it will continue against his former team.

Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?

Sean Manaea

Manaea has been electric since dropping his arm angle.

Which Reds player will be a thorn in Mets’ side?

Ty France

France entered play on Thursday with seven hits in his last eight at-bats