Milwaukee Bucks 2024-25 season preview: How far can Giannis and an aging core go?

The 2024-25 NBA season is here! We’re breaking down the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 teams. Enjoy!

MILWAUKEE BUCKS

2023-24 finish

Offseason moves

• Additions: Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince, Delon Wright, A.J. Johnson, Tyler Smith

• Subtractions: Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley, Jae Crowder, Danilo Gallinari, Thanasis Antetokounmpo

• Complete roster

The Big Question: Does depth solve Milwaukee’s woes?

Last season was a disaster. The Milwaukee Bucks hired first-time head coach Adrian Griffin, fired him a few months later and somehow finished with a much worse record under his replacement, Doc Rivers.

It was not just coaching that kept the 2021 NBA champions from winning a playoff series for the second straight season. Damian Lillard did not arrive in Milwaukee until the dawn of last season’s training camp. When he did, he was in “the worst shape I’ve ever been,” dealing with “the hardest transition of my life.” As a result, he and Giannis Antetokounmpo spent the season in search of a chemistry that never came.

Meanwhile, Lillard, Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton were all entering their mid-30s in various stages of decline, and the Bucks had no depth to support them. Things got worse when Antetokounmpo suffered a left calf strain, perhaps from carrying too great a load. It was a recipe for disaster, and they made it well.

The Bucks are pot committed to their four current and former All-Stars. The $152 million they owe to Antetokounmpo, Lillard, Middleton and Lopez left them with nothing but minimum deals to offer in free agency. Bucks GM Jon Horst did well to round out the rotation, landing Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince and Delon Wright, each of whom can contribute playoff minutes. Trent is first in line for a starting job.

Turn back the clock to 2021, then, right? Not so fast. Lillard, MIddleton and Lopez are not getting any younger. Middleton, 33, is the youngest of the trio, and he needed offseason surgery to both his ankles. He will be limited in training camp, same as last season, when he was rehabbing from knee surgery.

As for the chemistry between Antetokounmpo and Lillard, that at least has to be better … RIGHT?

Oh.

Maybe a full training camp under Rivers will be enough for Antetokounmpo and Lillard to perfect their pick-and-roll partnership and build chemistry with a revamped rotation, even if Middleton’s absence adds another wrinkle. After all, Antetokounmpo is one of the three best players in the NBA. He averaged a 30-12-7 on better than 60% shooting from the field last season. He can mask a lot of issues on any roster.

What that has meant the past two seasons is a first-round playoff exit, and that is unacceptable. Forget chemistry concerns. Why should we believe things will get better when an old team has gotten older?

It cannot be overstated how much the Bucks expected last season from Jae Crowder, Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari, none of whom is in the NBA any longer. It turns out you cannot just collect a bunch of cast-offs and form a playoff-caliber bench. This time, they targeted fit over flashy names. Trent, Prince and Wright shot a combined 39.2% on 12.4 3-point attempts per game last season.

The incoming trio also improves the team’s versatility on the defensive end, where Milwaukee rated below average last season. How much the fifth, sixth and seventh men can meaningfully improve the defensive unit remains to be seen. They should at least help the Bucks win regular-season games.

But there is no basketball world where a trio of minimum-salaried additions on its own transforms a team that failed to win a playoff series into one that can win four rounds. They can contribute to a contender, but they cannot be its catalyst. Antetokounmpo, Lillard, Middleton and Lopez must seize those reins. Only one of them is squarely in his prime, and he has not been healthy in two postseasons.

Best-case scenario

When Antetokounmpo is healthy, he is a monster, ferociously attacking the rim, and that is paramount. Nothing works without him. Lillard grows more comfortable with his existence in Milwaukee and reverts to All-NBA form. Trent, Prince and Wright inject energy and stability into the roster, allowing Middleton to take his time to return. Lopez anchors them at an All-Defensive level. And still we are unsure if they can beat the Boston Celtics, New York Knicks or Philadelphia 76ers; but they have a shot at any of them.

If everything falls apart

If Antetokounmpo cannot get a handle on the increased injuries to his left leg, Milwaukee is toast. Let us set that aside for a moment. The Bucks’ title chances are in trouble if Lillard’s All-NBA days are behind him, if Middleton’s All-Star days are behind him or if Lopez’s All-Defensive days are behind him. If one of those things is true, it will be difficult to convince anyone that this version of the Bucks can contend at any point in the future. And if that is the case, does Antetokounmpo question his future in Milwaukee?

Fantasy spin

Giannis Antetkounmpo comes with warts in category formats, but he’s a top-4 option for points leagues. Damian Lillard finished outside the top 24 for the first time in a decade, so expect him to bounce back after an entire offseason to train, rest and recover without external distractions.

Brook Lopez’s age is catching up with him, so he’s an easy fade for me at his current ADP. One player to watch for in the later rounds is Bobby Portis Jr. Portis’ usage rate eclipsed 25% under Doc Rivers and he ranked 79th in per-game value over the season’s final three months. — Dan Titus

2024-25 schedule

Too many things have to go right. Take the under.