Minnesota Twins 2024 offseason preview: What’s next for the Twins after falling out of the postseason picture?

2024 season: Eliminated on Sept. 27, 4th in AL Central

Let’s take a look at the season that was for the 2024 Minnesota Twins, the questions the team must address this winter and the early outlook for 2025.

Read more: 2024 MLB offseason previews: What’s next for the White Sox, A’s, Cubs and more?

Things that went right

The Twins stayed in the postseason race until the final weekend of the season through a team effort. This was a club that posted a winning record despite having no position player log an .800 OPS over at least 110 games and no pitcher record a sub-3.50 ERA over more than 100 innings. Rather, there were several Twins who provided useful contributions.

No one on the Twins’ roster will finish the season with more than 25 homers, 75 RBI or 20 stolen bases, but Matt Wallner, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have been the top offensive contributors and should each finish with an OPS in the upper .800s or low .900s. Four more Twins — Jose Miranda, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers and Carlos Santana — will finish with an OPS in the mid-.700s while playing in more than 110 games.

Meanwhile, the pitching staff was anchored by Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson, who all logged a sub-4.20 ERA across at least 130 innings. Also, Griffin Jax emerged as the team’s most reliable reliever, producing impressive ratios while ranking second on the club in saves and leading the team in appearances and holds.

Things that went wrong

Minnesota stayed in the postseason race primarily because its letdowns were all relatively minor. Royce Lewis continued a pattern of struggling to stay healthy, as he was able to play in roughly half of the team’s games. The 25-year-old was a solid offensive player but not quite as effective as he was in 58 games the previous year (.921 OPS). Edouard Julien was a bigger disappointment. After producing an .839 OPS across 109 games in 2023, Julien struggled offensively to the point that he spent roughly two months of the summer in the minors.

Minnesota is far from the only team that struggled to find a fifth starter, but that was certainly an area of disappointment this year. Louie Varland and Chris Paddack both endured disappointing seasons after opening 2024 in the rotation. Youngsters David Festa and Zebby Matthews gave their best effort to make a late-season impact but didn’t have much success. The lack of rotation depth was especially notable when the team was without Ryan down the stretch.

Overall, though, everything was going pretty well in Minnesota until the final weeks of the season. On Sept. 5, the Twins were sitting at 74-62 with a 95.4% chance of qualifying for the postseason, per FanGraphs. Then the Twins were swept in a pivotal series with the Royals, which kicked off a stretch in which Minnesota went 6-14 from Sept. 6 to Sept. 27. The Twins won just one of six series during that span and fell to 82-78 with their loss to the Orioles on Sept. 27, which eliminated them from the postseason. During that dismal stretch, Lewis, Miranda, Jeffers and Julien all posted an OPS under .500, and Lopez, Festa and Woods Richardson each logged an ERA over 4.50 while making at least three starts.

Offseason plans

Most of the Twins’ roster remains under team control for 2025 and beyond, but the infield might be the least settled part of the team. Jeffers is locked in behind the plate, Correa will play shortstop, and Lewis can man the hot corner. Julien and former top prospect Brooks Lee are options to play second base, and Lee could also be a fine utilityman. First base is the one vacant spot, with Santana heading to free agency as a 38-year-old. Alex Kirilloff is a possible replacement, but he has dealt with injuries throughout his career and posted a lowly .653 OPS in 57 games this year.

The outfield is anchored by Buxton in center and has terrific options against right-handed pitchers in Wallner and Larnach. Manuel Margot fits well as a right-handed hitter who can start against lefties, but he is unlikely to have his $12 million option for 2025 picked up. The team will likely lose Max Kepler to free agency, but he isn’t a great fit as another left-handed hitter alongside Wallner and Larnach. There are also elite outfield prospects on the way (more on that later).

The rotation is in good shape, as the Big Four of López, Ober, Ryan and Woods Richardson are all set to return. Festa, Matthews and Varland can compete for the last spot. The team’s key relievers — Jax, Jhoan Duran, Cole Sands and Jorge Alcala — will also all return. The primary lefty in the relief corps, Caleb Thielbar, is heading to free agency and will need to be replaced.

Minnesota could use a superstar in the middle of its lineup, but those players are pricey and risky on the free-agent market. For example, Pete Alonso would be a splashy signing at first base but might not fit a plan for steady, sustainable success. Still, the Twins added Correa to a massive, $200 million free-agent contract two years ago and might be willing to make another bold move.

Prospects on the horizon

Minnesota’s farm system enjoyed a major leap this season and ranked second in baseball by August, according to MLB Pipeline.

Emmanuel Rodriguez could be the member of the bunch who best combines elite talent and MLB readiness. The 21-year-old rose through four minor-league levels this year, finishing the campaign at Triple-A and showing incredible plate discipline along the way. He profiles as a true five-tool player who could join the Twins’ outfield early in 2025.

The organization has two more elite position-player prospects who could reach the majors late in 2025. Walker Jenkins, the fifth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, is 19 years old and has already reached Double-A. He is considered by some publications to be a top-five prospect in baseball and will eventually patrol Minnesota’s outfield alongside Rodriguez. Luke Keaschall is another Minnesota prospect who has an exciting blend of power, speed and on-base skills. He primarily played second base in college but has also gained experience at first base and center in the minors.

The ceilings aren’t as high for the Twins’ pitching prospects, but there are two starters in the minors who should contribute next season. Andrew Morris enjoyed a terrific 2024 (2.37 ERA, 133:32 K:BB ratio) during which he rose all the way to Triple-A. He should debut with the Twins early in 2025. Marco Raya has an equally high ceiling but was less consistent this year and will likely spend the first half of 2025 working on his control in the minors.

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Goals for 2025

The Twins are certainly not a dynasty, but they had a solid run of success, with four postseason appearances in the past eight seasons. Still, the failure of this year’s team to earn key victories in September or return to October, particularly after being well positioned to do so, will be talking points throughout the offseason.

The organization could make minimal changes this winter and still have a decent chance of winning the AL Central in 2025. But unless they make at least one notable move, the Twins will likely continue to lag behind the American League powerhouses. The front office will need to decide if being good is good enough, as opposed to truly taking a run at reaching the World Series.

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Fantasy focus

Fantasy managers will initially target the Twins’ starting pitchers on draft day. Ryan, Ober and López will all be coveted as No. 2 mixed-league starters, with Ryan and López having the potential to be viewed by some managers as fantasy aces. Assuming he remains in the closer’s role, Duran will also be a valuable player in 2025 drafts.

Minnesota’s best hitters profile as mid-round picks, including Correa, Wallner and Buxton. Lewis is the one Twins position player who could vault into the early rounds, as managers dream about his potential to stay healthy and post game-changing numbers across a full season.