NFL offseason power rankings: No. 5 Dallas Cowboys are being downgraded again

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One comment from Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones changed the entire perception of his team’s offseason and expectations for the season too.

He said in January, not long after Dallas’ season came to a crashing halt in the playoffs, his Cowboys “will be all-in” during the offseason. He said it repeatedly. Then they weren’t. In reality, it was just Jerry being Jerry. He likes microphones and says odd things at times. He was never going to spend wildly this offseason, not with the team having to figure out contracts for quarterback Dak Prescott, receiver CeeDee Lamb and pass rusher Micah Parsons.

But he said it, and it set an unrealistic expectation that wasn’t met. Really, it served as an excuse for Cowboys doomsayers to freak out again.

The Cowboys have been one of the NFL’s best teams the past few seasons but you’d never know it. Every playoff loss leads to months of Cowboys fans trying to fire or trade everyone. An offseason of inaction wasn’t great, but it also didn’t tear apart a roster that is a fantastic 36-15 the past three seasons. Dallas is treated like a team coming off three straight 5-12 seasons, not a trio of 12-5 seasons. The annual freakout was a focus of last offseason, this offseason and will be the theme of next offseason if Dallas doesn’t make a deep playoff run.

In fairness, the way the Cowboys’ season ended was disheartening. They were defeated 48-32 by the Green Bay Packers on wild-card weekend and it was worse than the final score. Dallas trailed 27-0 in the second quarter. By halftime everyone was already discussing if Mike McCarthy would get fired. He didn’t, but it’s not like there’s more faith in him leading a Super Bowl run. This core is a great 73-41 in Prescott’s career regular-season starts and just 2-5 in his playoff starts. Dallas seems like a great regular season team that won’t get over the hump in the playoffs.

But that door hasn’t closed. Prescott played so well he was in the MVP conversation until the very end of the season. Lamb led the NFL with 135 catches and had 1,735 yards. The running back situation isn’t great, but there’s a reason running backs have been devalued in the NFL. Dallas is a pass-first team anyway. The defense has been stellar the past few seasons and even with coordinator Dan Quinn moving on to be head coach of the Washington Commanders, it should still be one of the NFL’s best groups. It’s hard to win 12 games in the NFL. The Cowboys have done that three seasons in a row. It’s not due to luck.

It wasn’t the offseason Cowboys fans dreamed of when Jones got their hopes up. But the core of a 12-win roster stayed mostly the same. The Cowboys should be pretty good again this regular season. Then we’ll see if the Cowboys can do better in the postseason. If not, we already know what the reaction will be.

Offseason grade

Even if we forget about Jerry Jones’ “all-in” comments and how that affected the perception of the Cowboys’ offseason, it wasn’t great. The biggest losses were defensive lineman Dorace Armstrong, center Tyler Biadasz, running back Tony Pollard and offensive tackle Tyron Smith. That’s not insignificant, though none of them are blue-chip players (Smith might be, but he has durability concerns and is 33 years old). The problem is the Cowboys did almost nothing to replace those players. Bringing back Ezekiel Elliott at running back doesn’t fix much, even if Pollard wasn’t great as a featured back last season. The Cowboys didn’t have an exciting draft. They tried to beef up the line with offensive tackle Tyler Guyton in the first round and center Cooper Beebe in the third. Guyton was expected to be a developmental player but the Cowboys probably need him to play right away. Overall it’s hard to say the Cowboys’ roster is better, though the losses might be a bit overrated.

Grade: D

Quarterback report

If you listen to most of the chatter about Dak Prescott, you’d think he was one of the 10 worst quarterbacks in the NFL. Backups included. Prescott has become the new Kirk Cousins, ripped incessantly by some no matter how well he plays. Prescott was fantastic last season. He threw for 4,516 yards and a league-best 36 touchdowns with just nine interceptions. He had the third-best Pro Football Focus passing grade last season. He was third in EPA/play (expected points added) among quarterbacks behind only Brock Purdy and Josh Allen. He was named the most valuable player in the NFL last season by Seth Walder of ESPN Analytics.

Prescott might have won the actual NFL MVP award if not for two December losses by the Cowboys. And he would have deserved it.

The chatter this season will be about Prescott’s contract. If the Cowboys can’t get an extension done with Prescott, he can be a free agent in 2025. No matter who signs Prescott to his next contract, he could blow away the current record of $55 million per season. He has leverage and has been better than Trevor Lawrence, one of the co-holders of that contract record (Joe Burrow is the other member of the $55 million per season club). The Cowboys always attract attention, so you’re about to hear a lot about Prescott’s contract situation over this season.

BetMGM odds breakdown

The Cowboys’ win total at BetMGM opened at 10.5. That has inched closer to 9.5 as the offseason has gone on. Over 9.5 is -165 odds (bet $165 to win $100) and the under on 10.5 is -175, putting it roughly in the middle. The most bet under among all NFL teams at BetMGM is the Cowboys. Dallas has gone 12-5 each of the past three seasons and now most of the betting public doesn’t think it can reach 11 wins. The Cowboys have slipped to 10th in the Super Bowl odds at +1800. They’re behind teams like the Packers and Texans. The Eagles, who finished last season losing six of their last seven games and almost fired their coach, are ahead of Dallas in the NFC East odds. The Eagles are a heavy -120 to win the division while the Cowboys are +150. To repeat, Jerry Jones’ “all in” comment and subsequent inaction has led to an abundance of negativity surrounding the Cowboys’ prospects this season.

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Jake Ferguson had a breakout year in 2023, leading the tight end position in red-zone targets and charting as the TE8 through Week 17. But maybe there’s room for improvement — despite Ferguson’s exposure around the goal, he scored a modest five touchdowns. Some of that positive regression kicked in during the playoffs, when Ferguson spiked three times (part of a 10-catch afternoon) against the Packers.

“The Cowboys didn’t improve their receiver room, so Ferguson’s target share looks secure. At minimum, Ferguson’s a good bet to meet his TE9 ADP in Yahoo drafts, along with some profit potential as he steps into his third season.”

Stat to remember

Last offseason Mike McCarthy talked about wanting to “run the damn ball” and to shift philosophy from old coordinator Kellen Moore who wanted to “light the scoreboard up.” Either McCarthy was playing coy, he realized that approach wasn’t best in the modern NFL or he figured out his personnel pretty quickly. Because the Cowboys were fourth in the NFL in pass rate over expectation according to NFELO. They were also fourth in early-down pass rate, via RBSDM.com. Dallas was eighth in the NFL in passing attempts and 14th in rushing attempts. They were a pass-happy team, and that could get even more extreme this season.

The Cowboys let Tony Pollard leave in free agency and reunited with Ezekiel Elliott to replace him. The Cowboys’ running back depth chart, led by Elliott with Rico Dowdle not far behind, might be the weakest in the NFL going into the season. Elliott is past his prime and Dowdle is an undrafted player with 385 career rushing yards in three NFL seasons. That is the weak spot on the Cowboys’ roster, but they might compensate for that by leading the NFL in pass rate.

Burning question

Can Dallas replace Dan Quinn?

The biggest loss for the Cowboys wasn’t on the roster. Dan Quinn did a fantastic job as the Cowboys’ defensive coordinator and was hired away to be the Commanders’ head coach. Mike Zimmer, the former Vikings coach, was hired to replace him. Zimmer is a respected defensive coach, but he has a different personality and schemes than Quinn. Quinn had an impressive run. Dallas finished as a top five defense in DVOA three straight seasons under his watch and led the NFL in takeaways during that stretch.

Zimmer won’t try to replicate Quinn, but he isn’t changing everything either.

“It’s like I told the defense the first day I got here, ’This is a different deal for me. Usually when I come in, the defense is not good.’ And they’re pretty darn good,” Zimmer said, via the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. “We have to advance some of the things they were doing good and try to improve on the things they weren’t doing as good.

“For the most part, they’ve played pretty darn good, and we’re going to try to accentuate that and maybe be a little bit more technique-oriented, maybe a little bit more disciplined. At the end of the day, we’ve got to do it the way I want it done. I know [when] you try to come in and do somebody else’s thing, it just doesn’t go well.”

The Cowboys have good talent, starting with Micah Parsons and including 2023 first-team All-Pro cornerback DaRon Bland. If Zimmer can provide a seamless coaching transition, Dallas should be among the league’s best defenses again.

Best case scenario

The Cowboys have been one of the NFL’s elite teams … in the regular season. Dak Prescott has played at an MVP level. Micah Parsons is going to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year soon. Dallas could be a top five offense and defense this season. And yet it seems like this team won’t win a Super Bowl. That happens when you haven’t been to the NFC championship game since the 1995 season. Since 1996, only Washington and Dallas haven’t appeared in the NFC championship game. Still, logically, a team that can win 12 games three seasons in a row and has a top-tier offense, defense and a quarterback as good as Prescott can win a Super Bowl. If the Cowboys play as well as they did last regular season, they could win the NFC East and then maybe they can avoid a slow start against a wild-card opponent like last postseason. Everyone seems to be writing off the Cowboys but they still have the foundation to win a championship. At least an NFC East championship.

Nightmare scenario

Contract situations can affect players, and the Cowboys’ three best players have uncertain futures. Quarterback Dak Prescott, receiver CeeDee Lamb and edge rusher Micah Parsons are all seeking new deals. That could be a massive distraction this season. There are plenty of other potential concerns too, like the running back situation, receiving power beyond Lamb, an uncertain offensive line and how well the Cowboys defense adjusts without Dan Quinn. The Eagles were horrendous at the end of last season but still have the talent to run away with the NFC East. If the Cowboys don’t adequately answer some of the questions they have coming into the season, they could miss the playoffs. Then you’d have to wonder if Mike McCarthy, Dak Prescott and many others are back in 2025.

The crystal ball says …

Maybe you’re a big fan of Dorace Armstrong or Tyler Biadasz. If so, downgrading the Cowboys makes sense. If that’s not the case, you’re too busy listening to a lot of noise. Dallas is still a very good team. While the concerns about them aren’t completely unfounded, there has been an overreaction to their offseason. That has happened before, mostly because it’s the Cowboys and Dallas defeatism sells. The Cowboys are going to be good again. Dak Prescott will be among the NFL’s best quarterbacks (and will get his contract extension from the Cowboys). Dallas will win the NFC East. Then the Cowboys will probably lose in the first two rounds of the playoffs and next offseason’s chatter will lead you to believe they went 2-15. Then next year in their season preview here, you’ll read about how it will be smart to ignore the negativity surrounding the Cowboys because they’ll be better than people believe. It’s becoming an annual tradition.