NFL offseason rankings: No. 13 Cincinnati Bengals try to contend again with Joe Burrow back

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Here’s how history will look back at the 2023 season of the Joe Burrow era with the Cincinnati Bengals: Burrow suffered a season-ending wrist injury, and that was the only reason the Bengals missed the playoffs and a shot at a long-awaited Super Bowl.

It won’t be entirely true. Losing Burrow, one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, obviously didn’t help. But the Bengals had other issues.

The Bengals were just 5-5 in Burrow’s starts. They were 4-3 without him. As unbelievable as it sounds, Jake Browning had a better passer rating (98.4) than Burrow (91.0) last season. Burrow is obviously miles better than Browning but at very least, Browning wasn’t the lone reason the Bengals season ended up in disappointment. So while it’s easy to chalk up a lost season to Burrow’s injury and assume the Bengals will be a contender again now that he’s back, perhaps it isn’t quite that easy.

The Bengals were a mess early in the season, due to some extent to the calf injury Burrow suffered early in training camp. Burrow missed more than a month leading up to the season and wasn’t moving well as the Bengals started 1-3. Offensive line issues were exposed as Burrow struggled to move. The Bengals warmed up as Burrow got healthier, especially on offense, and that streak included an impressive win at the San Francisco 49ers in Week 8. But the defense was surprisingly down. Cincinnati’s defense gave up big plays in bunches and finished 23rd in DVOA after being good enough to keep the Bengals in championship contention each of the previous two seasons. It’s hard to blame that on Burrow’s wrist.

The Bengals ranked 30th among NFL teams in net yards per play differential at -0.87, which is a telling stat. That was despite Browning doing a pretty good job replacing Burrow, which kept Cincinnati in the playoff race until back-to-back losses at the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs in Weeks 16 and 17. There was just something a bit off about the inconsistent 2023 Bengals, long before Burrow tore a ligament in his wrist while throwing a touchdown pass against the Baltimore Ravens on a Thursday night in Week 11.

“Every year, injuries happen,” Burrow said after the season, via the Cincinnati Enquirer. “But there were a lot of things that went into this year that were not up to our standards. We gotta get those things fixed and we’ll go from there.”

Everything might be back to normal if Burrow is healthy. Burrow says he feels good, though we can’t know for sure until the games start. Burrow said he researched his injury (specifically it’s a a tear in the scapholunate ligament on his right wrist) and couldn’t find another quarterback that had it. That’s a bit scary. But if Burrow plays anywhere near his normal level, Cincinnati should feel like it can get back to the levels of 2021 and 2022, when it lost very close games in the Super Bowl and AFC championship game. Ja’Marr Chase is one of the best players in football. Tee Higgins is still around, even if he might not be that happy to be playing on a one-year deal. There were improvements to the offensive line and some additions to the defense, though some losses as well. And Burrow has an MVP ceiling.

We’ll just have to see if the Bengals are still among the NFL’s elite. They were for two seasons. A very questionable holding penalty on a third-and-goal late in Super Bowl LVI might be the reason Burrow doesn’t have a ring already. Last season knocked the Bengals back a bit, but perhaps that was an outlier. Burrow’s health is one part of the equation. So is fixing whatever was amiss with Cincinnati last season.

Offseason grade

It’s not often that a run-stuffing defensive tackle is a big loss, but D.J. Reader signing with Detroit might hurt. The Bengals defense allowed 4.7 yards per carry, ranking 30th in the NFL, and that was with elite run stopper Reader playing 14 games before tearing a quad muscle. Reader was replaced by Sheldon Rankins, who was with Houston last season, but he is known as more of a pass rusher than a run stuffer. An interior pass rush can help too, though. The Bengals signed safeties Geno Stone and Vonn Bell to help the defense and offensive tackle Trent Brown to bolster the line. Brown will replace Jonah Williams, the Bengals’ former first-round pick who signed with the Cardinals. Cornerback Chidobe Awuzie also left, to the Titans. Longtime slot receiver Tyler Boyd also moved to the Titans, though to help the passing game the Bengals signed tight end Mike Gesicki, who is looking to revive his career. Joe Mixon was traded to the Texans but was replaced by Zack Moss, who was very efficient with the Colts last season. The draft included some high upside picks, most notably first-round offensive tackle Amarius Mims, who started just eight games over his college career but is physically impressive, and third-round receiver Jermaine Burton, a dynamic player who slipped due to character concerns. Second-round pick Kris Jenkins and third-round pick McKinnley Jackson could both help the defensive line. The Bengals’ offseason wasn’t a huge win, but they felt pretty confident with their roster going into it.

Grade: B-

Quarterback report

Joe Burrow did not have a great season. It can be blamed on a slow start due to a calf injury, but he was well off his normal marks. Not counting his rookie season, Burrow posted career lows in completion percentage, yards per game, touchdown percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating. Burrow had a Pro Football Focus grade that ranked him 17th among quarterbacks, just ahead of Russell Wilson and Derek Carr and one spot behind … Jake Browning, his backup. His yards per attempt is a bit concerning, as it has gone from a league-best 8.9 in 2021 to 7.4 in 2022 to 6.3 in 2023.

Burrow was much better in his final six games, posting a 106.5 passer rating. He looked like the star everyone knows him to be. A wrist injury does add some level of concern to Burrow bouncing back to his best form, but there have been no indications that he won’t be healthy long before training camp.

Mostly, it seems prudent to forget about 2023 and figure on Burrow being his typical self.

“It was a weird year,” Burrow said after the season, via the Cincinnati Enquirer. “Never really felt like we really reached our potential to what we were. Obviously, an injury happened right where we usually start to take that jump in the year where we have in years past. It was a tough year.”

BetMGM odds breakdown

The betting market is giving the Bengals a pass for last season. Their win total at BetMGM is a lofty 10.5 and the odds on the over are an inflated -145 (bet $145 to win $100). Only the 49ers, Ravens and Chiefs have a higher win total. The Bengals are fifth in the Super Bowl odds at +1400. Joe Burrow is third in MVP odds at +900. Based on those odds, it’s like a disappointing 2023 season never happened for Cincinnati.

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “When I think of Tee Higgins, the phrase “capped upside” comes to mind. Joe Burrow has 97 touchdown passes in his career, and a modest 19 have gone to Higgins — Ja’Marr Chase is eight touchdowns ahead of Higgins despite playing one fewer season. It’s curious that Higgins was actually more productive with Jake Browning than Burrow last year.

“It might be prudent to throw out Higgins’s stats last year, given that he and Burrow both dealt with injuries. Still, it’s hard to unsee that Higgins was tied for 39th in half-point PPR scoring per game, finishing behind players like Adam Thielen and Kendrick Bourne. Higgins has never scored more than seven times in any season, never commanded more than 110 targets, and never gotten to 1,100 yards. I won’t be looking to roster Higgins this summer unless he’s slotted as my WR3.”

Stat to remember

Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo became a hot coaching name as the Bengals became championship contenders, and got some head coaching interviews. He got plenty of praise for his creative, versatile scheme. That’s what makes the results of the 2023 season so odd.

The Bengals finished 32nd in yards per pass play allowed and 30th in yards per run play allowed. The Bengals gave up 65 pass plays of 20 or more yards — only the Lions gave up more — and 17 run plays of 20 or more yards, which was tied for 30th. Even a bad defense is usually decent at slowing down the run or the pass. The 2023 Bengals did neither.

The big change was overhauling the secondary. The Bengals will have two new starting safeties, with free agent additions Geno Stone and Vonn Bell (who played with the Bengals from 2020-22 and knows the scheme) as the frontrunners. Cornerback D.J. Turner, who started 12 games last season, isn’t guaranteed to start again. The secondary will be much different, especially at safety.

“We are drastically improved with that portion and that part of the game from where we were,” Annarumo told The Athletic, referring to the change at safety.

There are other questions, such as a defensive line without D.J. Reader at tackle and perhaps whether pass rusher Trey Hendrickson is completely happy after an offseason trade request. Regardless, the Bengals need a big improvement on defense if they’re going to make it back to the playoffs.

Burning question

What can we expect from Tee Higgins?

Tee Higgins was an ascending star after the 2022 season. Ja’Marr Chase is the standout of the Bengals receivers, but Higgins seemed more like a 1B to Chase’s 1A than a clear No. 2. Then the 2023 season happened.

Higgins rarely made an impact. He started the season with zero catches on eight targets in Week 1 and it never got much better. He had 42 catches and 656 yards in 12 games, setting a career low in yards per game and receptions per game. Both figures were even lower than his rookie year output. It was far below expectations in what was a contract year. Maybe Higgins’ uncertainty about his contract affected him. That’s bad news for this season, if that’s the case.

Higgins was given the franchise tag by the Bengals. Unlike every other player who got the franchise tag this offseason, Higgins didn’t get a long-term deal. He did sign his franchise tender but this seems like his final season with the team, likely because the Bengals feel they can’t pay Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Higgins.

Unlike other contentious franchise tag situations, there hasn’t been much publicly stated acrimony from Higgins. Higgins said he has “grown a love for Cincy that I didn’t think I would” and wants to stay, via WLWT. He also expressed his desire to remain a Bengal.

“As far as me coming back, I would love to come back,” Higgins said on the “I Am Athlete” podcast in late May. “I grew as a man in the past four years here. Grew as a player … got good new friendships. Great relationships with people not in the facility, in the City of Cincinnati, the fans are great. So I would definitely love to be here.”

Perhaps that’s a good sign that Higgins won’t be upset playing on his franchise tag and can get back to his pre-2023 form.

Best case scenario

Rewind to just before Bengals practice on July 27, when Joe Burrow injured his calf. That injury affected him deep into September. Before Burrow’s injury, Cincinnati was considered one of the best teams in football and a Super Bowl contender. They gave the Chiefs everything they could handle in an AFC championship game at Arrowhead Stadium months before. Once Burrow got rolling, they beat the 49ers 31-17. If we blame the Bengals’ slow start mostly on Burrow’s injury, why can’t Cincinnati go right back to being contenders? The offensive line could be better, Tee Higgins might not be thrilled with his situation but he’s still in Cincinnati, Ja’Marr Chase has NFL Offensive Player of the Year potential and the defense is very unlikely to be worse. The Bengals have a Super Bowl championship upside, which isn’t the case for some of the teams above them in these rankings.

Nightmare scenario

Super Bowl windows can close fast and it’s dangerous to ignore the totality of the 2023 Bengals season. Joe Burrow’s numbers were down. Tee Higgins was mostly invisible. The offensive line did struggle. The defense was a massive disappointment. Also, it should be noted that the Bengals lost offensive coordinator Brian Callahan to the Titans’ head-coaching job. While it seems like promoting quarterbacks coach Dan Pitcher to the coordinator role will work out fine, the loss of coordinators to head coaching jobs can be an underrated blow. And we have to at least allow for the possibility that Burrow might lose at least a little bit from a rare wrist injury. The Bengals play in arguably the toughest division in the NFL and even a healthy rebound doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll win the AFC North. The Bengals clearly wanted to take another swing at a deep playoff run while they have Higgins. Falling well short of that goal would be a sign that they’re further way from contender status than they believe. And it won’t get easier with Burrow’s cap number growing from $29.7 million this season to $46.25 million in 2025 and Ja’Marr Chase looking for a deal that should be about $35 million per year.

The crystal ball says …

The Bengals could be much higher in the rankings due to their upside. However, it’s hard to totally shake what happened last season. The defense was surprisingly down. The offense looked good for a stretch but overall it wasn’t near its normal level, and it’s hard to know if Tee Higgins will be locked in after not getting a multi-year deal. There will be a bit of trepidation about Joe Burrow’s wrist before seeing him in game action. It’s also hard to say if swapping Joe Mixon for Zack Moss will help the run game. In addition, there are a couple of AFC North teams I’m higher on heading into the season. We’ll put the Bengals here for now, assuming they’ll be in contention for a wild-card spot, and if they answer some key questions early in the season they can quickly move up.