NFL offseason rankings: No. 14 Los Angeles Rams don’t have Aaron Donald, but they have a great coach in Sean McVay

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The 2023 Los Angeles Rams season was a crucial one for the franchise, and not just because of the 10 wins the team surprisingly earned.

It was because their coach was back. For good this time.

Sean McVay is more honest than most football coaches, and he has talked about how tough the 2022 season was on him. The Rams followed a Super Bowl season by going 5-12. All the signs last offseason were that McVay was ready to leave the Rams, to take a break due to burnout or simply not wanting to be part of what looked like a rebuild.

McVay didn’t take long to decide to return. Then he did a fantastic job coaching a team that had plenty of questions going into the season.

The Rams weren’t rebuilding after all. They made the playoffs. A mostly young and unproven team, which included a shocking and record-breaking campaign from fifth-round rookie receiver Puka Nacua, had an exciting season. McVay reestablished himself as one of the best coaches of this era, and as he enters this season at age 38, he’s seemingly energized to take on whatever comes next.

“By no means am I perfect, but I’m a lot better off from that 2022 season where you’re saying like, ‘You’re actually thinking about not coaching anymore? What the hell is wrong with you?'” McVay said on former Rams defensive end Chris Long‘s podcast, via Turf Show Times. “But those were real things because you lost your purpose and perspective in the midst of, you know, the good stuff occurring, and last year reminded me why I love this s*** so much, because of those players.”

It’s easy to pick up the excitement in McVay’s voice as he talks about the upcoming season.

“You know what’s cool? Being around this group, especially even last year, it feels like it’s Year 1 again. And I really mean that,” McVay told Rams play-by-play announcer J.B. Long and analyst D’Marco Farr. “You have to kick me out of here now. I feel like these last couple years there’s really just been a real renewed purpose and perspective that reminds you of what a blessing this is.”

Many deficiencies can be covered up with a great coach, and the Rams have that. The Rams had a down season in 2022, but those might be rare if McVay is recharged.

There’s a new challenge, and it’s replacing one of the greatest players in NFL history. Not many defensive players define a championship era for a franchise, but defensive tackle Aaron Donald was special. He has an argument as the best defensive player in NFL history. He retired after 10 NFL seasons. It’s impossible to replace him, but it’s probably best to not completely discount the Rams again.

Like McVay, Matthew Stafford looks rejuvenated coming off an excellent season at age 35. Kyren Williams scored 12 touchdowns as a true workhorse back, and rookie running back Blake Corum could mix in this season and be productive. Nacua had an unbelievable 105 catches for 1,486 yards, both of which are NFL rookie records, then followed that up with a rookie playoff record 181 yards in the Rams’ loss to the Detroit Lions. Cooper Kupp dealt with injuries but is still capable of big games. A young defense was better than expected, though coordinator Raheem Morris left to be the Atlanta Falcons‘ new head coach. The Rams promoted linebackers coach Chris Shula to defensive coordinator, a job Shula has never held in the NFL.

The Rams made the playoffs and lost a close 24-23 wild-card game at the Lions, who are one of the favorites to win this season’s Super Bowl. That was a disappointing finish, but it didn’t stop McVay’s exuberance. A little more than a year ago, it seemed like a good bet that McVay was going to step away. The Rams don’t need to worry about their coach anymore. That makes the future plenty bright, even with Donald calling it a career.

Offseason grade

The Aaron Donald retirement has to be factored into the grade, because that obviously changes the entire Rams defense. The Rams used four of their first six draft picks on defensive linemen as they reset. Defensive end Jared Verse was the first-round pick. In the second, the Rams paid a lot to trade up and take defensive tackle Braden Fiske. Los Angeles traded a 2024 fifth-round pick and a 2025 second-round pick to move up from No. 52 to No. 39 for Fiske, which was a huge overpay. But the Rams have never worried about the value of picks. Running back Blake Corum was an interesting pick in the third round. He was wildly productive at Michigan and the Rams seem to love him already. In free agency the Rams worked on their offensive line, signing guard Jonah Jackson to a three-year, $51 million deal to leave the Lions, and re-signing guard Kevin Dotson on a three-year, $48 million extension. The Rams added other veterans like tight end Colby Parkinson, cornerbacks Darious Williams and Tre’Davious White, and safety Kamren Curl, and swapped backup quarterbacks by adding Jimmy Garoppolo and letting Carson Wentz leave. The big loss was Donald, but the rest of the offseason wasn’t too bad.

Grade: C-

Quarterback report

Matthew Stafford has 56,047 career passing yards, one of 15 5,000-yard seasons in NFL history and a Super Bowl ring. And yet, 2023 might have been his best season. Before last season Stafford looked like he was closer to retirement than his prime, as he dealt with numerous injuries in 2022, including concussions. Then he, like the Rams as a team, had a revival in 2023. Stafford had 3,965 yards and 24 touchdowns passing and while he has had better statistical seasons, the quality of his play was as good as ever. Stafford led the NFL with a big-time throw (a Pro Football Focus metric) on 6.3% of his attempts and a turnover-worthy play on just 1.9% of his attempts, which also led the league. Puka Nacua’s emergence helped, but Stafford deserves plenty of credit for Nacua’s record-setting season. In all ways, Stafford was excellent. He said being the leader of a young Rams roster was a “jolt of energy.”

“Man, it was fun,” Stafford said about the 2023 season after the Rams’ playoff loss, via the team’s site. “I had a blast. It was a heck of a challenge, but I got to sit there and push guys, but also watch guys come into their own in this league, and it’s not an easy thing to do. We got a lot of young guys and not only rookies, but guys who hadn’t played a lot of football, but stepped into big-time roles and became huge pieces of our team and stars in our league. So proud of those guys and happy to be a part of a team that has a group of guys like that. It takes everybody, right?”

BetMGM odds breakdown

The Rams had 10 wins last season but their win total at BetMGM for this season is 8.5. The over is the more popular side, with -155 odds (bet $155 to win $100). The Rams are slight underdogs to make the playoffs, with -130 odds on them missing the playoffs. The Rams’ Super Bowl odds of +3000 are tied for 14th with the Bears. So some regression is expected for the Rams, or perhaps losing Aaron Donald is being baked into the odds.

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Kyren Williams was fantasy royalty last year, finishing RB4 in cumulative scoring and RB2 if we switch to a per-game model. That established, the early Yahoo drafters have pushed Williams into the second round (ADP around 16), and that seems like a prudent move.

“Williams is undersized for the position, checking in at 5-foot-9 and 194 pounds. Sean McVay has a history of featuring one primary back, but he’s smart enough to work with his available talent. The Rams spent an early draft pick on Michigan tailback Blake Corum, who’s both thicker and faster than Williams. Chasing Williams’s monster stats from last season looks like a fool’s errand, especially when you consider that Williams has missed chunks of time in each of his two pro seasons.”

Stat to remember

One tangible reason to worry about Rams regression is their injury luck last season. In 2022 they dealt with numerous injuries and finished second in adjusted games lost due to injury (a metric by Aaron Schatz of FTN Fantasy). The pendulum swung the other way and last season the Rams were the healthiest team in the NFL, finishing with the fewest adjusted games lost due to injury. It went from 146.6 AGL in 2022 to 26.4 last season, which is an incredible shift and shows how injury luck often has no rhyme or reason. The Rams’ good fortune last season included the fourth-fewest injuries on offense and the fewest on defense. Just like the Rams’ miserable 2022 injury luck, the great run from last season is unlikely to repeat. Though, as Schatz pointed out, the Rams were in the top 10 in fewest AGL for six seasons in a row before 2022, so perhaps they have a formula that works. There’s a reason many coaches follow Sean McVay’s lead of sitting practically every key player for preseason games.

Burning question

Can Puka Nacua repeat his rookie success?

Just about every player on the list of greatest rookie seasons in NFL history was a first-round pick, or maybe a second. Nacua set NFL records after being a fifth-round pick. You can make the argument that Nacua had the greatest rookie season ever for a player drafted beyond the first round in the modern era. Or just the greatest rookie season, period. Nacua had 105 catches for 1,486 yards, which are rookie records. To put that in perspective, Randy Moss had 98 catches for 1,493 yards (Moss’ second-most yards in a season) for the famed 2007 Patriots, albeit in one fewer game. Nacua also had 181 yards in the Rams’ lone playoff game, the most ever for a rookie and validation of his incredible season. The NFL missing on Nacua until the Rams took him with the 177th pick could be an oft-told story if Nacua’s first season is a sign of things to come.

It’s hard to predict any player having a repeat of nearly 1,500 yards, but most of the recent receivers who had great rookie seasons either had more yards their second season (Justin Jefferson, Randy Moss, Odell Beckham, Jr., Michael Thomas among them), or remained elite receivers for multiple years even if their yardage dipped in Year 2 (Ja’Marr Chase, Anquan Boldin). The lesson is if you’re that good as a rookie receiver, you’re probably going to remain good. The cautionary tale would be Michael Clayton, who had 1,193 yards as a rookie for the 2004 Buccaneers but never topped more than 484 yards the rest of his career. With Sean McVay calling plays and Matthew Stafford throwing the ball, it seems unlikely that Nacua will dip far, if at all.

Best-case scenario

It would take a lot for the Rams to overcome the 49ers in the NFC West, including some key injuries for San Francisco. But a return to the playoffs is a reasonable goal. And the Rams came closer than we remember to knocking off the Lions in the playoffs, therefore a playoff run can’t be ruled out if Matthew Stafford plays like he did last season. The Rams offense will be dangerous if Puka Nacua plays anywhere near his rookie form, Cooper Kupp is healthy (his otherworldly 2021 season wasn’t that long ago) and the combination of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum keep the running game going. The Rams were a big surprise last season. It shouldn’t be a surprise at all if they’re a playoff team again, which would be good for a team that has a lot of young players.

Nightmare scenario

The Rams beat their expectations by a mile last season. What if all the worries about the roster from last year come true this season? The defense was OK but not great last season, and it lost coordinator Raheem Morris and all-world defensive tackle Aaron Donald. Matthew Stafford was very good last season but is getting to an age at which quarterbacks can lose it quickly. There has to be some concern about Cooper Kupp being on the downside of his career after he put up just 737 yards as he dealt with injuries. If the defense takes a big step back, the Rams might miss the playoffs. That would sting after such a fun 2023 season.

The crystal ball says …

When you’re unlikely to win a division title, which is the case with the Rams, it’s also hard to be confident in a playoff berth. The NFC has plenty of teams that will be in the wild-card race. The Rams will be in that mix too, but the main concern is the defense. Perhaps all of the rookies pay off and a young defensive line without Aaron Donald doesn’t slip that far (second-year tackle Kobie Turner in particular looked like a steal as a rookie), but Los Angeles’ defense ranked 22nd in DVOA last season with Donald, an all-time great player, and Raheem Morris, a respected coordinator. The Rams will be in plenty of shootouts, win a good deal of them and their playoff spot will be determined by whether other mid-level NFC teams like the Bears, Seahawks, Cardinals or any other sleeper takes a big step forward.