NFL panic index: is Travis Kelce finished? And how bad are the Cowboys?

Cincinnati Bengals

A slow start is familiar territory for Cincinnati. In six seasons under Zac Taylor, the Bengals have started 0-2 five times. But dropping their opening three games is new ground, and the odds are now stacked against them. Only four out of 162 teams that have started a season 0-3 have made the playoffs since 1990. The expanded format helps tilt the odds slightly in Cincy’s favor, but not by much.

If you take the positive view, the Bengals have looked flawed in all three games this season but were still only a handful of plays away from going 3-0. The negative view is that once again they have struggled to evolve their offense, and for the first time since Joe Burrow came to town the defense has bottomed out.

Through three weeks, the Bengals have the 30th-ranked defense in the NFL by EPA per play, a measure of down-to-down effectiveness. And while that alone is enough to make a team twitchy, even more disconcerting are the under-the-hood figures. Cincy’s had a pass-rush win rate of just 9.8% against Washington on Monday night. That’s not how often pass-rushers came close to touching Jayden Daniels, it’s how often defenders beat individual blockers. In 10 years of recorded data, it’s the worst pass-rush performance on record.

Related: NFL trend watch: Steelers and Packers up; superstar quarterbacks down

Burrow and the offense provide hope. After a dud against the Patriots in week one, the offense has been fine – Burrow has thrown five touchdowns and zero interceptions. If that can sustain, then the Bengals should be able to sneak back into the wildcard race. They have a favorable schedule over the next four weeks with games against the Panthers, Giants, Browns and Ravens, which could see them nudge closer to .500. But unless they’re able to find some juice along the defensive line they’ll be out of the playoff picture before Thanksgiving.

Panic level: 10/10

Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce is off to a slow start. And there are plenty of theories why. Is he podcasting too much? Worrying about his film career? Spending too much time with Tay? The most likely explanation is simple: he’s a 34-year-old tight end.

Playing tight end is brutal and bruising. When the decline comes, it’s fast. And there were warning signs last year that the end is nearing. In 2023, he started slowly, caught fire midway through the calendar and then took another dip toward the end of the regular season. Bar a couple of huge games against the Bills and Raiders, Kelce had a tough go of it across the Chiefs’ final nine regular-season games. But by the time the playoffs rolled around, he was back to his best.

This season could follow a similar trajectory. Although he is ageing, Kelce is still capable of being one of the most dynamic weapons in the league. He still has an unteachable connection with Patrick Mahomes that can bail KC’s offense out of rough spots. The days of him being a guaranteed first down may be gone, but he remains a big play waiting to happen.

As the Chiefs work in a new group of receivers and look to a younger tight end, Noah Gray, to ease some of the burden on Kelce, his numbers will take a dip – apologies to the fantasy crowd. But by the time the postseason rolls around, it will be Kelce that Mahomes still looks to on must-have-it downs, and he still has plenty of tread on his tires to be a difference maker.

Panic level: 3/10

Dallas Cowboys

You have to hand it to Dallas, they find new, grotesque ways to entertain every season. If the postseason meltdowns were not enough, this season’s twist is a doozy: they’re allergic to stopping the run.

There is nothing more demoralizing for a team than having the ball slammed down their throat over and over again. Through three weeks, the Cowboys have fielded the worst run-defense in the league – and it’s not particularly close. They rank 32nd in EPA per play; they’ve conceded more explosive runs than any team in the league; they’ve whiffed on more tackles than anyone. And there may be no more damning figure in the opening stage of the season than Dallas’ 6.18 average depth of tackle. That’s not a typo. The Cowboys are conceding six yards before a defender even says hello to a ball carrier.

Plenty goes into stopping the run. But it can be boiled down to three overriding principles: talent, technique and tenacity. The Cowboys are lacking in all three – and at all three levels of the defense to boot. Rewatch their matchups against the Ravens or Saints and you’ll see the defensive line being pushed backwards, linebackers flailing around, and descending safeties getting lost in the carnage before them. It’s jarring, sometimes amateurish. So far, adjustments to the scheme and personnel have not eased the problem.

“We’ve got to be detailed,” defensive back Jourdan Lewis said on Monday. “I mean, at the end of the day, this about us stopping people. That’s just what it is.” The details have been lacking, but the Cowboys simply lack the bodies upfront. Former first-round pick Mazi Smith has struggled to keep up with NFL speed at defensive tackle, and they’ve cycled through a rotation of grizzled vets beside him whose best days are long gone.

Of all the problems that have undercut the Cowboys’ poor start to the season, none is as destabilizing as their inability to stop the run. And finding a midseason solution will be a challenge.

Panic level: 8/10

Jacksonville Jaguars

You know things have reached five-alarm territory when a head coach is talking about overhauling his entire offense three weeks into a season. “There has to be changes, whether it’s play design, personnel, everything,” Doug Pederson said after Monday night’s 47-10 loss to the Bills.

In their last 10 quarters, Jacksonville have scored just 23 points and have converted only 18% of their third downs. But beyond the results is the sense that Jacksonville’s offense has zero identity – no organizing principle. They play like a student who’s crammed for the test the night before. Everything looks sloppy. Nothing flows. It’s an offense devoid of ideas paired with a quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, who continues to miss easy opportunities when they do arrive.

If we’re apportioning blame, then plenty should go to Jaguars management for an underbaked roster and a coaching staff that has left the offense looking unprepared. But Lawrence has his faults too. For all of his physical talent, he continues to make ugly, almost inexplicable decisions. On any given week, he’s as liable to deliver a mind-numbing turnover as he is the throw of the day. At some point, inconsistency is not some maddening habit holding you back from your full potential. It is who you are.

The way the schedule sets up, Pederson could be out of a job by the time the Jaguars return from London in October.

Panic level: 9/10

Caleb Williams

After clinching the title of offseason champions, the start to the Bears’ actual season has been dispiriting. An offense expected to deliver fireworks has sputtered. Meanwhile, Chicago have been forced to watch as Jayden Daniels sets fire to secondaries and Justin Fields guides the Steelers to a 3-0 record.

But any sense of panic should be muted. Caleb Williams may have arrived in Chicago with plenty of hype, walking into one of the best situations in a long time for a No 1 overall pick at quarterback. The Bears surrounded their young QB with a glitzy receiving corps. They invested heavily in their offensive line. On the other side of the ball, they returned the bulk of a defense that cracked the top-five by the end of last season. But teething problems were to be expected.

The early returns have been scattershot. Williams has made poor decisions. At times, the game has moved too quickly for him. His accuracy has been up and down, and he’s been anxious to break away from the offense to try to create. But even amid the early hiccups, there are the flashes of the player that Williams will hopefully become. So far, his offensive line has been a sieve, pushing him to indulge his freelancing habit. If that tightens up even slightly, then Williams will be able to distribute the ball around more effectively.

That early August optimism may have faded and the rest of the roster may be further away from playoff contention than anticipated. But as it relates to Williams, Chicago should heed the words of a former foe.

Panic level: 2/10