NFL Week 18 betting: 7 best lines, props and more, including the Vikings-Lions clash

Don’t just assume that because a team is eliminated from the playoff race, or have their seed clinched and will be playing backups, that they have nothing to play for.

It’s a fallacy and the betting lines for the season finale usually reflect it. The line will always shade a bit to the teams in a “must win” situation but keep in mind, those teams haven’t clinched a playoff spot by Week 18 for a reason. And the teams with “nothing to play for” still have professionals who are fighting for their next contract, or simply to go into the offseason on a good note. Some teams are decimated by injuries and simply can’t function anymore — New Orleans Saints, we’re talking about you — but don’t overrate the motivation angle in the season finale.

Here’s a look at Week 18 of the NFL season from a betting perspective, with lines from BetMGM:

Game of the year: Vikings at Lions

The Vikings at Lions game isn’t just the best matchup of this NFL season, it has an argument for the greatest matchup in NFL regular season history. It’s unlikely we’ll ever see another Week 18 game between 14-2 teams, with the winner getting the conference’s No. 1 seed and the loser going down to No. 5.

The Lions are a 3-point favorite. The Vikings have had a hard time getting the respect of a 14-2 team from oddsmakers — they were either a small favorite or underdog in Week 17 at home against the Green Bay Packers, but won again — and the line doesn’t show much concern about a Lions defense that has been decimated by injury. It should be a great game and because of the high profile on Sunday night, one of the most-bet games of the season too. The total is 56.5 and given the state of the Lions defense, taking the over isn’t too aggressive.

The NFL didn’t have too many games with direct playoff implications in Week 18, but the AFC North still has some things to settle. In the first game, the Baltimore Ravens try to clinch the division title against the Cleveland Browns. The Ravens are a huge 18-point favorite. That’s the largest spread for any NFL game this season.

If the Ravens win, the Pittsburgh Steelers will be locked into a wild-card spot. The Cincinnati Bengals need a win and help (losses by the Broncos and Dolphins) to get into the playoffs. The Bengals are a 1.5-point favorite at Pittsburgh. Mike Tomlin didn’t sound like he would sit starters if the Ravens win, though he acknowledged the possibility.

Interesting underdog: Kansas City Chiefs

This is a typical “must-win team” vs. “nothing to play for” opponent. The Denver Broncos win and they’re in the playoffs for the first time since the 2015 season. The Chiefs have the No. 1 seed clinched; they’ve already announced Carson Wentz as their starting quarterback. The Chiefs are a 10.5-point underdog. That seems like a bit much.

Players like Wentz and the rest of the Chiefs lineup on Sunday have more on the line than just resting for the playoffs. They want to put good things on tape. For many it might be their only chance to start all season, and that’s motivation enough. The Broncos as a team have more at stake, but don’t assume the Chiefs won’t play hard.

Fighting for seeding: Washington Commanders

For a team like the Broncos, the stakes are obvious. But each game needs to be analyzed, in case some team decides to pull starters early.

The Washington Commanders clinched a playoff berth last week and can’t win the NFC East, but there’s still plenty to play for. If the Commanders win, they get the No. 6 seed. That’s huge because they would avoid the No. 2 vs. 7 game, which will be at the Philadelphia Eagles. No offense to the Los Angeles Rams or the NFC South champ (Tampa Bay if it wins, Atlanta if it wins and the Bucs lose) but they’re a far easier foe than the Eagles. Washington won’t say that but they know it and will play to win. The Commanders are a 5-point favorite at a Dallas Cowboys team that looked bad last week without CeeDee Lamb, who is done for the season.

Division title on the line: Buccaneers and Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons’ hopes of winning an NFC South title probably died in overtime of Week 17 at the Washington Commanders. The Falcons lost and now need a Buccaneers loss in Week 18 to be alive. Good luck with that.

The Saints have been crushed by injuries and have looked miserable the past few weeks. They face the Buccaneers, who aren’t going to have any mercy. Tampa Bay is a 13.5-point favorite. The Saints will play hard trying to spoil the Bucs’ season, but it will be a struggle due to their injury issues.

The Falcons have to play it out and hope, and they’re 8.5-point favorites over the Panthers. Carolina has had some very good games, but did look bad last week without injured Chuba Hubbard and others in a 48-14 loss to the Buccaneers.

Player prop of the week: Geno Smith over yards

It’s also incentives week, when players chase contract incentives. Oddsmakers have caught onto the trend of betting overs for those who need a certain amount of catches, yards, sacks or whatever else, but it’s still worth noting. In Smith’s case, he’s chasing small fortunes. Smith can earn $6 million on three incentives: He needs 186 yards to set a new career high, a Seahawks win to get to 10 this season, and maintaining a 70.2 completion percentage to set a career high in that mark too. The easiest angle from a betting perspective is Smith’s yards. Smith’s yardage total at BetMGM is 244.5. The Los Angeles Rams won’t lay down; they want the No. 3 seed with a win (they could clinch that with a Buccaneers win or tie in the early games), which would allow them to avoid the Lions-Vikings loser. But Smith getting to 245 yards and getting that incentive seems feasible.

The weirdest matchup: Bills vs. Patriots

One team is resting up for the first week of the playoffs, having the No. 2 seed clinched. The other team gets the first overall pick with a loss.

What do you make of the Bills’ regular-season finale against the Patriots? We already know that Josh Allen (and likely other starters) will make a brief appearance and then head to the bench. Patriots coach Jerod Mayo had an interesting response when asked if Drake Maye would play Week 18, saying: “I would say right now, everything is in consideration. We’ll see how the week goes.” Since then Maye was announced as the starter and Mayo has said the team is focusing on beating the Bills. It is very, very rare a team tanks for the first pick (the Buccaneers likely did in the 2014 finale to get Jameis Winston, so it can happen), so presumably New England will play to win. The Bills are 2.5-point favorites. Good luck figuring this one out.