Ottawa Senators By The Numbers: This Team Is Better Than Last Year

Depending on who you talk or listen to, the proverbial sky is falling in the nation’s capital.

Thanks to two flawed efforts in back-to-back games against the Buffalo Sabres and New York Islanders, a discernible sense of “Here we go again” has pervaded the nation’s capital.

On a certain level, this disquieting sense of concern is understandable. Fans in this city have endured seven consecutive years of mediocre hockey. The modern generation of Senators fans has had it rough. Growing up during the infancy of this franchise’s rebirth, the organization missed the postseason for four consecutive years. It felt like an eternity waiting for the team’s young core to mature and start paying dividends. This rebuild has almost taken twice as long, thanks to the incompetencies and incongruent work performed by the previous regime.

Twice as long!

I was thinking about this as former general manager Pierre Dorion was shown on the last regional TSN broadcast where he was taking in the game from the press box. It takes a significant amount of courage to walk back into the Canadian Tire Centre and know you could be featured like that – opening the door to more negative portrayals and social media criticism.

It’s a sensitive time for Senators fans. Unflattering losses in what were widely perceived as winnable games will fray nerves faster than watching Nikita Zaitsev try to move the puck efficiently while facing pressure from an attacking forechecker.

Judging by the snark online, you would think the Senators were hot garbage.

Heading into their game against Boston tonight, the team is 6-7-0. One game under .500.

The irony is that their record mirrors what it was at this juncture of the season last year, which has inevitably (and unfortunately) drawn premature conclusions that this iteration of the Senators is headed for a similar fate.

It’s lazy and intellectually dishonest.

Thanks to NaturalStatTrick’s data, it is easy to contrast the two versions of the Senators through their first 13 games. (Note: the following data just looks at the Senators’ five-on-five performance)

2023-24:

• CF%: 47.89 (22nd)

• SF%: 49.20 (18th)

• GF%: 53.73 (11th)

• xGF%: 44.76 (29th)

2024-25:

• CF%: 51.78 (11th)

• SF%: 53.88(5th)

• GF%: 47.17 (21st)

• xGF%: 51.46 (12th)

Unlike their 2023-24 season, this year’s version is on the right side of the underlying shot and goal metrics. The only area where they have not improved is their actual goal (GF%) percentage. This abnormality is explainable by the fact that last year’s team outperformed their expected results on the strength of the league’s third-best shooting percentage.

2023-24:

• Sh%: 11.76 (3rd)

• Sv%: 90.19 (21st)

2024-25:

• Sh%: 7.67 (21st)

• 89.96 (24th)

Last year’s Senators team also benefited from getting more saves.

It is not just the percentiles where this year’s Senators look exponentially better. It is also reflected in the rate at which they give up shots and goals.

2023-24:

• CF/60: 57.88 (18th)

• CA/60: 62.98 (26th)

• SF/60: 30.64 (12th)

• SA/60: 31.64 (26th)

• xGF60: 2.46 (22nd)

• xGA60: 3.03 (29th)

2024-25:

• CF/60: 61.68 (11th)

• CA/60: 57.43 (13th)

• SF/60: 31.47 (4th)

• SA/60: 26.93 (8th)

• xGF60: 2.45 (15th)

• xGA60: 2.31 (6th)

This year’s team is creating a higher rate of shots (CF), shots on goal (SF) and a similar rate of expected goals (xGF). They are doing that while they have cut the rates of allowed shots (CA), shots on goal (SA), and expected goals (xGA).

Part of sports fandom is living in the moment, but to portray these two versions of the Ottawa Senators as being the same because of their record could not be more wrong. It undercuts all of the good that this group has done.

Make no mistake, it has not been perfect. If this group finished chances more efficiently, got better goaltending, had better luck or closed games out to secure a point or two, this team would easily have more points than it currently does.

They have also played stretches of games without Linus Ullmark, Shane Pinto and Artem Zub. Every team endures injuries and some bad luck over the course of the season, but those are three significant pieces that exacerbated the team’s depth.

Maybe that sounds like making excuses, but they also represent layers of added context.

If the Senators can find a way to curb some of the problematic minor issues while sustaining their underlying shot and goal metrics, they will be in great shape.

They may even get parts of their fan base to shelve the “What have you done for me lately?” reactions.