Phoenix Suns 2024-25 season preview: Kevin Durant and the NBA’s combustible contender

The 2024-25 NBA season is here! We’re breaking down the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 teams. Enjoy!

PHOENIX SUNS

2023-24 finish

Offseason moves

• Additions: Tyus Jones, Monte Morris, Mason Plumlee, Ryan Dunn, Oso Ighodaro

• Subtractions: Eric Gordon, Drew Eubanks, Thaddeus Young, David Roddy, Isaiah Thomas, Nassir Little

• Complete roster

The Big Question: Was a point guard all that was missing?

Undrafted combo guard Jordan Goodwin was the closest thing to a point guard the Phoenix Suns had on the roster last season. He played half their games and totaled 78 assists. Seven members of the rotation registered more assists, including everyone in the starting lineup. (Yes, Jusuf Nurkić had more assists.)

With that kind of firepower, the Suns should have easily boasted a top-five offense. Instead, they submitted the worst assist-to-turnover ratio (1.82) of any serious team in the Western Conference last season. They moved less and slower than 27 of the league’s 30 teams, according to NBA tracking data. They were closer to the 25th-rated Toronto Raptors than they were the league-leading Boston Celtics.

They also had nothing more than minimum contracts available to address this issue in the offseason. Somehow they landed both Tyus Jones and Monte Morris, who sandwiched Delon Wright among the league’s leaders in assist-to-turnover ratio. They are table-setters, first and foremost, and they rarely turn the ball over.

Add a new head coach, Mike Budenholzer, who designed top-five offenses in both Atlanta and Milwaukee, and that is a solid starting point for significant improvement. Suddenly, you realize, Oh, yeah, maybe they should have had someone to set up a trio of elite scorers rather than let them fend for themselves.

Except, Jones and Morris do not address a glaring weakness on defense. The Suns were swept from the first round of the playoffs, allowing 123.2 points per 100 possessions to the Minnesota Timberwolves, and they may have just gotten worse on that end. If Phoenix wants to play its three stars, a center (Nurkić or newcomer Mason Plumlee) and a point guard, they need Booker, Durant and Beal to be better on defense. That is it.

[Haberstroh: Are Durant and Booker the next dominoes to fall?]

Booker is a willing defender if not a great one. Beal was once similar but abandoned his defense on the Washington Wizards. Durant is 36 years old, though he is still better than he gets credit for on that end. Together they have to put forth the effort. Maybe having a point guard who will make their lives a little easier on the offensive end will save them some energy on defense, where true contenders are made.

Budenholzer built an elite defense in Milwaukee, but he had an All-Defensive triumvirate — Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez — as the backbone of his championship team. Who on the Suns can come close to making that claim? They were fortunate to rate 13th on defense last season. Then again, outgoing coach Frank Vogel built a championship-level defense on the Los Angeles Lakers.

If the Suns maintain a league-average defense and field an elite offensive unit, that is a 50-win team. This is well within reach and should be for a team that boasts two members of Team USA. Will it make a lick of difference in the playoffs? Only if Budenholzer can scheme a defense greater than the sum of its parts.

Best-case scenario

Jones thrives in his first experience as a starter on a talented team, sorting Durant, Booker and Beal into something like 75 points a night. Another season together (this one healthy) yields improved chemistry, especially on the defensive end. Moving Grayson Allen to the bench, where Morris and Plumlee provide additional depth, prevents Phoenix from fielding the league’s worst-scoring reserves again this season. And they are no longer first-round fodder but a serious upset threat to any of the conference’s elite.

If everything falls apart

Leaning heavier into offensive organization does nothing to address their defensive woes — or worse. Neither Durant nor Beal, both of whom have missed significant time over the past several seasons, can get a handle on their health. Nurkić cannot anchor an average defense. A new coach cannot corral a team stuck in its ways. The Suns, as they were for much of last season, are scrapping just to stay relevant in the West, and they are at risk of becoming the most dreadful financial investment into any roster ever.

Fantasy spin

Moving from Vogel to Budenholzer is an upgrade in fantasy. Coach Bud’s offense prioritizes taking more 3s and getting efficient looks near the rim. He typically doesn’t play his starters over 34 minutes a game, but given the health concerns around the Suns’ big three, that’s a good thing in the long run.

I’ve docked Durant to a mid-second-round pick because much of his stats last year came without Beal on the court. Beal has failed to play more than 60 games in three straight seasons, so Durant’s ADP could be a steal if history repeats. Nurkić’s fantasy value is growing since he presumably takes on the Brook Lopez role as a stretch-five on offense and the drop coverage rim protector on defense.

Bringing Jones in on a one-year deal was a good move to help the Suns on both ends. Jones is continually a cheap source of assists and steals from the guard spot who goes late in drafts. And watch out for the swole sniper Grayson Allen. Assuming all that muscle didn’t affect his jumper, he should be a good source of 3s, even if he’s coming off the bench. — Dan Titus

2024-25 schedule

They won 49 games last season and are better. Take the over and do not feel great about it.