Predictions on how contract standoffs like Dak Prescott and Ja’Marr Chase will play out

The contract standoffs with some of the best players in the NFL and their teams are becoming a big concern. How can we know when to draft them in fantasy football?

Oh right, their real life teams matter too. The NFL regular season is a little more than two weeks from kicking off, and a trio of great receivers hasn’t even practiced yet as they await new deals. How will each of the situations resolve themselves? Let’s take a guess on each of the four major standoffs including offensive stars around the NFL:

Let’s start with Prescott, although he’s not holding out or holding in. It’s not really a contentious standoff. He’ll be there Week 1 after practicing all offseason. But his looming contract situation is going to be a season-long story if the Cowboys don’t resolve it. It also affects the next player on this list.

Prescott is set to become a free agent next offseason. Perhaps you’re a football fan who thinks Prescott isn’t very good, but that would be wrong. Prescott almost won NFL MVP last season. He has a 99 career passer rating, fifth best in NFL history. His 67% career completion percentage ranks fourth all time. The Cowboys are 73-41 when he starts in the regular season. Like it or not, he’s going to get paid.

It seems like the Cowboys will be the team paying him. Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones told Yahoo Sports’ Jori Epstein that the Cowboys hope “it gets done before the start of the season.” Prescott has been more diplomatic about it, telling Epstein if the Cowboys want to move on “It’s a business” and with regards to the contract, “Things have to be right from my end as well.” It seems like this is moving along at a positive rate. It’ll be expensive but are the Cowboys really letting their QB walk after this season?

Prediction: Prescott signs before the season, for a record amount

Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb

There haven’t been many positive news items regarding Lamb’s contract discussions. The Dallas Morning News said the Cowboys’ contract offers haven’t reached $33 million. Justin Jefferson set the bar at $35 million per season with his Minnesota Vikings deal, and the top receivers awaiting new deals are keenly aware of that.

Lamb is coming off a monster 1,749-yard season that puts him on a tier with Jefferson or very close. Lamb has not been practicing as he holds out awaiting a new deal. The Cowboys not only have quarterback Dak Prescott and Lamb to worry about, pass rusher Micah Parsons is going to get a big contract extension soon too (Parsons has been practicing as usual). Both believe they’re worthy of being the highest paid non-quarterback in the NFL, according to Yahoo Sports’ Charles Robinson. Can the Cowboys really afford to keep all three superstars? It will be very difficult. It’s quite possible one has to go, and it’s harder to see how the Cowboys finish massive contracts for Prescott and Lamb before Week 1. If the Cowboys prioritize quarterback and pass rusher over receiver, where does that leave Lamb? Dallas seems to be playing a bit of a waiting game with Lamb. Given that Lamb is already holding out, the sides seem reasonably far apart and the Cowboys in a bind with three huge contract extensions coming up, this does seem to be a situation that could impact Lamb’s status at the start of the regular season.

Prediction: Lamb misses a regular-season game, like Chiefs defensive end Chris Jones last season, waiting on his new deal

Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase

Like CeeDee Lamb, Chase has a pretty easy precedent to point to. Justin Jefferson, his old college teammate, got $35 million per season. That’s what elite receivers will want now.

Chase might not be quite as good as Jefferson, who has broken numerous records with the blistering start to his career, but it is close. The Bengals know what Chase should be paid and they have had time to prepare for it, so it’s confusing why a deal isn’t done yet. And it’s getting complicated. Chase is holding in (attending meetings but not practicing), and Bengals owner Mike Brown has said he’d rather negotiate a deal like this in the offseason. That’s not going to be acceptable to Chase.

Former Bengals receiver Chad Johnson jumped into the fray. He said on the podcast of ESPN’s Adam Schefter that he believes the Chase deal will “definitely” get done before the season starts and sometime within the next week. That drew some headlines, though it doesn’t seem like Johnson had any inside information. Everyone is just searching for some breakthrough in the stalemate. For what it’s worth, Johnson was asked if he thought Chase would play Week 1 if a deal didn’t get done and he replied “absolutely not, he’s not touching the field.”

It shouldn’t be all that complicated. The Bengals knew this was coming and they know the market for a receiver of Chase’s ability. It has probably dragged on too long already.

Prediction: Chase gets a deal done a few days before the season opener

The Pittsburgh Steelers should be miffed. On Aug. 13, there was a report that the Steelers and 49ers had agreed to the framework of a deal and it just needed San Francisco to sign off on it. And days passed. The Aiyuk drama had already been simmering for months before that. The 49ers are still negotiating with Aiyuk, trying to figure out a long-term deal. Or they’re figuring out how to trade Aiyuk and not take a step back this season. They’re one of the Super Bowl favorites after all, but that’s with Aiyuk on the roster. Aiyuk led them with 1,342 yards last season and it would be tough to replace him in late August. They would not be the same team without Aiyuk.

It seems like the 49ers got serious about negotiating once the market had been set by the Steelers and perhaps others like the Patriots, who were allowed to talk contract with Aiyuk as he sought a trade. The 49ers don’t want to be without Aiyuk and while it’s hard to figure out how they’re going to pay all their stars — quarterback Brock Purdy is eligible to sign an extension next offseason — they clearly want to get it done.

Prediction: Aiyuk and 49ers come to an agreement on a long-term deal before the season