Projecting the new College Football Playoff rankings after a major shakeup in the SEC

Chaos has been the one constant over the course of this college football season. So, it shouldn’t have been shocking to see two top-five teams go down — again! — last Saturday. After flirting with danger much of the season so far, Miami finally suffered its first loss of the season, falling to Georgia Tech in Atlanta. Meanwhile, Georgia was trounced by Ole Miss for its second loss of the year.

The Bulldogs are one of five (!) two-loss teams in the SEC behind one-loss Texas and one-loss Tennessee, which means it’s time to brush up on the new conference tiebreakers to figure out who all is still alive for the SEC championship game. It also means that there are seven SEC teams still in the mix for College Football Playoff spots. This is exactly what the architects of the expanded CFP wanted — a ton of teams still jockeying for positioning throughout November.

For those of us who want clarity, we’ll have to wait a few weeks. There are a couple of pivotal games coming up, like Tennessee’s trip to Georgia this weekend. If the Vols win, they’ll have a pretty clear path to the SEC title game. If both Texas and Texas A&M win out until they meet on Thanksgiving weekend, it’s also fairly simple; the winner would secure a spot in the championship game. But if Tennessee loses to Georgia, all hell breaks lose, and we’ve got to get out our notepads and calculators.

Thankfully, the final CFP rankings come out on Dec. 8, so we’ll know a lot more about the pecking order of SEC teams at that point. But as I evaluated teams and worked to project the 12-team CFP field, I still had to make some educated guesses. My bracket assumes Georgia beats Tennessee and sneaks into the CFP field despite its downward trajectory (which will be a concern for the selection committee, which uses the eye test as part of its evaluation process) behind the two teams it lost to this season.

I’m also projecting that Indiana loses to Ohio State next weekend in Columbus in a relatively competitive game. The Hoosiers would finish the season 11-1 with a relatively weak strength of schedule and without a signature victory, which would make them one of the most intriguing teams on the bubble. But I’ll give them the edge much like Michigan got the benefit of the doubt a season ago despite not playing quality teams until November because of the way they dominate their opponents (and rank among the nation’s best in most of the key offensive and defensive categories).

Other than those two selections, the rest of my projection is pretty straightforward. As a reminder, the top four seeds go to the four highest-ranked conference champions. I’m projecting Oregon to win the Big Ten, Texas to win the SEC, Miami to win the ACC and BYU to win the Big 12. Obviously, we could see upsets in any of those championship games, especially in the ACC and Big 12. If we do, then Miami and/or BYU immediately become two of the bubbliest teams heading into Selection Sunday. The ‘Canes do not have any signature wins to prop up their resume (and a defense that is a huge liability) while BYU would need to hope that the selection committee respects the Big 12 (and its win over SMU) more than it has to date. With or without upsets in those championship games, both the Big 12 and ACC are facing the very real possibility that they are one-bid leagues in the first year of the 12-team field.

That reality certainly helps independent Notre Dame, which has been playing extremely well as of late and dispatching opponents with ease. I’m projecting the Irish to win out and host a first-round game as the No. 7 seed, sliding in ahead of the two-loss at-large SEC teams as well as one-loss Indiana. They’ll have wins over Texas A&M, Army and Navy to anchor their resume.

Penn State is another team that won’t have a signature win to its name by the end of the regular season. The Nittany Lions lost to Ohio State in their only marquee game, and they’ll need to root for some of their opponents to finish the season strong to at least turn into wins over opponents with .500 or better records. Still, with so many flawed teams across the nation and the plethora of two-loss teams in the SEC, Penn State should feel relatively confident that its 11-1 record and performances like Saturday’s dominant win over Washington can convince the committee to slot the Nittany Lions into that 5-8 seed range, which would allow them an opportunity to host a first-round game. The committee has given the top Big Ten teams a great deal of respect thus far, so I’m basing this selection and seed off of that.

What I’m most curious to see in Tuesday’s reveal of the new CFP rankings is how the selection committee views Georgia after its second loss. Quarterback Carson Beck has been a problem for weeks, and this team is trending down. Last week, the ‘Dawgs were ranked third, behind Oregon and Ohio State but two spots ahead of the next-best SEC team, Texas. Alabama checked in at No. 11 as the top-ranked two-loss team, and I expect the Tide to remain well-positioned to make the final field after a dominant win at LSU. Alabama’s win over Georgia should still carry some weight, even as the ‘Dawgs falter a bit, and it will certainly matter down the stretch if those two teams get compared directly to one another by the committee.

I’ll also be curious to see how far Miami falls after its loss to Georgia Tech. The ‘Canes still are well-positioned to get to the ACC championship game — they’d win the tiebreaker with Clemson because of their win over Louisville — but their ranking on Tuesday night will give us an idea of whether they have any viability as at-large team if Miami if they don’t win the league’s title game and get the ACC’s auto-bid.