Pros and Cons: Should Yankees trade for Alex Bregman?

Any potential Yankees trade for Alex Bregman is awash in complications, including the fact that the surging Houston Astros now are increasingly unlikely to be sellers before the MLB trade deadline. But the idea of adding a talented player who is such a polarizing figure in The Bronx is too intriguing to ignore, especially because the Yankees have such an obvious need for a corner infielder.

So suspend disbelief for a moment and think about this – what if one of the 2017 Astros helped the Yankees win the World Series for the first time since 2009? Can anyone in pinstripes, from Aaron Judge to the front office, put aside Houston’s sign-stealing scandal if it means bulking up this year’s team?

Talk about a juicy narrative!

It’s worth looking at how a 30-year-old third baseman with power and plate discipline could impact a top-heavy team whose lineup limps after Judge and Juan Soto. 

Here’s a glance at the pros and cons of the Yankees possibly trading for Bregman:

The Pros

The Yanks need help at third. Badly. They are 27th in OPS (.611) at the position and one of only four teams with fewer than 100 total bases from their third baseman. DJ LeMahieu, who figures to get a lot of reps at third without a trade, has a .490 OPS entering play Thursday. The average MLB third baseman has a .706 OPS, according to Baseball Reference.

Bregman is a two-time All-Star who led MLB in bWAR in 2019 (8.9), the year he finished second in the AL MVP voting to Mike Trout. Bregman had 41 homers, 112 RBI and a 1.015 OPS that season and also led MLB with 119 walks.

He’s never gotten to those kinds of numbers again, but he’s still a reliable offensive threat who totaled 25 homers, 98 RBI and an .804 OPS last year. He’d certainly help lengthen the Yankee lineup and is coming off a solid June where he slashed .310/.367/.450.

Bregman makes contact (career 13.4 percent strikeout rate, nine points below MLB average), seeks to control the strike zone in the way the Yankees adore and regularly hits the ball in the air, a strategy that works at Yankee Stadium. He’s apparently not overly helped by Minute Maid Park’s dimensions – he’s got slightly more homers in fewer career games on the road and his OPS is only five points higher at home.

He also can be an impact defender. In the Astros’ victory over the Mets earlier on Sunday, Bregman made two eye-popping plays, dashing back to snag a difficult foul pop near the stands in left field and swooping in to barehand a do-or-die grounder by Mark Vientos with the potential winning run on third.

There’s more – Bregman has scads of postseason experience. He’s played in 97 career playoff games (ninth-most all-time) and is a two-time World Series winner. He’s played in the ALCS for seven consecutive years – all of his full seasons in the majors. He’s tied for sixth all-time in postseason home runs with Albert Pujols, Corey Seager and George Springer. They all have 19. He’s tied for eighth in postseason RBI (54) with Pujols.

And the Yankees have welcomed former villains before, though there aren’t real equivalents to what Bregman and the Astros did in their sign-stealing scam. But Roger Clemens, decried by all in pinstripes as a headhunting maniac while he pitched elsewhere, was hailed in The Bronx, where the Yanks quickly preferred the characterization that he was a hard-nosed hurler who had the right to pitch inside.

The Cons

The Astros started poorly – remember the Yankees clobbering them in a four-game series in Houston to start the season? – and they were 12-24 on May 8. But they are 44-42 entering Thursday, only two games back in the AL West Division and three back in the AL Wild Card race.

So while contenders may have been dreaming up trade scenarios involving Astros players earlier, especially for a rental like free-agent-to-be Bregman, Houston may be buyers now. In fact, GM Dana Brown said as much on MLB Network last week and added, “I don’t see us as a club that’s going to be a seller.”

Even if Houston’s season sours, perhaps the Astros would not want to deal Bregman in case they’re planning to re-sign him. In spring training, Brown talked about the possibility of offering Bregman a contract extension, though Bregman’s agent is Scott Boras, who has had a lot of success taking clients to free agency.

Bregman had a slow start this season, though he’s been better lately. He did not hit his first homer until the 26th game of the season. He was slugging as low as .252 after his first 33 games. At the end of May, he had a .652 OPS, though it’s .700 now.

His walk rate now is worse than any year since his rookie season. He’s never lit up Statcast with brawny exit velocities or hard-hit percentages.

Then there’s the lingering bitterness from the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, which many believe taints their accomplishments. There were plenty of harsh words and hard feelings about it in Yankeeland. Some Yankees opined that Houston’s 2017 World Series ring was not properly earned. Maybe the Yanks should have gone to the 2017 Fall Classic instead.

Yankee fans continue to remind the Astros of their transgressions every chance they get and baseball history will not forget the trash cans, nor the Astros’ lukewarm apologies at spring training in 2020 after their cheating was found out.

Could Yankee fans embrace Bregman if it meant helping a run this year? Should it matter to the team if fans were mad if Bregman donned pinstripes?

The Verdict

Bregman is clearly a better option at third base than what the Yankees currently have on their roster, but this is a no. The presumptive benefits of acquiring him aren’t overwhelming enough to drop an Astro into the middle of what appears to be a vibing Yankee clubhouse.

There aren’t any metrics to measure karma, but, if there were, the Yanks’ KAR (Karma Above Replacement) would have to be better with another infielder. Perhaps the Angels’ Luis Rengifo, currently batting .315, or old pal Gio Urshela of Detroit? The Yanks could improve their lineup with a deal at another position too, maybe by adding a first baseman.

It’d be a spectacle to watch the Yanks squirm as they are asked about getting Bregman, who was a huge part of the teams that ended their seasons in 2017, 2019 and 2022, sure.

But why create that kind of storyline around a team that has the most wins in the American League?