Scottish business confidence falls in March

Business confidence in Scotland fell 15 points during March to 41%, according to the latest Business Barometer from Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking.

Companies in Scotland reported lower confidence in their own business prospects month-on-month, down 10 points at 58%. When taken alongside their optimism in the economy – which fell 23 points to 23% – it gives a headline confidence reading of 41% (versus 56% in February).

However, a net balance of 41% of businesses in the country expect to increase staff levels over the next year, up 15 points on last month.

Looking ahead to the next six months, Scottish businesses identified their top target areas for growth as evolving their offering, for example by introducing new products or services (42%), investing in their team, for example by hiring new staff or investing in training (37%) and introducing new technology, such as artificial intelligence or automation (34%).

Services confidence fell five points to 40% – the first decline since December – although that drop was offset by rises in confidence in the manufacturing, retail and construction sectors.

The gains in manufacturing (up one point to 41%) and construction (up two points to 40%) were relatively modest and confidence remained below levels seen at the start of 2024. Firms in the retail sector reported improved confidence (up five points to 45%), which was the strongest result for over two years.

Martyn Kendrick, director for Scotland at Bank of Scotland Commercial Banking, said: “Many businesses still face unpredictable market conditions and acute cost pressures, making long-term financial planning more daunting.

“However, the fact that so many Scottish firms are still optimistic about their trading prospects over the coming year highlights the resilience and ambition prevalent within our business community.

“The emphasis on growing headcount and investing in workforce development is particularly encouraging.”

Hann-Ju Ho, senior economist at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, added: “Businesses continue to signal optimistic hiring intentions, although slightly down on previous months.

“It’s possible the impending minimum wage rises in April are beginning to come into sharper focus for businesses – especially smaller firms.

“Overall, the barometer across the quarter suggests that we could begin to see more optimistic economic growth in 2024 than seen in recent years, although medium-term challenges remain.”

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