Surprised by Vandy upsetting Alabama? Don’t be

A season ago, Vanderbilt finished 2-10 and 0-8 in SEC play — losing the conference games by an average of 20.3 points. Its closest result was a 31-15 defeat to Auburn.

There was no earthly reason to believe Vanderbilt football would be anything other than what Vanderbilt football has always — or most always — been. Non-competitive.

Yet last offseason, coach Clark Lea brought in 43 new players, either from high school recruiting or the transfer portal.

On Saturday, the Commodores improved to 3-2 on the season via a 40-35 upset of No. 1 ranked Alabama.

It was fueled not just by the blood and guts quarterback Diego Pavia (a transfer from New Mexico State) who threw for 252 and two touchdowns and rushed for 57 additional yards. He was playing behind three offensive line newcomers — Steven Losoya (Mississippi State), Steven Hubbard (UTEP) and Chase Mitchell (Liberty) — who joined returning senior starters Gunnar Hansen and Delfin Xavier Castillo to dominate the Crimson Tide.

Vandy outgained Alabama (418-394) and out-rushed Alabama (166-84). It also converted 12 of 18 third downs and went one-for-one on fourth. It controlled the time of possession (42:08-17:52). It ran 75 plays to the Tide’s 45.

On Saturday at least, Vanderbilt was just better.

This was a new team in a new time for college football. Much has been made about the expanded, 12-team playoff creating fresh paths to the postseason for more teams, but also allowing powerhouses such as Alabama more chances to stumble. Not every loss is disabling (not that it ever really was for teams like ‘Bama).

The bigger development is that they need to be able to withstand those losses, because it appears there will be more of them.

College football — or at least college football in the SEC — hasn’t yet reached the NFL’s “Any Given Sunday” ethos of parity, but that doesn’t mean the competitive balance isn’t flattening out some.

The sport is more competitive than ever. While many wrongly predicted Name, Image and Likeness and the immediate eligibility of the transfer portal would aid the Alabamas of the world — the rich getting richer — the opposite has proven true.

For years, the blueprint to winning a national championship was racking up a string of top five recruiting classes, which only a handful of programs had the means, tradition and geography to pull off. As recently as a half decade ago, entire seasons featured just three or four legit title contenders.

Meanwhile, for a program such as Vanderbilt, building out of the basement required years of slow steps amidst the setbacks. Almost no one ever accomplished it.

Now neither is true. The last two national championship games featured Michigan, Washington and TCU — none of whom had realistically contended in decades but were all bolstered by transfer portal additions and NIL-fueled returns of existing talent.

Meanwhile, conferences have begun to flatten out, even as they’ve expanded to increase the number of heavyweight v. heavyweight match-ups.

Consider that in years past, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Oregon may have been able to blitz through their respective conferences (Big Ten and Pac 12) unscathed and into the playoff. Now they face off in a Big Ten conference match-up on Saturday in Eugene.

Then there is the week in, week out gauntlet for every team. Vanderbilt, which had lost 60 consecutive games against top five opponents, suddenly proved to be serious competition against Alabama. Maybe the Tide once could have walked through them and only been concerned about bigger clashes — say Tennessee in two weeks.

Not anymore.

The once fourth-ranked Volunteers, for their part, fell 19-14 to Arkansas on Saturday in a stunner. The Hogs, after all, were just 4-8 overall and 1-7 in the SEC last year. Coach Sam Pittman was firmly on the hot season. Yet he brought in 40 new players, including 22 transfers and the rebuilt Arkansas defense held the high-powered Tennessee offense largely in check.

Every program has money. They always have. In the past, booster cash was spent passively by investing in facilities or coaching salaries in the hopes it would eventually result in attracting better players. Most of the time they couldn’t win the construction race.

Now the money can go directly to the players … and talent will go wherever there’s cash to be made.

At the same time, the depth on major programs is decreased as players deep on the depth chart go looking for playing time at other schools; including down to the Group of 5 level. That also weakens the top.

Just a week into October, the SEC is down to just one unbeaten team — Texas. The ACC is led by familiar names such as Clemson and Miami, but SMU and Pitt are ranked and Syracuse is showing serious life. It seems almost anyone can win the Big 12.

The playoff will feature two- and three-loss teams, which once seemed ridiculous. Get comfortable with it because the schedules are tougher now and the gap within a league is smaller, so it’s inevitable there will be more “upsets.”

The loser here is some Group of 5 teams — surely New Mexico State wishes it still had Pavia playing for them. There is some trickle down talent though, and there have been a number of upsets and upstarts this year — from Northern Illinois over Notre Dame to the clear excellence of Boise State.

This is the start of an entirely new era for the sport. The playoff, of course, but also more and more schools embracing a modern way of constructing a roster and having the ability to flip a program almost overnight.

That’s what Clark Lea did last offseason, and on Saturday, Vandy finally beat a top five team. The biggest surprise was that if you watched the game, it wasn’t a surprise at all.