Tadej Pogacar could deliver one of the Tour de France’s most dominant performances

Geraint Thomas believes Tadej Pogacar “could look to put the race to bed” in the first week of this year’s Tour de France as the Slovenian attempts to become the first man since Marco Pantani in 1998 to pull off a Giro d’Italia-Tour double in the same season.

Such is the course in the first few days of this year’s Tour, which begins in Florence on Saturday, and more importantly, such is the uncertainty over the form of Visma-Lease a Bike’s Jonas Vingegaard following a heavy crash in the spring, there has been speculation all week that Pogacar’s UAE Team Emirates might look to attack from the outset rather than allow Vingegaard, who has beaten Pogacar to the yellow jersey for the last two years, to build up his fitness.

Attacking from the gun was a tactic Pogacar deployed to devastating effect in last month’s Giro. The 25-year-old finished just behind Ineos Grenadiers’s Jhonatan Narváez on the opening stage into Turin, putting 10 seconds into his main rivals. He then gained another 27sec in winning stage two. By the end of the first week, the Slovenian was two-and-a-half minutes clear.

With Saturday’s first stage of the Tour featuring 3,600 metres of vertical gain, and Sunday’s second stage including the 2km ascent to the San Luca Basilica – where the one-day Italian classic Giro dell’Emilia concludes – near the finish in Bologna, there may be an opportunity to gain a few seconds, even before the race crests the Galibier on stage five.

Thomas said he was sure it was something UAE Team Emirates will have looked at, especially with Visma-Lease a Bike looking far weaker on paper than they were this time last year, when the Dutch squad were on their way to winning all three grand tours. As well as Vingegaard, Wout van Aert also suffered a heavy crash in the spring. There have also been setbacks for Christophe Laporte, Dylan van Baarle, Steven Kruijswijk and Cian Uijtdebroeks. In a final blow, Vuelta a España winner Sepp Kuss was ruled out earlier this week after failing to recover from Covid. The team has also lost Primoz Roglic to Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe.

“I think so,” Thomas told Telegraph Sport when asked whether UAE Team Emirates might look to put the race to bed early. “I think it’s something they could look at doing. I don’t know if stage one is hard enough [to put time into the main contenders]. Obviously, it’s a tough stage. I’m not sure it’s tough enough to really expose [Vingegaard] there. But I think it’s going to be a hard start.

“The day after, obviously, there’s that steep climb before Bologna, there could be little time gaps there. And then obviously the Galibier, something could happen there. And then the ITT [individual time trial] at the end of the first week. I think it’s all just ‘the harder the better’ from the UAE point of view. There are opportunities to gain a bit of time for sure.”

Thomas added: “I don’t think Jonas is going to be too far off, to be honest. But yeah we’ll see. I think, you know, it’s not just Pog and UAE. Like they’re obviously aggressive. But there’s also Bora, how do they look at it with Primoz Roglic? And Remco [Evenepoel], whether he will go at it. Although that might come around to bite him in the a— if he does.”

Pogacar has not tried too hard to dampen the speculation. When Thomas’s co-host on his Watts Occurring podcast, Luke Rowe, put it to their guest Pogacar a few weeks ago that he might “whack the first few days and put [Visma-Lease a Bike] to sleep” he replied: “Yeah, but now you told everybody.”

The 2020 and 2021 winner even fired an ominous warning to his rivals earlier this week when he said he had “never felt so good on the bike”, adding that despite a bout of Covid earlier this month, he had “made a step forward” since the Giro. There may be an element of kidology at play. But Pogacar is a phenom who relishes making big statements on the bike.

Naturally, if he does do it, there will be some scepticism. Only seven men have managed the Giro-Tour double in history. Fausto Coppi, Jacques Anquetil, Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault, Stephen Roche, Miguel Induráin and Pantani in 1998. The Italian was thrown off the Giro the following year for drug use.

Chris Froome, who failed in his own bid to do the Giro-Tour double in 2018, believes the situation favours Pogacar, however. Froome won his Giro with a lung-busting solo attack on stage 19, having crashed painfully ahead of the opening day time trial. Pogacar, by contrast, was able to conserve energy in pink, having established such a commanding early lead.

“I came into the Tour de France [in 2018] and I could feel at the start that I was just missing that freshness, that edge that I would need,” Froome said during the recent Critérium du Dauphiné. “From being able to control the workload through the May preparation period.

“Tadej had a very different Giro compared to the Giro that I had back in 2018 where he seemed as if was riding very much within himself. Even though he took a whole bunch of time from everyone else there.

“I really believe that he’s got a strong shot at the double this year. If anyone can do it, it will be him.”

Whether Pogacar decides to attack or not, others undoubtedly will. Britain’s Tom Pidcock said earlier this week it would be a “dream” to take the yellow jersey on the opening day. And the course looks tailor-made for the 24-year-old, who says he is mainly stage-hunting this year rather than riding for general classification as he looks ahead to the Paris Olympics where he will try to defend his mountain bike title as well as win gold in the road race.

“A lot of teams probably fancy their chances [in the opening stages],” Thomas reflected. “Guys like [Lidl-Trek’s Mads] Pedersen all the way through to the climbers. So yeah, it’s going to be an interesting few days.”

Pidcock said he would not be surprised to see Pogacar challenge the stage-hunters. “I think UAE are going to want to make a difference already at the start of this race knowing that Jonas Vingegaard is a bit of an unknown. I think they will want to put their cards on the table early in case he comes good in the final week.”

Five riders who could challenge Pogacar

Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Has beaten Pogacar the last two years, but the Danish rider’s team is hugely depleted and his own form uncertain following a heavy crash earlier this year.

Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

Now 34, this could be Roglic’s last chance to win the Tour. The former ski jumper has moved teams to do so. Won the Critérium du Dauphiné warm-up race earlier this month.

Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quick Step)

Making his Tour debut this year, Evenepoel will be interesting to watch. Not a pure general classification rider like Pogacar or Vingegaard, but he won the Vuelta in 2022 and tends to go all out.

Carlos Rodríguez/Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers)

The British squad have two leaders. Rodríguez, 23, finished fifth last year and is fast-improving. Bernal, 27, won the race in 2019 but is still battling back after a life-threatening crash in 2022. Geraint Thomas will be providing support, but may try to stay up on general classification as well.

Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates)

What if Pogacar crashes? The Slovenian’s “right-hand man” Adam Yates would inherit his crack support team, hence why the Briton is third-favourite with the bookies.

What to expect from Britons at the Tour de France

Eleven Britons will roll out in Florence on Saturday, some with hopes of stage victories and high finishes in the general classification.

Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan)

Despite announcing in May last year that he would step away from the sport, his crash and withdrawal from the 2023 Tour convinced him to hang on for one more attempt to make further history and pull clear of Eddy Merckx with a 35th stage win at the race. “I’m ready,” he said, speaking before the Tour. “But maybe the other ones are even more ready than I am.”

Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers)

Champion in 2018, Thomas arrives off a third-place finish at the Giro d’Italia. He will not be riding for himself, however, instead acting as domestique-deluxe for the Ineos Grenadiers leadership duo of Egan Bernal and Carlos Rodríguez. “I think I’ll get the opportunity to go for a stage, but I think that can also benefit the guys riding GC [general classification] as well,” he said.

Tom Pidcock (Ineos Grenadiers)

Last year, Pidcock was a co-leader, alongside Rodríguez, only to crack in the mountains on stage 14 – which his Spanish team-mate went on to win. Pidcock’s role this year will be as a domestique while also targeting stage wins. He has identified the opening stage – and thus the yellow jersey – as his first goal. “It’s kind of what I’ve been dreaming of this last month when I’ve been training hard,” he said. “There’s a lot of guys who will already be having the same dream so it’s not going to be easy, but we’re going to give it a good shot.”

Simon Yates (Jayco-AlUla)

Fourth last year, 1min 27sec behind his brother’s third place, this year Simon is the only rider on this list heading to the Tour as his team’s out-and-out general classification contender. “I have held the leader’s jersey in the Giro and Vuelta and podiumed overall in both but not in the Tour de France yet. That is a big goal of mine,” he said.

Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates)

Despite last year’s podium, this year Adam’s role again revolves around helping Tadej Pogacar slay the beast that is Jonas Vingegaard and Visma-Lease a Bike. He may also be eyeing another podium finish himself, especially if fatigue catches up with his leader just weeks after winning the Giro. Discussing team strategy before the race, Pogacar said: “Yates will be my right hand.”

Fred Wright (Bahrain Victorious)

The 25-year-old who heads into his fourth Tour de France, was recently selected ahead of Thomas to represent Team GB at the Paris Olympic Games.

Oscar Onley (DSM-Firmenich PostNL)

The Scot, who won a stage at the Tour Down Under this year, heads into his first Tour as a useful card to play in the mountains.

Dan McLay (Arkéa-B&B Hotels)

The 32-year-old, heading into his fourth Tour, is set to act as lead-out for sprinter Arnaud Démare as his team target stage victories.

Jake Stewart (Israel-Premier Tech)

Stewart is riding at his first Tour de France, meaning he will have competed in all three grand tours once the race kicks off.

Stephen Williams (Israel-Premier Tech)

Williams, the Welshman who won this year’s Tour Down Under and La Flèche Wallonne is a dark horse and one that can excel on the punchier climbs.

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