Tampa Bay Rays 2024 offseason preview: Can healthy pitching get the Rays back to the postseason?

2024 season: Eliminated on Sept. 25, 4th in AL East

Let’s take a look at the season that was for the 2024 Tampa Bay Rays, the questions the team must address this winter and the early outlook for 2025.

Read more: 2024 MLB offseason previews: What’s next for the White Sox, Reds, Rangers and more?

Things that went right

There were few significant positives during a season in which the Rays snapped their five-year postseason streak.

Tampa Bay has long been known for its pitching success, and after struggling in that area in the first half of 2024, the Rays ranked among the league leaders in ERA after the All-Star break. Shane Baz and Jeffrey Springs returned in July from their respective Tommy John surgeries, and they joined Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley and Zack Littell to create an effective rotation. Edwin Uceta was a dominant force in a relief corps that featured several successful hurlers.

After struggling in a brief cameo last year, coveted prospect Junior Caminero made his 2024 debut on Aug. 13. Caminero didn’t set the league on fire, but the 21-year-old held his own and took valuable steps toward eventually being a centerpiece in a low-scoring lineup that desperately needs one.

Things that went wrong

After ranking fourth in baseball in runs scored last year, the Rays were among the lowest-scoring teams in the league in 2024.

Josh Lowe’s strikeout rate ballooned, and in turn, his on-base percentage dropped. His struggles were mainly isolated to the first half of the season, when he dealt with an oblique injury and posted a .652 OPS across 44 games. Yandy Díaz experienced an even larger decline than Lowe, as both his on-base rate and his power numbers took significant tumbles. Christopher Morel was acquired at the trade deadline in the Isaac Paredes deal, but instead of sparking the lineup, Morel struck out often and made the problems worse.

Offseason plans

The Rays have plenty of pitching. Similar to Springs and Baz, Drew Rasmussen has returned from elbow surgery and will be ready to contend for a rotation spot in spring training. Shane McClanahan will hopefully be ready to resume his role as the staff ace by Opening Day, as he returns from his 2023 Tommy John procedure. Add in Pepiot, Bradley and Littell, and the Rays have more appealing rotation options than most organizations. The bullpen is in a similarly good spot, as key relievers Uceta, Pete Fairbanks, Kevin Kelly and Garrett Cleavinger are all under contract for 2025.

Díaz will return as the first baseman, as he is in the midst of a three-year contract. Caminero will make his first of many Opening Day starts at third base, but things are uncertain elsewhere. The Rays could exercise a $10.5 million option on Brandon Lowe, their oft-injured but powerful second baseman. And there are two mediocre options at shortstop, where José Caballero and Taylor Walls both have superior speed but poor plate skills. Caballero is slightly better offensively, while Walls is an exceptional fielder. Morel is not known as a good defensive player, but he can play several positions while primarily serving as the DH.

The outfield is no more settled than the infield. Lowe will play right field, and Jose Siri can be the center fielder if the club settles for an excellent defensive player who strikes out too often to make a major offensive impact. Jonny DeLuca and midseason acquisition Dylan Carlson will both factor into the outfield picture, but neither has done enough to be guaranteed a significant role. If there is a need on this team, it’s for an outfielder who can hit in the heart of the lineup.

The Rays are famous for overcoming a low payroll by making creative roster moves. They’re going to need a couple more of those wise decisions this winter, as the purse strings are unlikely to be opened to any significant degree. Trading a starting pitcher for an outfielder seems like the obvious move, but predicting the direction of the Rays is usually a fool’s errand.

Prospects on the horizon

After factoring in the Rays’ acquisitions at the trade deadline, MLB Pipeline tabbed them as the team with baseball’s best farm system. The club reaped immediate benefits from the farm when Caminero joined the team, and there are more prospects on the way. Fortunately, all of the team’s best prospects should help improve the batting order.

Shortstop Carson Williams is one of baseball’s top prospects and should debut at some point in 2025. He’s an outstanding defender thanks to his superior speed, soft hands and powerful arm that comes from formerly being a pitcher. Cutting down on his strikeouts will be the key for Williams to speed up his timeline.

Chandler Simpson is going to be a treat for Rays fans, possibly as soon as next summer. The 23-year-old is one of baseball’s fastest players at any level, having tied for the minor-league lead with 94 steals in 2023 and surpassed that total this year. There is no power component to Simpson’s skills, but his game-changing speed gives him plenty of defensive potential in center field.

The organization has two other outstanding prospects at the Double-A level in infielders Xavier Isaac and Brayden Taylor. Isaac and Taylor were first-round draft picks in 2022 and 2023, respectively, and they both have balanced offensive profiles that include solid power, speed and the ability to get on base.

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Goals for 2025

There is a path for the Rays to return to the postseason. The quest will be led by the reemergence of several hurlers who opened 2024 on the IL, which could spark the pitching staff to become one of baseball’s best. It doesn’t hurt that the Rays have a long history of finding effective pitchers when no one sees it coming.

While effective pitching will be the foundation of the 2025 team, the lineup will also need to be more productive. If the team flounders around .500 for a second straight year, offense will be the reason. Díaz and Josh Lowe need to have bounce-back seasons, and Caminero must continue to establish himself as an offensive asset. Adding an impactful hitter would give a big boost to a club that won’t get any production from its premium prospects until the summer at the earliest.

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Fantasy focus

Tampa won’t offer any early-round picks for fantasy managers next year. McClanahan will cause the most buzz, thanks to his stellar career numbers (3.02 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 rate), and his expected innings total will determine his fantasy draft placement. Pepiot made a significant fantasy impact in 2024 and will likely be the second Rays pitcher to come off draft boards. Several other starters will join mixed-league rotations, including Bradley, Springs and Baz.

The hitters are less appealing, but Josh Lowe, Caminero and Díaz will all be selected in the second half of drafts. Lowe is especially appealing, in hopes that he can recreate his 20-homer, 32-steal season from 2023.