Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, betting trends, and stats

Texas (5-0, 1-0 SEC) has thoroughly dominated their early season schedule, dispatching the National Champion Wolverines 31-12 along the way while boasting a pristine 38 point per game win differential. Their passing offense has been nearly flawless, with the Quinn Ewers-Arch Manning tandem achieving a 52% passing success rate (13th) while ranking 5th in EPA/dropback. The run game has been efficient (4th in success rate), but lacks big play ability ranking 94th in yards per successful rush. Defensively the Longhorns’ secondary has been elite, rating 1st in EPA/dropback and 2nd in passing success rate. Their rush defense has been decent but not exceptional, rating 60th in rushing success rate and 94th in opportunity rate, though.

Despite their record and #18 ranking, Oklahoma (4-1, 1-1 SEC) has struggled mightily on offense ranking 130th in success rate and 129th in plays of 20+ yards as blue-chip QB Jackson Arnold’s play completely cratered with OU turning to freshman dual-threat QB Michael Hawkins. Unfortunately the run game hasn’t helped to offset their punchless passing offense, ranking a ghastly 131st in rushing success rate and 110th in EPA/rush. Conversely the defense ranks 10th in SP+ and has been verifiably stout against the run, ranking 8th in rushing success rate and 12th in EPA/rush. However, the secondary is allowing 6.1 yards per dropback (65th) and currently slots as the 118th-rated defense in allowing explosive pass plays.

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Game Details and How to watch Texas @ Oklahoma live

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Game odds for Texas @ Oklahoma – Week 6

The latest odds as of Friday morning:

• Moneyline: Texas (-650), Oklahoma (+450)

• Spread: Texas -14.5

• Over/Under: 50.5 points
  *odds courtesy of BetMGM

The early trading line of -8.5 got blown to smithereens, currently shuttling between -14 to -15 depending on the book. The total opened at 51 points with the industry average ticking slightly down to 50.5. Texas opened at -750 on the moneyline which has since improved to -600 in some spots, while Oklahoma has moved from +525 to +475.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks points could be hard to come by:
“Oklahoma has struggled to move the ball effectively all season, is starting a raw true freshman QB and is facing a rock solid Texas defense that ranks #1 nationally in yards per dropback. I’m backing the Under 17.5 points for the Sooners.”

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BetMGM College Football Insights: Heisman Trophy

Line movement (open, current)

• Ashton Jeanty +5000, +200

• Travis Hunter +3500, +300

• Cam Ward +20000, +500

• Jalen Milroe +800, +1100

• Quinn Ewers +800, +2000

• Jaxson Dart +2000, +2200

• Nico Iamaleava +1100, +3500

• Arch Manning +10000, +15000

Highest Ticket%

• Travis Hunter 16.9%

• Nico Iamaleava 10.4%

• Cam Ward 7.5%

Highest Handle%

• Travis Hunter 21.8%

• Cam Ward 9.7%

• Jalen Milroe 9.4%

Biggest Liability

• Travis Hunter

• Nico Iamaleava

• Cam Ward

Quarterback matchup for Texas @ Oklahoma

• Texas: Quinn Ewers entered the season as the entrenched starter, albeit an injury-prone one. He orchestrated a pair of dominant victories against Colorado State and Michigan before sustaining an injury in Week 3 vs. UTSA, giving way to starchild QB Arch Manning. Manning proceeded to throw four touchdowns in relief of Ewers against the Roadrunners and has started the last two games accruing 900 passing yards, a 9-to-2 ratio and a sparkling 90.4 PFF offensive grade. Ewers is apparently healthy and slated to start against the Sooners, but you have to wonder how long his leash will be with the specter of Arch Manning looming should he stumble out of the gate.

• Oklahoma: 2023 QB Dillon Gabriel moved onto Oregon as OU was ready to signal the beginning of the Jackson Arnold Era in Norman. Arnold threw four touchdowns against Temple Week 1 before surviving a bowling shoe ugly 16-12 contest against lowly Houston where OU posted a 16%-win expectancy. The final straw came when Arnold completed 7-of-16 passes for 54 yards and one interception against Tennessee, at which point HC Brent Venables turned to freshman QB Michael Hawkins. He led the Sooners to victory in his first start against Auburn throwing just 15 passes, completing 10 for 161 yards while leveraging his advanced athleticism to rush for 69 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries.

Betting trends & recent stats for Texas vs. Oklahoma

• OU receivers have produced 11.4 yards per reception thus far, the lowest mark among SEC wideouts. All three of Oklahoma’s opening day starting receivers have been banged up and are in danger of missing the game due to injury.

• Oklahoma QBs have thrown for 848 yards through five games, 19-worst in FBS. Texas has allowed 122 passing yards per game this year, the 2nd-best mark in FBS.

• Texas QB Quinn Ewers has completed 93% of his red zone pass attempts, which is #1 among P4 signal callers. Arch Manning has thrown for 20+ yards on 6 of his 20 3rd down pass attempts, the highest 3rd down explosive play rate in FBS.

• Texas true freshman WR Ryan Wingo has been targeted five times in close & late situations, which is tied for sixth-most among SEC receivers.

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