The 2024 Shy-Away 30: Barkley, Diggs lead list

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This isn’t necessarily a “do-not-draft” list. Every player becomes a value at some point. The problem is, these 30 selections are overheated. Whether it is too much injury optimism, too little committee skepticism or simply too much hype, they have red flags that suggest they will not return proper value on their ADPs. Will they automatically hurt your team? No. Will taking too many of them in the wrong rounds harm your championship odds? Almost certainly.

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Jahmyr Gibbs (Yahoo ADP: 13.5)

Gibbs has remained on the Round 1 borderline even as he’s missed the past few weeks with a hamstring injury. He’s expected to be ready for Week 1, but it’s his second hamstring strain of the summer. This would be a concern for any runner. It’s magnified with Gibbs because of another problem — David Montgomery. Gibbs never dislodged D-Mont at the goal line last season, meaning he remains No. 2 in the pecking order for the Lions’ highest-value touches. Gibbs was also disappointingly inefficient as a rookie pass catcher. That could improve as a sophomore. Something that could regress? Gibbs’ ridiculous efficiency when he did manage to snatch green-zone work away from Montgomery. To put it all in a nice tidy little package, it’s hard to spot the incentive for the Lions to abandon their two-back approach. That makes Gibbs mighty risky for someone frequently going in first rounds. — Patrick Daugherty

Anthony Richardson (Yahoo ADP: 46.3)

It’s not that I think Richardson is in for a bad sophomore season in Shane Steichen’s offense. He should be plenty fun for fantasy purposes with ample rushing upside and a red zone rushing role. I was very much in on Richardson last summer, when he was going as the 11th or 12th quarterback off the board. This year, I think fantasy managers can easily replace Richardson’s production with Jayden Daniels five or six rounds later, or even Justin Fields eight rounds later. There’s also A-Rich’s inability to stay on the field in 2023 that freaks me out enough to fade him at a lofty ADP. — Denny Carter

Saquon Barkley (Yahoo ADP: 13.1)

When I’m taking a running back at the top of the second round, I’m looking for high-value touches — goal-line carries plus targets — and elite efficiency. Does Barkley have either of these things? Since the Eagles have a free touchdown play with Jalen Hurts and the Tush Push, they ranked 26th in running back carries inside the three-yard line. Hurts hasn’t been one to throw to his backs, either. Last year, the Eagles’ backfield sat at 21st in targets per game. Barkley’s efficiency has left a lot to be desired in recent years, as well. Over the past three seasons, he has never finished higher than 30th in yards after contact per carry. His numbers will improve behind Philly’s elite offensive line, but the change of scenery needs to turn back time half a decade for Barkley to look like the superstar he once was. Parlaying a return to form, a change in goal-line tendencies, and an uptick in running back targets is too much to ask for inside the first 15 picks. — Kyle Dvorchak

Trevor Lawrence (Yahoo ADP: 122.6) 

Lawrence is going off the board as QB15, and that doesn’t sit right with me when you have options like Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff and Deshaun Watson behind him. The quick development of Brian Thomas should have a positive impact on Lawrence, but there’s just too many other quarterbacks I’ve found myself drafting instead. As QB17 last season, Lawrence wasn’t the stone cold worst option you could have, but it wasn’t until Week 11 where he had his first 20-point fantasy outing. You obviously could do worse than Lawrence, but I’m taking both Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams ahead of him. — Lawrence Jackson

Rhamondre Stevenson (Yahoo ADP: 64.0)

In his final year under Bill Belichick, Stevenson was just one of several Pats who disappointed fantasy managers. His RB27 finish in PPR leagues was largely due to a lack of scoring, which could against prove problematic for 2024. Newly-minted head coach Jerod Mayo inherits a roster that tied for dead last with the Panthers in both points per game (13.9) and red zone visits (36). There’s excitement around rookies Drake Maye and Ja’Lynn Polk, but this roster is anything but an offensive juggernaut. There’s an argument to be made that it could repeat as one of the worst units in the league. In PPR formats, Stevenson could scam his way to a few strong finishes, but this isn’t an offense built for fantasy success. Guys like James Conner, Zamir White, and Raheem Mostert are all going within a similar range as Stevenson. I’d prefer to take my shot on one of them. — Zach Krueger

Keenan Allen (Yahoo ADP: 81.9)

This isn’t just a “Keenan Allen is old” or “Keenan Allen is too heavy” knock. I’m just generally not a fan of his situation. Much like Davante Adams, Allen will turn 32 this year and has been on the injury report seemingly every week over the last few seasons. Yes, that is already baked into his price since he’s around WR30 in Yahoo drafts, but I still think his ADP is a bit too steep. The Bears offense could easily be better than the Chargers’ this season, but Allen was highly efficient last year thanks to a heavy dose of targets and a catchable target rate that ranked ninth among all receivers with 60 receptions or more. I know we like Caleb Williams’ talent, but I’m expecting Allen’s catchable target rate to fall in 2024 with a rookie under center. Plus, we have Shane Waldron coming over from Seattle, where he used multiple tight end sets at a high rate despite having three incredibly talented wide receivers. When you combine that with the increased competition Allen has, having to share targets with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, and Gerald Everett, I can’t get behind drafting him at this ADP, and I have him at WR35. — Eric Samulski

Mike Evans (Yahoo ADP: 24.7)

Mike Evans: This time it counts. Fading Evans has become something of an annual pastime for drafters who fancy themselves savvy. “Surely this will be the season Evans finally stops gaining 1,000 yards and scoring 10 touchdowns.” Then it never happens. Except this time it will. Ageless as Evans has been, it’s never good process to draft a 31-year-old wideout at their ceiling, and Evans is now frequently sneaking into the top 12 at receiver. This ignores the fact that not only is Evans another year older, he’s lost the straw that stirred the Bucs’ 2023 drink in Dave Canales. Evans was also even more boom-or-bust than usual last year. He finished just 18th in wide receiver receptions and had only three 100-yard performances. He was held below 50 yards six times and posted 70-or-fewer yards 10 times. Evans isn’t about to fade to irrelevance, but a return to top-12 glory is equally unlikely. — Patrick Daugherty

Stefon Diggs (Yahoo ADP: 46.9)

I’ve begun to come around on Diggs after seeing his preseason usage and how he gets into the ear of C.J. Stroud anytime Stroud throws the ball to another Houston pass catcher. It’s obvious Diggs isn’t going to accept a secondary or tertiary role in this Texans offense, even if he declined dramatically in 2023. While Diggs should start the season in two-receiver sets and see far more routes and targets than Tank Dell — Nico Collins’ role is not in question — I can see a scenario in which the much younger, much more electric Dell forces the Texans to increase his playing time at the expense of Diggs. Diggs should be a top-25 fantasy receiver, but there are better upside picks in that range of the draft. — Denny Carter

Dalton Kincaid (Yahoo ADP: 59.9)

Kincaid put together a solid rookie season at a position that rarely gives fantasy managers much first-year value. However, his best games were almost exclusively with Dawson Knox out of the lineup. Kincaid averaged 7.4 points per game in contests with Knox active versus 14.2 when Knox was out. Reports from camp have already indicated that Knox’s role isn’t going anywhere. Kincaid might be good enough to force the issue, but he wasn’t last year. The first-round pick averaged 1.46 yards per route run. That was worse than several players going behind him, including George Kittle, David Njoku, and Evan Engram. — Kyle Dvorchak

Puka Nacua (Yahoo ADP: 11.6)

Nacua put on a heck of a show as a rookie (105/1,486/6), but I’ve found myself not taking him at the end of the first round, or even the turn. I would prefer players like A.J. Brown and Garrett Wilson, as they have a clear hold as their team’s WR1. While Nacua is certainly an ascending player, Cooper Kupp will be back healthy and is being drafted as WR15. In Weeks 13-17 last season — the most important weeks for fantasy — Kupp out-targeted Nacua 44-43. Nacua was more productive in that span as he was WR3 in fantasy to Kupp’s WR7, but the gap wasn’t big enough to confirm why they are being drafted the way they are this season. — Lawrence Jackson

Calvin Ridley (Yahoo ADP: 93.4)

2023 wasn’t an awful return for Ridley, who ranked eighth amongst all receivers in total air yards (1,771) and averaged 13.4 yards per catch. He finished the year as the WR28 in fantasy points per game (13.5) and joined the Titans on a one-year deal earlier this offseason, which has the potential to hurt his fantasy outlook for multiple reasons. For starters, Ridley now has to split targets with DeAndre Hopkins, who had a 29 percent target share last season on 138 looks. He’s also about to be on the receiving end of passes from Will Levis, who, among 33 quarterbacks (min. 250 dropbacks) last season, ranked 33rd in adjusted completion percent (70.1) and 31st in catchable pass rate (71.0 percent) per FantasyPoints.com. New coach Brian Callahan hopes to elevate Levis’ game in his first full season at the helm, but the sophomore is a far cry from the quarterback Callahan had in Cincinnati. Ridley is going in the range of Chris Godwin, Hollywood Brown, Rashee Rice, and Jayden Reed, who are all younger and have better quarterbacks leading them. — Zach Krueger

C.J. Stroud (Yahoo ADP: 42.4)

This is not a knock on Stroud as a player, just an acknowledgment that I can’t select him at pick 42 as QB5. As a rookie, Stroud was great, averaging 18.7 fantasy points per game, which was QB10 on a per-game basis, behind guys like Kyler Murray and Joe Flacco, who didn’t play full seasons (so let’s call it QB8). He now gets Stefon Diggs in his WR corps and another year in the NFL so we should expect improvement. However, from a strictly fantasy perspective, the fact that Stroud doesn’t run the ball (just 167 yards on the ground in 2023) means he has little margin for error through the air if he wants to meet this draft cost. I just can’t use pick 42 on a QB with no rushing upside when I can wait multiple rounds and take Kyler or Jayden Daniels, who could match Stroud’s ceiling with their legs. — Eric Samulski

Cooper Kupp (Yahoo ADP: 34.9)

At one point a fourth- or fifth-round pick, Kupp has crept back into the third-round range. In some ways it’s understandable as Kupp enjoys a healthy summer while Puka Nacua rehabs a knee injury. In others, it’s wishful thinking for a 31-year-old who hasn’t been the same since his historic 2021. It’s not just the 21 games Kupp’s injuries have cost him over the past two years. It’s also the toll they’ve taken when he’s actually played. Kupp’s yards per route run tumbled all the way to 1.77 last season, good for a disappointing 34th amongst wideouts. If you’re going to chase something, you might as well chase a ceiling as theoretically high as Kupp’s, but the reality is he’s spent almost as much of his career injured as healthy and has had two 1,000-yard seasons in seven years. In the range Kupp is going in fantasy drafts, there are better floor/ceiling combo picks like DK Metcalf, DJ Moore and Jaylen Waddle. — Patrick Daugherty

Travis Etienne (Yahoo ADP: 22.1)

Jags coaches, including Doug Pederson, have told anyone who will listen this offseason that the team desperately does not want to give another massive workload to Etienne a year after he handled a whopping 325 touches as the centerpiece of Jacksonville’s offense. The team has talked up second-year RB Tank Bigsby, who has reportedly performed well in summer practices after being the league’s worst running back in 2023. Like most of the players on this list, Etienne isn’t being wildly misvalued. I am cautious about making him the 10th back off the board with Bigsby likely to take on a larger role, including, perhaps, all-important goal line work. Etienne, despite the workhorse role in 2023, had a meager 15 inside-the-10 carries over 17 games. — Denny Carter

Alvin Kamara (Yahoo ADP: 49.5)

As a runner, Kamara appears to be cooked. He averaged 2.51 yards after contact per carry last year. That was behind the likes of Ezekiel Elliott and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He has averaged fewer yards after contact in four consecutive seasons. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, he has posted a negative rush yards over expected in three consecutive years. To his credit, 2023 Kamara was still efficient as a receiver by running back standards. The biggest boon for his fantasy production was a league-high 5.8 receptions per game. While he may have still had juice as a pass-catcher, at 5.4 yards per target, throwing to Kamara was one of the least effective ways for the Saints to move the ball. An offense built on running back targets is doomed to fail, and the Saints did just that last year. If new OC Klint Kubiak moves the team away from running back check-downs, Kamara’s PPR house of cards will collapse. — Kyle Dvorchak

Tony Pollard (Yahoo ADP: 92.3)

What the Titans showed this preseason is clear: They’ll run with a 50/50 split between Pollard and Tyjae Spears. I’ll simply take the more skilled back in Spears (being drafted as RB33) a couple of rounds later than his running mate (Pollard, who’s being drafted as RB29). Pollard averaged 4.3 yards per touch last season to Spears’ 5.5 despite playing in a much more high-powered offense in Dallas. Both saw action with the Titans’ first-team preseason O, with Spears finishing with the goal-line touchdown carry. While Pollard does work better in the committee as opposed to being a lead back, Spears’ efficiency as a runner (4.5 YPC last season) and a receiver (52/385/1 in 2023) will make him the more valued pick in 2024. — Lawrence Jackson

Joe Mixon (Yahoo ADP: 37.6)

Ever the inefficient bell cow, Mixon has finished as a top-12 PPR back in each of the past four seasons while riding a 34 percent opportunity share over that span. Now entering his age-28 campaign, Mixon ranked 131st amongst runners in fantasy points over expected at -9.9 and will be running behind a Texans line that ranked 25th in yards before contact per attempt (1.17) and 20th in PFF run-blocking grades. Mixon is nearing the age cliff for running backs and coming off the board as the RB14 in re-draft leagues. He was also dealing with some kind of soft-tissue injury earlier in training camp and missed nearly three weeks of practice before returning. Mixon’s ADP feels closer to his ceiling than his floor at this point, making him a risky bet even if the volume is there. — Zach Krueger

Davante Adams (Yahoo ADP: 21.4)

I wrote about Adams in my article on catchable targets and it was not a glowing endorsement. He ranked 40th in catchable target rate amongst the 50 wide receivers who caught at least 60 passes last season. While Gardner Minshew is taking over for Aidan O’Connell at quarterback, that’s not exactly a major upgrade when it comes to accuracy. In 2023, Minshew ranked 22nd in EPA per dropback to O’Connell’s 25th. Minshew ranked 31st in completion percentage over expected. O’Connell, 32nd. Michael Pittman Jr. had a higher catchable target rate while playing with Minshew last year than Adams did with O’Connell, but Adams’ aDOT was 11.1 while Pittman Jr. was at 8.1. Since Minshew ranked 23rd among 32 quarterbacks in deep ball catchable pass rate, those deeper looks may not lead to more success for Adams in 2024. Add to that the fact that Adams will turn 32 years old — which has historically led to major declines in WR production — and it’s hard to draft Adams as anything more than an upside WR2 in fantasy football instead of WR10 with an ADP of 21st overall. — Eric Samulski

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Tank Dell (Yahoo ADP: 64.1)

Dell was something rare as a rookie — a third-round pick who actually delivered on endless summer hype. The problem came late, when he delivered on something else: Pre-draft fears his 5-foot-8, 165-pound frame would leave him vulnerable to injury. It’s true that Dell should have never even been in the game blocking on the goal-line rush that broke his leg, but then again … this is the NFL. These things happen. Beyond the injury is an even bigger concern for 2024. Dell is a No. 3 receiver being drafted as a WR2. Nico Collins was a 2023 alpha now accompanied by longtime No. 1 Stefon Diggs. Dell has the profile of a jack-in-the-box big-play machine, but fighting for looks behind Collins and Diggs is a hard way to make a WR2 living. Too hard for my money when I’m on the clock in the fifth or sixth round. — Patrick Daugherty

Aaron Jones (Yahoo ADP: 53.0)

Selecting Jones as a top-20 runner the year after the 30-year-old back sustained knee, thigh, and hamstring injuries makes no sense to me. Sure, Jones was good when healthy, as he’s always been. In a pass-first Vikings offense with Ty Chandler nipping at his heels on the depth chart, I’m fading Jones unless he drops into the RB25-28 range. Chandler was quietly good in a lot of important running back metrics, as I wrote about recently, and has a real shot at seizing the No. 1 back role should Jones again falter or struggle through injuries. — Denny Carter

Rachaad White (Yahoo ADP: 38.3)

Lost in the “running backs don’t matter” discourse is the fact that most breakout backs are impressively efficient. To no one’s surprise, the best fantasy runners are often the best real-life ones, too. Last year, Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, Raheem Mostert, and De’Von Achane were the top four backs in half-PPR points per game. Pro Football Focus’s rushing grades had those exact four backs as the best four in the league (in a different order). The worst finish among the four in yards after contact per carry was Williams at No. 11 overall. Rachaad White finished outside the top 40 in both metrics. He was also dreadfully inefficient as a rookie. As a pass catcher, White has been decent, but his 1.15 career yards per route is far from elite. White is a passing-down specialist who has been miscast as a three-down back in the NFL. I don’t see him holding onto the role much longer. — Kyle Dvorchak

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Yahoo ADP: 118.0)

The thing about drafting JSN is, what’s changed within the offense to make him a value in 2024? Aside from him having a season under his belt, not much. Unless Tyler Lockett—who had a team-leading 122 targets last season — is moved (or injured), then I don’t see how JSN reaches his full potential in year two. JSN is the younger option with much more upside so it’s understandable, but his seventh round ADP compared to Lockett’s 10th round ADP has me wanting to choose the latter. Much like the Texans, the Seahawks have a nice trio of receivers who could all have their games. I’d feel a lot better with JSN as my WR4 or WR5 as opposed to my WR3. — Lawrence Jackson

Isiah Pacheco (Yahoo ADP: 19.9)

In his second year in the league, Pacheco rushed for a solid 935 yards and seven touchdowns while catching another 44/244/2 as a receiver. The former seventh-round pick also enjoyed a 30 percent opportunity share, which ranked 15th amongst his peers at the position. In PPR leagues, Pacheco finished as the RB14 in fantasy points per game and now finds himself in a Chiefs offense that appears ready to ramp up its passing game in 2024. He also saw brutal usage down near the goal line, handling just nine touches inside the five-yard line, which ranked 25th amongst running backs, per Pro Football Focus. It’s a tough look for a guy playing in one of the top offenses in the league. Pacheco is currently going as the RB9 in Yahoo drafts, and his 19.9 ADP is a full round or two earlier than it is on several other sites. Pacheco’s fantasy upside could skyrocket if the Chiefs ever pump up his work around the end zone, but that seems unlikely considering Patrick Mahomes’ mastery of the green zone. — Zach Krueger

Michael Pittman (Yahoo ADP: 44.3)

This is another situation where I don’t hate the player but can’t get behind the cost. Right now, Pittman’s ADP has him around WR25. Last year, Pittman finished as WR27 on a per-game basis with 8.8 PPR points per game. So is the argument now that Pittman will be better because Anthony Richardson is at quarterback? I like Richardson for fantasy purposes, but I’m not sure how advanced he is as a passer. I also think the Colts will be throwing the ball less with Jonathan Taylor and Richardson both healthy. In the four games Richardson played last year, Pittman averaged 7.5 PPR points per game, which was good for WR38. That’s a small sample size, but it’s the one we have to work with. Overall, Pittman had a solid 72.4% catchable pass rate last year with Gardner Minshew under center, so I just don’t buy the narrative that he finds himself in a much better situation as a pass-catcher in 2024, especially since the Colts added Adonai Mitchell with an early pick in the draft and should get a better season from Josh Downs when he returns from his ankle injury. I have Pittman WR29 and would rather take Tee Higgins or Diontae Johnson over him. — Eric Samulski

Raheem Mostert (Yahoo ADP: 66.6)

There has, understandably, been a lot of summer chatter about De’Von Achane’s risk at the 2/3 turn. What about Mostert in the fifth or sixth? The 32-year-old, who entered 2023 with 14 career rushing scores, somehow led the league with 18 last season. The goal-line was a profitable place to be in Mike McDaniel’s offense. But for the second straight year Mostert not only stayed abnormally healthy by his standards, he faded down the stretch. Mostert averaged over a yard less per carry in games 9-17, with his YPC falling below 4.0 after December 1. In 2022 the story wasn’t declining efficiency but workloads. It seems like Mostert can either be efficient or used heavily, but not both. Instead of betting on a third straight healthy campaign for a running back living on borrowed time in terms of a typical career arc, fantasy managers should embrace Achane’s far greater overall upside instead of chasing what was probably an outlier touchdown rate from Mostert. — Patrick Daugherty

Christian Kirk (Yahoo ADP: 81.0)

Kirk’s redraft ADP is not egregious by any means. I was drafting him heavily in the spring when I (wrongly) assumed he would be Jacksonville’s clear-cut WR1 after Calvin Ridley’s departure. But Kirk, much like last preseason, has been deployed as a rotational player this summer. It seems the Jaguars are intent on using Kirk strictly as a slot guy, with Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas on the boundary. And in an offense that ranked 22nd in three-wideout sets last season, Kirk’s route participation could leave a lot to desire. I think every Jags receiver is going to be maddeningly inconsistent in 2024. — Denny Carter

Brandin Cooks (Yahoo ADP: 129.9)

Cooks ran insatiably hot on touchdowns in 2024, logging the second-highest TD rate (9.9 percent) of any wide receiver with over 50 targets. Over the past decade, receivers who have a touchdown rate of over nine percent see that number tumble to 5.8 percent in the upcoming season. The bigger issue is that Cooks’ fluky touchdown projection masked an otherwise awful season. He ranked 68th in yards per route run (1.19) despite the Cowboys running a hyper-efficient passing attack that desperately needed a second option to emerge at wide receiver. Soon to be 31, Cooks is showing all of the signs of a player who has hit the age cliff. — Kyle Dvorchak

Cole Kmet (Yahoo ADP: 129.3)

Kmet looks to be locked in a “tight end by committee” in the new Bears’ offense with Gerald Everett. Both have worked with the first-team offense this preseason and been targeted by Caleb Williams. All of that aside, there’s too many mouths to feed now that the Bears actually have weapons on offense. Where would Kmet land in that pecking order? Third at best (behind Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore), but the reality is with Rome Odunze in town and D’Andre Swift set to get his share, Kmet is looking like a streaming fantasy target at best. — Lawrence Jackson

Gus Edwards (Yahoo ADP: 116.8)

Edwards plunged his way into the end zone a career-high 13 times last season. He also led all running backs with 23 carries inside the five-yard line while rushing for 810 yards on 198 carries. It was a career year for Edwards, who spent all five years of his career with the Ravens. Unfortunately, the Ravens pivoted off Edwards down the stretch. In his final nine regular season games, Edwards averaged just 10.3 rushes and 42.7 rush yards per game and saw only 13 carries for 60 yards in their two playoff appearances. Edwards saw 40.8 percent of his fantasy production come from touchdowns and never rushed for more than 80 yards in a game. Now reunited with J.K. Dobbins in Los Angeles, Edwards is once again expected to play in a split and could be asked to play more of a short-yardage and goal-line role. When he gets in the end zone, Edwards has been a nice value for fantasy managers. However, he finished as an RB3 or worse in 53 percent of his games last season, making him a true boom-or-bust option for fantasy managers every week he’s in their lineup. — Zach Krueger

Zamir White (Yahoo ADP: 70.6)

I think that White’s ADP will change in the coming weeks, but as of August 21, he is going at pick 71 in Yahoo drafts as RB23. But here’s the thing: He doesn’t even seem like a lock to be the clear RB1 on his own team. Through the first two preseason games, White and Alexander Mattison have played the same number of drives. Obviously, we don’t want to overreact too much to preseason snap counts, but the Raiders did sign Mattison this offseason and are now giving him an equal workload to White, so that feels like a bit of a split backfield on a bad offense. That’s not ideal. Combine that with the fact that White averaged 13.9 PPR points in his four starts at the end of last season and was not much of a factor in the passing game, and it’s hard to get excited about starting him in most formats. I have him as my RB34 right now behind Chase Brown, Tyjae Spears, and Tony Pollard. — Eric Samulski