The 2025 Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon – Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, betting trends and stats

Despite a rather tumultuous pair of games against Idaho and Boise State (37-34) to open the season, Oregon (13-0) rolled through their Big Ten schedule to finish the regular season as the B10 Conference Champions in their inaugural campaign. The Ducks’ 2nd-ranked SP+ offense ranks Top 10 nationally in success rate, EPA/play and negative play rate. In spite of ruthless efficiency metrics, Oregon isn’t quite as explosive as their 2023 version, ranking 81st in passes of 20+ yards (16%) and 110th in yards per successful rush (8.7). Defensively their secondary is superb, ranking 5th in pass success rate allowed (33.5%) and 9th in EPA/dropback. However, OU has been somewhat vulnerable on the ground ranking 89th in EPA/rush and 81st in yards per successful rush.

Ohio State’s (10-2) lethal offense ranks Top 10 on each side of the ball in success rate, EPA/play and marginal efficiency. The main areas of weakness on offense are the Ohio State O-line’s ability to handle extra rushers, ranking 78th with a 9.2% blitz down sack rate, and a concerning 10.1% blown run block rate that ranks 94th nationally. Defensively OSU is elite, ranking #1 overall in FBS according to SP+. The Buckeyes’ secondary is facing the fifth-fewest deep passes in the country, with just 9.4% of passes occurring 20+ yards downfield. OSU’s tenacious defensive line ranks 5th nationally with a 43.4% pressure rate and 2nd with a crisp 9.8%% sack rate, so opposing quarterbacks rarely had enough time to sit back and wait for deep routes to develop. The Buckeyes are allowing a somewhat elevated 60.1% completion rate (63rd) but still rank 3rd overall in EPA/dropback so allowing short completions has not hurt them.

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

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Game Details and How to watch the Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State

· Date: Wednesday, January 1st, 2025
· Time: 5:00 PM EST
· Site: Rose Bowl
· City: Pasadena, CA
· TV/Streaming: ESPN

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Game odds for the Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State:

*odds courtesy of BetMGM

• Moneyline: Ohio State (-140), Oregon (+115)

• Spread: Ohio State (-2.5)

• Over/Under: 54.5 points

The spread opened Oregon -1.5 in early trading but quickly crossed over and is now trading at a consensus line of -2.5. The OSU moneyline is currently showing a best price of -132 while Oregon is pretty firm at +115 right now. The initial game total of 53.5 is steadily rising and up to 55.5 in some spots.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“The game total is set at 54.5 points, with Oregon’s team total sitting at a very reasonable 26.5 points. With their last contest ending at 32-31, and Oregon scoring at least 31 points in 11 of their last 12 games, with the lone exception being a 16-13 slog against @Wisconsin. I think Oregon comfortably clears their 26.5 team total in a competitive back-and-forth game.”

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.

Quarterback matchup for the Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State

• Oregon: Dillon Gabriel is in the midst of his sixth collegiate campaign and has accrued an impressive 18,430 passing yards and 153-to-32 ratio over his standout career. He is completing 72.6% of his throws (3rd nationally) for 8.7 YPA and a 28-to-6 ratio for the still undefeated Ducks, but his 6.9 ADOT is the lowest average target depth among 99 qualifying signal callers. The short-range passing game emphasis accounts for Oregon’s uncharacteristically low 8.7 yards per successful rush that ranks 110th in FBS. Oregon is currently sporting a crisp 73.2% passing completion rate (2nd in FBS).

• Ohio State: Will Howard spent his first four collegiate seasons running the Kansas State offense before transferring to Columbus this offseason. The former Wildcat now leads OSU’s dominant offense that is defeating their opponents by an average of 26.8 points per game, which is the highest win differential in the  nation. He’s completing a superb 72.9% of his throws (2nd in FBS) and is working with future first-round NFL Draft wideouts in Emeka Egbuka and generational freshman Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes’ ruthlessly efficient pass attack ranks 3rd in success rate (53.7%) and 7th in yards per dropback (8.2) despite throwing just 9.9% of their passes 20+ yards downfield (123rd). Howard’s 84.2 PFF passing grade ranks 13th among power conference signal callers and represents the best mark of his five-year career, with the previous high being 72.7.

Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State – Trends & Stats

• Oregon’s secondary has been at their best when the game is on the line, allowing just 2 first downs on 28 targets in close & late situations, the lowest completion rate allowed among P4 programs.

• Oregon has tackled opponents for a loss on 20 of 102 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season, 16th-best in FBS.

• Oregon has allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% on 3rd and short this season, tops in the Big Ten.

• Oregon WRs have caught 189 of 247 passes this season, the highest rate among power conference teams.

• Oregon is 2-5 (.286) against the spread when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season, 11th-worst among Power Conference Teams. (Average: .450)

• Oregon is 15-7 (.652) against the spread when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season, 32nd-best in FBS. (Average: .563)

• Ohio State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.5% of 344 attempts this season, 28th-best among FBS offenses. Oregon’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.9% of attempts this season, 23rd-best among FBS defenses.

• Ohio State’s QBs have thrown for 3,369 passing yards in 13 games this season, 32nd-best among FBS teams. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 175.7 passing yards per game this season, 3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.

• TreVeyon Henderson has rushed for 10 or more yards on 29 of his 118 carries this season, best among FBS running backs. He is also averaging 8.6 yards per 4th quarter scrimmage touch, which leads the nation.

• Ohio State opponents have averaged 54.2 Passing Attempts per TD since the 2023 season (best in FBS).

• Ohio State has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 33 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season, tied for worst among power conference Teams with Rutgers (0-30).

• Ohio State is 7-8 (.412) against the spread when having a turnover margin within one of their opponent since the 2023 season, 36th-worst in FBS. (Average: .481)

• Games involving the Buckeyes have gone under in 72% of their games when favorites since the 2023 season, 4th-best among Power Conference Teams. (Average: 50%)

Most bet games (tickets)
1.     Notre Dame-Georgia
2.     Penn State-Boise State
3.     Texas-Arizona State
4.     Ohio State-Oregon

Most bet teams (tickets)
1.     Georgia -1.5
2.     Penn State -10.5
3.     Oregon +2.5
4.     Texas -13.5

Most bet teams (handle)
1.     Georgia -1.5
2.     Penn State -10.5
3.     Texas -13.5
4.     Ohio State -2.5

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