The AllState Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Georgia – prediction, odds, QB matchup, trends and recent stats

Georgia (11-2) steamrolled Clemson 34-3 in the season opener before squeezing out a coin-flip 13-12 win over Kentucky to open 3-0. An interception-laden first half for QB Carson Beck caused their first loss to Alabama in Week 4, but UGA rebounded to soundly defeat Texas in Austin 30-15 despite a calamity-filled three interception performance by QB Carson Beck. The Dawgs overcame a first half rally from Florida to secure a 34-20 victory before suffering through a disappointing 28-10 loss to @Ole Miss that was arguably their worst performance all year. Georgia’s once-storied rushing attack pales in comparison to what we’ve come to expect from HC Kirby Smart-led teams, ranking a subdued 118th in yards per successful rush (8.5 yards) to go with 2.44 YAC (90th). One of the more pass-heavy Power Four programs, the Bulldogs rank 123rd in standard downs run rate (48.7%) and 117th in passing down run percentage (25.2%). Defensively UGA ranks 11th in SP+ but has been beatable in the trenches (80th in power success rate/91st stuff rate) and is lacking playmaking from their back line (129th in DB havoc rate).

Notre Dame (12-1) has bounced back resoundingly from a gut-punch Week 2 loss at the hands of 7-5 MAC program Northern Illinois, winning 10 straight games to punch their ticket to the CFP Playoff. The Irish’s soft 66th ranked schedule that includes signature wins over Texas A&M, Louisville and USC is the main criticism from their detractors. To their credit, all of Notre Dame’s victories have come by at least 10 points or more with the exception of a 31-24 win over Louisville, so they’re certainly handling business. Their 10+ point win trend extended into the College Football Playoff’s first round, with ND dispatching Indiana 27-17. Though two NFL-caliber tackles departed from last year’s offensive line, they haven’t lost a step in the run game ranking 2nd in EPA/rush while averaging 6.8 yards per attempt and a sensational 3.83 yards after contact average that also ranks 2nd in FBS. Their secondary is certifiably elite, ranking 1st nationally in passing success rate (29.6%), EPA/dropback and completion rate allowed (48.8%). Their run defense has some issues, ranking 128th in stuff rate and 63rd in success rate, but still check in at a commendable 20th nationally in EPA/rush.

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Game Details and How to watch the AllState Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Notre Dame

· Date: Wednesday, January 1, 2024
· Time: 8:45 PM EST
· Site: Caesar’s Superdome
· City: New Orleans, LA
· TV/Streaming: ESPN

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Game odds for Notre Dame vs. Georgia

*odds courtesy of BetMGM

• Moneyline: Notre Dame (-300), Indiana (+240)

• Spread: Notre Dame (-1.5)

• Over/Under: 50.5 points

The spread opened with Georgia favored -1/-115 despite QB Carson Beck being questionable to play, with the market now showing a high of -2/-130 at BetESPN. There hasn’t been much movement on the game total of 44.5, but that could rise if Beck is confirmed to be playing, so keep an eye on injury speculation heading into game day.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Notre Dame has cleared their very reasonable 20.5 Team Total in every game except for one this season, their 16-14 Week 2 upset at the hands of NIU. Since then, QB Riley Leonard and RB Jeremiyah Love has this offense rolling along having scored at least 31 points against every Power Conference team they’ve faced. I think the Irish are going to clear their 20.5 team total line.”

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.

The AllState Sugar Bowl: Quarterback Matchup for Georgia vs. Notre Dame

• Georgia: QB Carson Beck led all returning FBS signal callers with 3,949 passing yards and ranked 2nd with a sterling 91.5 PFF offensive grade. Beck emerged as a preseason Heisman front-runner who opened at 4-to-1 odds to win college football’s most coveted prize. His 81.2 offensive grade and 12 interceptions are concerning, as is Beck’s dirt-low 30th percentile passing grade when facing pressure. In spite of his elevated interception rate, the fourth-year field general still threw 28 touchdown passes which is the fifth highest mark among P4 quarterbacks. If he cannot play, former four-star recruit (rated 110th nationally, QB7 in 2022) Gunner Stockton will take the reins.

• Notre Dame: QB Riley Leonard spent his first three seasons at Duke, breaking out in 2022 but regressing in 2023 due to a nagging ankle injury that hampered his productivity, completing just 57% of his throws with a 3-to-3 ratio. Now completely healthy, Leonard is completing 66.6% of his throws with a 17-to-6 ratio and an 84.1 PFF offensive grade. His dual-threat mobility allows Leonard to evade the rush masterfully, as is evidenced by his excellent 12% pressure-to-sack rate (8th in P4) and three consecutive seasons with a rushing grade in the 80th% or higher. Leonard’s 15-to-7 big time throw-to-turnover worthy play rate is a strong ratio despite throwing just 10.7% of his passes 20+ yards downfield.

Notre Dame vs. Georgia: Betting Trends & Recent Stats

• Notre Dame DB Xavier Watts has intercepted 13 passes since the 2023 season, the most among FBS defensive players.

• Notre Dame has allowed a Completion rate of 51% since the 2023 season, the top mark in FBS. The Irish have also allowed just 159.8 receiving yards per game since the 2023 season, 2nd-best in FBS.

• Jeremiyah Love has averaged 7.7 yards from scrimmage per touch this season, 4th-best among FBS Running Backs.

• Riley Leonard has rushed for 12 TDs in the Red Zone this season, tied for 2nd-most among power conference quarterbacks.

• Notre Dame is 13-1 (.867) against the spread when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season, 4th-best among Power Conference Teams. (Average: .576.) Notre Dame is also 18-5 (.750) against the spread when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since 2023, 2nd-best in FBS. (Average: .534)

• Notre Dame has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 36 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season, tied for worst in FBS.

• Notre Dame are undefeated (9-0) against the spread when making 7 or more explosive plays this season, best in FBS. (Average: .539)

• Georgia’s offensive line ranks 3rd nationally with a 22.5% pressure rate allowed, and 28th with a 4% sack rate. However, they also rank 83rd allowing a 20% sacks-per-pressure rate, so the few pressures they allow are getting home at an elevated ratio.

• Georgia is winless (0-6) against the spread when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season, tied for worst among power conference programs. (Average: .314)

• Georgia has allowed opponents to catch just 15 of 39 passes in the Red Zone this season, 7th-best in FBS.

• Peyton Woodring has made 96% of extra point and field goal attempts since the 2023 season, 6th-best among FBS Kickers.

• Notre Dame’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.1% of 356 attempts this season, 21st-worst among FBS offenses. Georgia’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.8% of attempts this season, 3rd-best among SEC defenses.

• Georgia Skill Players have fumbled 6 times in the 4th quarter this season, tied for most among power conference teams.

• Georgia is 7-17 (.280) against the spread when favorites since the 2023 season, 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams. (Average: .487)

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BetMGM College Football Highlights: The Playoffs

Most bet games (tickets)
1.     Notre Dame-Georgia
2.     Penn State-Boise State
3.     Texas-Arizona State
4.     Ohio State-Oregon

Most bet teams (tickets)
1.     Georgia -1.5
2.     Penn State -10.5
3.     Oregon +2.5
4.     Texas -13.5

Most bet teams (handle)
1.     Georgia -1.5
2.     Penn State -10.5
3.     Texas -13.5
4.     Ohio State -2.5

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