The Fantasy Basketball Vibe Check: 2 breakout candidates going in opposite directions

Welcome to the Fantasy Vibe Check, your place to vent about the highs, lows and head-scratchers from the NBA and fantasy basketball. We don’t have a lot of data to reference when addressing the wins or airing of grievances, but it’s been one week, and that’s enough to speak on a few players and their performances.

Check out who I’m vibing with, and let me know in the comments or @DanTitus about what’s got you hyped, mad and curious when it comes to fantasy basketball.

🙌 I’m hyped about Cam Thomas getting superstar treatment

Thomas is emerging as one of the top scorers in the league. He was one of my favorite breakouts coming into the season because of the sheer opportunity as the primary offensive threat for a rebuilding Nets squad. Through three games, no one anticipated him being 12th in per-game value in nine-category formats or 18th in points leagues (43.98 fantasy points per game).

What the numbers say

Thomas’ 32% usage is in the top 10 in the NBA through the first week of the season. Additionally, Thomas’ shot volume is rising; he’s attempting over 21 shots per game and hitting them at a 48% clip through three games. As a part of that, he’s increased his 3-point attempts and is going to the line close to seven times per game. The efficiency gains are the primary drivers of Thomas’ fantasy success thus far, so the bigger question is if it can hold.

Well, for one, I’m encouraged by the coach-speak. There’s been no bigger advocate for helping Thomas to mature as a well-rounded and efficient player than HC Jordi Fernández:

Also, I’ll pay close attention to whether the Nets initiate more offense through Thomas with Ben Simmons ruled out on Tuesday. So far, each lineup that Thomas and Simmons have played together for more than five minutes has resulted in a negative plus-minus and a -4.2 net rating, according to Pivot Fade. Thomas’ playmaking is the area of improvement that I was most hyped about coming into the season, so if Simmons’ on-ball usage can go to Thomas more often, it’ll raise Thomas’ ceiling beyond a high-volume scorer. Either way, if you drafted Thomas in the mid-rounds, you’re getting exceptional ROI.

😡 I’m mad about Amen Thompson’s regression

Continuing on the theme of assessing breakouts, Thompson’s is going differently than expected. He averaged 12.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.8 stocks with 55/40/44 shooting splits in 22.8 minutes per game in a promising preseason. Through four regular-season games, everything dropped except for his free throw percentage (76%). Thompson is trending down as fantasy managers made him one of the more popular drops Tuesday.

What the numbers say

Thompson’s biggest fantasy obstacles have been inefficient shooting, turnovers and lack of stocks. I was high on Thompson because even if he maintained a bench role at 20 minutes per game, he was still a rosterable player, given his per-minute production.

Let’s get to the shooting. I’m not as concerned by the drop in efficiency because he’s taking good shots (for the most part). Thompson is 73rd percentile in the frequency of attempts on corner 3s and 85th percentile in the frequency of attempts in the paint. That’s how Thompson will maximize his offensive output — easy buckets near the rim and being a willing corner threat. We saw an improved jump shot and confidence from the corner Monday night.

Regarding the turnovers, he gave up the ball eight times against Memphis and three times versus San Antonio. If he continues committing three turnovers per game, he’ll get benched. Given his defensive upside, I don’t see that happening, so we can chalk this up to some early-season mistakes.

Defensively, Thompson’s steal rate is down from last season but his block rate is pacing to last year’s production. Obviously he’ll need more than three stocks in four games to be rosterable, but I’d continue to hold as the upside remains high. If the preseason was any indication, the second-year pro is in a slump but still has a substantial upside with an improved jumper in addition to his plus-rebounding at his position and defensive abilities.

🤔 I’m curious about what’s really going on with Joel Embiid

The only update we’ve received about Joel Embiid have been:

What the #%^!

I have nothing. I’m still wondering why the Sixers were cool with Embiid playing in the Paris Olympics after laboring through so many injuries last year and throughout the postseason. If the priority is to stay healthy, why are you not using the summer to rest and rehabilitate? Embiid reportedly lost a good amount of weight (20-30 pounds — a good thing), but we’re one week into the NBA season, and we have yet to hear a peep about a potential return for their star player.

Are they saving him from himself? Shams Charania reported that Embiid hasn’t scrimmaged since the Olympics and yet, there’s been no reported injuries linked to Embiid like Kawhi Leonard or Mark Williams, who are also out indefinitely and not being investigated by the NBA.

Is he in game shape? What’s the ramp-up process looking like? All we’ve heard is that he’s progressing. Unfortunately, this is the risk fantasy managers took when drafting Embiid. We know he’s not playing back-to-back. We know he’ll be load-managed. However, this holding pattern is brutal, and fantasy managers need to understand where he stands health-wise. Time will tell.