The Fantasy Football Numbers Do Lie: Josh Downs’ play this year far exceeds his stat line

A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.

Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.

Josh Downs’ 58.5 receiving yards per game are a lie

Downs ranks 32nd in receiving yards per game, but he gets a major fantasy boost with the Colts switching to Joe Flacco. Downs ranks first in catchable targets per game (9.0) and fourth in yards per route run with Flacco this season. He’s also been fantasy’s WR5.

Downs is a legit route runner who’s also a Reception Perception favorite. He ranks 13th in ESPN’s Open Score despite returning from a high-ankle sprain earlier this season. Indy receivers are about to see improved intermediate accuracy and increased volume; the Colts have averaged 17 more passes during games Flacco has started this season. He gets a pass-funnel Vikings defense this week that’s allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this year and 12 TD passes over the last four games. Downs missed Wednesday’s practice, but it was likely a rest day after he was able to play through his toe injury last week.

I have Downs as a top-15 WR this week.

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Baker Mayfield’s 21 touchdown passes are a lie

Mayfield has been fantastic this season, and he leads the league by four TD passes. But regression is coming, especially with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sidelined. Mayfield’s 7.4% TD rate is a hair off the league lead and well above his career mark of 4.9%. He’s unquestionably benefitting from throwing frequently inside the 10, but he’s also running incredibly hot; Mayfield’s attempted just five more red zone passes than Matthew Stafford, who has 14 fewer TD passes. Tampa Bay has scored a touchdown on 68% of its red-zone opportunities this season, ranking third in the NFL.

Evans is likely out until at least Week 12, and Godwin is lost for the regular season, leaving Cade Otton as his top pass catcher. Mayfield was able to overcome missing his star wideouts last week, but his next matchup in Kansas City is far tougher; the Buccaneers have this week’s lowest implied team total (17.5 points) against a Chiefs defense with the third-highest pressure rate. Mayfield will shatter his career high in touchdown passes this season, but his scorching pace is sure to drop moving forward.

Chris Olave’s WR46 rank is a lie

Olave’s fantasy scoring per game is tied with Quentin Johnston and Jalen Tolbert this season, but his fantasy arrow is pointing up. He saw 14 targets returning from injury last week, leading the league in WOPR against a Chargers secondary that hadn’t previously allowed any WR to record eight targets or 100 yards in any game this season. Olave saw a 37% target share and a 40.6% first-read target rate during his first game without Rashid Shaheed this season. Shaheed vacates the eighth-most air yards in the league, and New Orleans is extremely thin at WR with Bub Means and Cedric Wilson also injured.

Moreover, Derek Carr is expected back this week. He’s a significant upgrade over Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, who posted completion percentages over expectation in the third and 10th percentiles last week. The Saints have a healthy projected point total (26.5) against a Panthers defense yielding an NFL-high 17 touchdown passes. Carolina also has a league-low pressure rate, and Carr has been twice as likely to target Olave when not pressured.

Olave is the WR46 so far this season, but he’s my WR12 this week.

Tyreek Hill’s WR42 rank is a lie

Hill has been a major fantasy disappointment, but he’s set to deliver on his ADP down the stretch with Tua Tagovailoa back. Hill has averaged 55.3 receiving yards with zero touchdowns over eight games without Tagovailoa in Miami, but he’s averaged 107.3 receiving yards and scored 21 touchdowns over 32 games with him (h/t RotoViz). Hill has averaged literally twice as many fantasy points with Tagovailoa on the field.

Moreover, Hill has seen a 28% target share from Tagovailoa this season, while Jaylen Waddle has seen a lowly 15%. The Dolphins shifted from last to nearly first in neutral pass rate with Tagovailoa back last week, and Miami’s offense would rank first in plays per game (68) and pass attempts per game (40!) during his three starts this season. Hill sat out practice Wednesday with a foot injury, but it was likely to rest after he was able to play through it last week.

Miami’s offense hasn’t looked as explosive this season even with Tagovailoa, but the volume is there for Hill to be a top-five fantasy WR down the stretch.