The Fantasy Football Numbers Do Lie: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine might be having the flukiest season ever

A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.

Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.

Jakobi Meyers’ WR27 rank is a lie

Meyers has beaten his ADP as the WR27 in fantasy points per game this season, but his usage gives him the upside to be a top-12 WR down the stretch. He owns a 40% air yards share and has averaged 9.9 targets since Davante Adams was traded, which would rank fourth on the season – behind only Malik Nabers (11.6), Cooper Kupp (10.4) and CeeDee Lamb (10.3). Brock Bowers has quickly emerged as the league’s best tight end, but Las Vegas’ offense has been extremely condensed.

A lack of touchdowns has hurt Meyers’ fantasy value, but he sports a 38% end zone target share without Adams and a previously tough WR schedule is about to become much more favorable. The Buccaneers have allowed the fourth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to WRs over the last five games, and Meyers’ TPRR (27%) and YPRR (2.63) both spike when his QB has been blitzed this season; Tampa Bay leads the league in blitzes. Aidan O’Connell threw for 340 yards (9.7 YPA) in Kansas City last week (while targeting Meyers 11 times), so there’s hope for the Raiders’ passing offense.

Meyers is a highly underrated receiver who might win fantasy leagues this year.

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Calvin Ridley’s WR40 rank is a lie

Ridley averaged 6.4 fantasy points (WR71) in six games with DeAndre Hopkins this season, but he’s averaged 12.9 (WR13) over six games since DHop was traded (h/t FTN). Ridley leads the NFL in air yards (776) and has averaged 8.5 targets and 82.7 receiving yards over that span, but modest touchdown production has prevented a fantasy explosion. More red-zone looks would help, but teammate Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is on an epic TD run screaming for regression. Ridley has also been unlucky while having multiple big plays nullified by penalties (or bad throws).

Will Levis has gotten 8.3 YPA while averaging 240.0 passing yards and 1.8 TDs over four games since returning from injury, so Tennessee’s passing offense can support a big finish from Ridley. A highly favorable upcoming schedule should also help, starting this week in a revenge game against the league’s worst pass defense. Ridley’s fantasy rank remains misleading, as he can be a top-10 WR down the stretch.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine’s eight touchdown catches are a lie

Westbrook-Ikhine suddenly ranks fourth in the league in touchdown catches this season, but he ranks 129th in receptions (among all pass catchers). He also ranks last in catches (20) among the 929 different instances a player recorded eight touchdowns over an eight-game span over the last 35 years. Westbrook-Ikhine has averaged a TD every 2.5 catches while the NFL average is 12.7. He’s seen one target in the red zone over the last month! And none inside the 10. Westbrook-Ikhine is the WR96 in expected fantasy points, just ahead of Mack Hollins.

NWI’s role has improved since moving into the starting lineup (18% target share), and the Titans’ WR schedule looks highly favorable rest of season. But few players in history have been a more obvious regression candidate than Westbrook-Ikhine.

Brian Thomas Jr.’s box score last week was a lie

Thomas Jr. was the WR13 last week, but he should’ve had a Jerry Jeudy type eruption. Thomas Jr. was open for a potential 77-yard touchdown in the second quarter, but Trevor Lawrence underthrew him for an interception instead. Mac Jones then missed a wide-open BTJ for a 69-yard TD during the opening drive of the second half.

Thomas Jr. also had another near 24-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter (although he’d later score on that drive). The rookie led the league in air yards (210), but an NFL-high 190 of them were unrealized. Thomas Jr. goes for 250 yards and four touchdowns in an alternate universe last week. BTJ (and his fantasy managers) deserved better.