Through 15 games with new rule, 63.5 percent of kickoffs have been touchbacks

The NFL’s new kickoff rule was supposed to make returns more common and touchbacks more rare. And through 15 games, it has. But not by much.

In the first 15 games of the 2024 season, 63.5 percent of kickoffs have gone for touchbacks. That’s a decline in touchbacks from last year, when 73.0 percent of kickoffs were touchbacks.

But it’s not the significant decline that was advertised when the NFL adopted the “dynamic” kickoff rule. The idea at the time was that most kickoffs would be returned, and that simply hasn’t happened. Most of the time, kicking teams are choosing to put the ball in the end zone, and returners are choosing not to take the ball out of the end zone.

The decision to spot the ball at the 30-yard line after touchbacks, rather than keeping the old XFL rule of putting the ball on the 35 after a touchback, has incentivized kicking teams to boot the ball deep. If the ball went out to the 35, kicking teams would be more likely to try to pin the receiving team deep in its own territory, which would lead to more returns.

The new rule is here for the 2024 season, but in 2025 the league will re-evaluate, and the teams will vote on whether to keep the rule, modify it, go back to the old kickoff rules or try something completely different. The early returns suggest the new rule hasn’t been as dynamic as the NFL hoped.