Trump-Harris Presidential Debate Underway (Live Coverage)

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris face off Tuesday night, with the stock market focused primarily on questions related to taxes and tariffs.

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The presidential race is tight. So even a tiny post-debate shift in support for either candidate could have an outsized effect.

9:09 p.m. ET

Trump Decries Inflation Under Biden-Harris

Trump said inflation has been the worst in the country’s history. He also said he’ll impose “substantial” tariffs, and said tariffs during his term didn’t spark inflation.

Harris said Trump left with a terrible economy. Trump said he did a great job during the pandemic.

9:06 p.m. ET

Harris Lays Out Plans For Middle Class

First question on economy. Are you better off four years ago?

Harris: “I am the only person on this stage that has a plan to lift up the middle class.” She called for a $6,000 child tax credit and $50,000 for small business startups.

9:03 p.m. ET

Harris-Trump Debate Underway

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have entered the debate stage. There is no audience.

8:41 p.m. ET

Futures Edge Lower Ahead Of Trump-Harris Face-Off

With the countdown to the presidential debate underway, futures edged lower after a mixed session Tuesday.

Dow Jones futures fell 0.1% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures declined 0.2%.

Trump-Harris Presidential Debate

The Trump-Harris debate will take place at 9 p.m. ET.

It’s the first and perhaps only debate between the GOP and Democratic presidential nominees for the remainder of the 2024 election. President Joe Biden’s disastrous performance in the June 27 debate spurred his exit from the race on July 21.

Polls show a closely divided race nationally and in key swing states.

It’s possible that whichever party wins the White House also will carry Congress, offering the opportunity for sweeping policy moves.

Harris, Trump Tax Plans

Former President Donald Trump wants to cut the corporate tax rate, currently 21%, to 15%. Vice President Harris wants to raise it to 28%. That could mean a major boost or reduction in S&P 500 earnings.

Harris wants to raise the effective top capital gains rate to 33% from the current 23.8%, though that’s less than the 44.6% that Biden favored. She also favors taxes on unrealized capital gains for the super wealthy. That could affect founders and major investors in key companies such as Tesla (TSLA), Microsoft (MSFT) and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL).

She also supports quadrupling the stock buyback tax to 4%. That could essentially wipe out the incentive for Microsoft, Google, Apple (AAPL) and other companies to buy back shares as a means to boost earnings.

Trump Wants To Be ‘Economy Candidate.’ Could Immigration Policy Bring It All Down?

Trump Tariff Hikes, Immigration

The Republican candidate favors imposing a 10% tariff on all imports and up to 60% on Chinese goods. That would cause major economic dislocations and trigger a new boost of inflation.

Trump also says he would deport millions of illegal immigrants, affecting key industries and the labor market.

Trump supporters on Wall Street generally focus on his tax plans and generally pro-business regulatory views, and believe his actual tariff and immigration policies will be scaled back considerably.

Deficit, Fed Impact

Harris and Trump policies, if fully realized, would likely swell already-large deficits substantially. That could drive up Treasury yields and discourage the Federal Reserve from cutting rates substantially.

Those would be negatives for the S&P 500.

Election 2024: Why The S&P 500 May Vote No On A Trump Or Harris Clean Sweep

What Could Trump, Harris Actually Do?

If Trump or Harris don’t have the support of Congress, their tax-and-spending plans may collect dust.

However, Trump would have substantial authority to raise tariffs on his own, as well as carry out massive deportations.

Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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